Possible Lowell Trade Precursor to Beltre Signing?
Posted by Matt Sisson on Thursday, December 10, 2009 at 11:27 am
The Boston Red Sox are reportedly in the process of trading third baseman Mike Lowell to the Texas Rangers for catcher Max Ramirez. Although the trade has yet to be finalized and is still being worked through, the rumor is that Boston will pay roughly $8-9 million of Lowell’s salary for the 2010 season. Last night Theo Epstein stated that one of the main goals for next season was to sure up the teams defense. In an interview with NESN last night, Epstein describes his team as a “bad defensive club, bottom 3″, replacing Lowell with Beltre would be a significant step in the right direction.
Lowell, who has always been an excellent defender, saw his range and effectiveness in the field drop significantly last season as a result to a hip injury during the end of the 2008 season. In 2009 Lowell’s UZR/150 dropped significantly from the 15.6 it was at in 2008 to -14.4 in 2009. Lowell’s -14.4 UZR/150 in 2009 was the worst of any third baseman who played at least 850 innings in both the American and National League. For those of you unfamiliar with UZR and UZR/150 here are some definitions of the metrics:
UZR – Ultimate Zone Rating in Runs Above Average (Arm+Double Play Runs+Range Runs+Error Runs)
UZR/150 – UZR Runs Above Average per 150 Defensive Games
It’s also important to remember that UZR and UZR/150 compares players from the same position for a single season so that a +21 at a harder position to play in 2009 is worth more than that of say a +21 at an easier position in the same year but may not mean the same thing at the same positions during a different season.
For further definitions of any of these terms please check out this
link.
According to
Fangraphs, 2009 was also the first time that Lowell failed to return more value than what he was paid in salary. From 2006 to 2008, Lowell gave Boston $48.7 million in value while being receiving $30.5 million in salary. In 2009, Lowell gave the Red Sox just $5.4 million in value while receiving $12.5 million in salary.
Adrian Beltre, the most likely candidate to replace Lowell at thirdbase, is a 12 year veteran seeking a long term deal at the age of 31. Beltre is an excellent defensive third baseman and despite coming off a disappointing year at the plate in ‘09, has shown a track record of being a decent hitter. What Boston likes about Beltre isn’t what he can do at the plate, its what he can do in the field. Beltre was rated at a
+21 UZR/150, the best of any third baseman in baseball in 2009. The Mariners received $18.5 million in value from Beltre while paying him $13.4 million. Now, not being able to tell what it would take to sign Beltre, its tough to tell what the difference in value versus salary would be. Using his past salary amounts and comparing it to his current and projected value amounts, it would likely be a large enough difference to make the deal worth it to Boston. If the Red Sox want to improve their defense, Beltre is their man at the hot corner.
Filed under
Main Page,
Matt Sisson · Tagged with
5 Million,
Adrian Beltre,
Baseball,
Boston Red Sox,
Catcher Max Ramirez,
Corne,
Defensive Games,
Definitions,
Disappointing Year,
Double Play,
Fangraphs,
Hot Corner,
Main Goals,
Metrics,
Mike Lowell,
Precursor,
Salary,
Step In The Right Direction,
Texas Rangers,
Third Baseman,
Ultimate Zone,
Uzr,
Veteran
