Posted by Bill Baer on Wednesday, December 2, 2009 at 5:48 am

Ken Rosenthal reports on FOX Sports that the Atlanta Braves have signed left-hander Billy Wagner, a Type A free agent, to a one-year, $7 million deal with a vesting option for a second year. The Braves also offered arbitration to both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. Like Wagner, Gonzalez and Soriano are also Type A free agents, meaning that if either declines his arbitration offer, the Braves will recoup the first round draft pick they lost.

Wagner appeared in only 17 games in 2009 with the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox. He will turn 39 in late July, and is only about 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery. The outspoken lefty hasn’t appeared in more than 50 games since 2007. Ignoring his small sample of innings in ‘09, has seen his strikeout rate decrease every season since ‘06, a pattern that has gone hand-in-hand with an increased reliance on his fastball: 68.2% in ‘06, 69.9% in ‘07, and 71.1% in ‘08.

FanGraphs has not valued Wagner at $7 million since ‘06. This seems like a risky signing for the Braves. Not only are they signing an injury-prone one-inning pitcher to a $7 million deal that can potentially vest into a second year, but they have also offered arbitration to two other high-profile relievers.

Rafael Soriano earned $6.35 million in ‘09. He’s been productive aside from an injury-shortened ‘08 season, so he will see his salary go up. Similarly, Mike Gonzalez has been very productive with one outlier season, also occurring in ‘08. He earned $3.45 million in ‘08. There is a chance that, if go to arbitration (which is not the most likely outcome, but still a risk that needs to be accounted for), the Braves could pay as much as $20 million to a trio of relievers that will only account for one-tenth of the team’s innings pitched — and that’s if they are all healthy and productive. The Braves had a $97 million payroll in ‘09, so about 20% of their ‘10 payroll would be eaten up by three relievers.

In a more likely scenario, both relievers will not head into an arbitration with the Braves, electing to move on to another team. When they sign new contracts, they together will net the Braves two first round draft picks and two supplemental picks, which erases the penalty for signing Wagner.

While that doesn’t seem so bad, the Braves could have simply offered arbitration to Soriano and Gonzalez, hoped that one would accept, and fill in the rest of the bullpen elsewhere. Instead, they spent a good deal of money on an aging, injury-prone reliever who, by the way, does not have the greatest reputation as a teammate.

Even if the Braves knew with absolute certainty that Soriano and Gonzalez both were heading for greener pastures, there are plenty of better options in free agency right now. Furthermore, the Braves’ most pressing need does not lie in the bullpen; it lies with their offense. First baseman Adam LaRoche was not offered arbitration, and they are currently looking at an outfield of Nate McLouth, Matt Diaz, Ryan Church, Gregor Blanco, and Jordan Schafer.

On the whole, this seems to be a misguided signing by Braves GM Frank Wren. With about $70 million already on the books, the Braves have about $25 million to play with to fix up the team for 2010. They chose to spend 28% of that on Billy Wagner, who if healthy, may pitch in 5% of the team’s innings. For the same amount or cheaper, they could have signed a first baseman or outfielder who will take over 10% of the team’s plate appearances.