Posted by Jeff Creps on Tuesday, December 1, 2009 at 7:33 pm

With trade talks ensuing and the rumor mill turning, it is time to address the Adrian Gonzalez trade market.

Long before Jed Hoyer took over as general manager of the San Diego Padres, it was known that there had to be a decision made about the future of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.  With this decision looming, it is time to examine potential suitors as the MLB Hot Stove heats up.

What teams are getting

Gonzalez, a two-time All Star, has been nothing but stellar since entrenching himself as a starter in 2006.  Since then, he has won two Gold Glove awards and led his team in runs, RBI, and HRs each of the last three seasons.

It is no secret that he has been the only consistent force in the Padres offense for some time, giving them a Win Probability Added (WPA) over the last three seasons of 4.92, 3.97, and 4.26.  Gonzalez’s walk rate has increased every year of his career, while keeping his strikeout rate relatively stable.  He has finished in the top 10 in home runs each of the last two seasons while playing his home games in a park that allows 25 percent fewer runs and 28 percent fewer homeruns than the MLB average.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are the most obvious solution to this seemingly difficult equation.  They can offer major league ready talent in starting pitcher Clay Buchholz, with a strong selection of blue-chip prospects to sweeten the deal.  Jed Hoyer’s connection to Boston also makes this a likely destination; Hoyer learned under top GM Theo Epstein before making his way west to take over the Padres.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have had a hole at first base since the departure of Mark Teixiera and somehow Martin Prado does not seem like the answer.  It will be Bobby Cox’s last season, so Atlanta may be looking to make a deal that will allow Cox one final division title before riding off in the sunset.  The only hang-up in this deal may be the Padres’ desire of über prospect Jason Heyward.  Heyward, a power-hitting right fielder, appears ready to explode into the majors and might just be the man to make San Diegans forget about Gonzalez.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit’s need to cut payroll may be what holds them back from acquiring the Gold Glove first baseman.  If GM Dave Dombrowski can convince ownership to invest in Gonzalez, he and perennial All-Star Miguel Cabrera would form one of the best duos in the league.  Although Cabrera, a first baseman, showed signs of improved defense in 2009, 2.8 UZR, the Tigers may already be planning on moving Cabrera to the DH position.  Because of Cabrera’s less- than-stellar career efforts with the glove, Gonzalez would also offer the Tigers a huge upgrade in the field.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Although Adrian Gonzalez would fill a huge power void in the Dodger lineup, it is highly unlikely that L.A. would be willing to meet the intra-division asking price.  Hoyer might be new at his position, but unless he thought Gonzalez was on the verge of breaking down, he would not trade him to the Padres’ biggest rival.  If Dodgers GM Ned Colletti did make the call, he would more than likely hear the names Matt Kemp and Chad Billingsley before telling Hoyer to have a great day.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants have been longing for a big bat in their lineup ever since a solid left fielder vacated San Francisco.  Unfortunately for Tim Lincecum, and all of the other pitchers facing a lack of run support, the Giants will come up against the same problem as their Southern Californian rivals; an intra-division trade.  Look for the Giants to make a serious offer somewhere in the Buster Posey-Matt Cain spectrum should Gonzalez become openly available.

New York Mets

The New York Mets and their $135 million dollar payroll are always looking to steal headlines from their cross-town foes.  After three straight disappointing seasons and another Yankees Championship, the Mets are ready to spend and trade their way back in to relevance.  With all of their trades in recent years, the Mets farm system lacks a solid base of major league ready talent, but the idea of Fernando Martinez stalking the alleys in Petco Park may turn a few heads in the Padres front office. On a side note: I’d like to think the Yankees are out of this race after their signing of Mark Teixiera last year — but after all they are the Yankees.

Seattle Mariners

Seattle may present more of a case of desire than ability.  After emptying the system to acquire Eric Bedard (*Seattle fans collectively shaking their heads*) the Mariners may not have the prospects to convince San Diego to part with their hometown hero.  But after finishing the season surprisingly well, the Mariners front office may see this as a chance to convince Felix Hernandez and Ichiro Suzuki not to jump ship to a contender in a few years.

Dark horse – Chicago White Sox

Yes, the White Sox are coming off a disappointing season.  Yes, they took on a Yankee-like amount of payroll at the 2009 trade deadline last season.  But make no mistake about it, they are in win-now mode.  After letting slugger Jermaine Dye walk this offseason, the Sox will be looking to add more punch to their team.  Combine that with the great early returns that Peavy showed (3-0, 18Ks, 1.35 ERA) and you just may have a match waiting to happen.  Gonzalez would provide current first baseman Paul Konerko with a much-needed move to the DH spot to help prolong his productive offensive career into his late 30s.

The Padres would ideally like to keep Gonzalez out of the NL, but they may run into a lack of AL suitors.  San Diego will require at least one major league ready player to show return on investment and keep what is sure to be an uneasy fan base at bay.

Jeff Creps is a contributing author at Baseball Daily Digest. His work can also be found at San Diego News Network, where this article originally appeared.  Follow him on Twitter.