Posted by Michael Street on Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at 7:25 pm

This year doesn’t have the high-voltage interest generated by Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami. In fact, it’s more likely that the recent tsunami of Eastern talent is waning with several players likely returning to Japan, as indicated in last week’s column.

But there are two significant Japanese pitchers who have announced their intention to try to make the Pacific leap to MLB. Thanks, as always, to Patrick at NPBTracker for some great intel on these guys.

The first story actually turned out to be a non-story, as Yusei Kikuchi, the premier amateur arm in the NPB draft, backed off his early comments that he would pull a Tazawa and go straight to MLB.

A lanky 18 year-old, six-foot lefty, Kikuchi throws in the mid-nineties and mixes in a slider, curve and has the usual control problems you’d expect from a kid his age. When he was juggling his decision, people were pretty high on his chances, and several MLB teams scouted him.

He did face the so-called Tazawa Rule, which would have barred him from returning for Japanese baseball for three years (as a high-school pitcher) if he’d skipped the draft. He wasn’t clear whether he was influenced by that rule but it had to be a factor.

Ultimately, Kikuchi had drawn interest from the Mets, Yanks, Mariners, and Indians (all teams with established Japanese presences), but decided to stay in Japan in the end. He said, “for now I’m closing the door to the Majors, and after becoming a top pitcher in Japan I want to take on the world.”

Barring any MLB team paying a posting fee (as Japan did with Dice-K) that means Kikuchi has nine years to prove himself in NPB before reaching the free agency that would allow him to sign with any team, in Japan or elsewhere.

Two current NPB pitchers have reached that threshold and have indicated that they want to try their luck in the States. Hisanori Takahashi and Ryota Igarashi have both announced intentions to play in the States.

In light of the mixed results from Uehara and Kawakami, as well as down years from Wang and Dice-K, it’s likely the market for these pitchers will be depressed. They aren’t high-profile names like Uehara, Tazawa and Kawakami affecting their price tags as well.

But who are they, and where might they fit in?

Hisanori Takahashi was once a very good pitcher for the great Yomiuri Giants, but has been inconsistent of late. A first-round pick for the Giants (perennial contenders, big spenders and the NPB equivalent of the Yankees), Takahashi and the Giants made it to the Japan Series his rookie year, in 2000.

Takahashi twirled a Game Five shutout in the Series, en route to a six-game victory by Yomiuri, in a season in which he finished with a 9-6 record with a 3.18 ERA. He slipped back a bit to a 9-9, 3.94 ERA 2001 season before righting the ship in 2002, notching a 10-4 record and 3.09 ERA.

The Giants would win the Japan Series again that season, and his Game 4 victory sealed a sweep of the Seibu Lions. Neither the Giants nor Takahashi would fare so well in succeeding seasons, however.

From 2003-2005, Takahashi would not record a winning season, with his worst campaign, a 5-10, 5.44 ERA 2004. The Giants pushed him to the bullpen in 2006 as a result, where he served as a co-closer, notching 15 saves despite a 4.94 ERA.

They shifted him back to the rotation in 2007, where he had a rebound year, starting 27 games and earning a 14-4 record with a 2.75 ERA, a career season. But 2008 was a return to mediocre (albeit winning) form, winning 8 and losing 5 with a 4.01 ERA. This past season, he again had a fine year, his 2.94 ERA leading to a 10-6 record.

The inconsistency of late is clearly an issue, as well as his decent, if unimpressive secondary stats. 7.2 K/9 and 2.9 K/BB are great, but lacking the dominance of recent imports like Uehara or Kawakami. Of particular concern is his 1.4 HR/9, which is elevated even by MLB standards. NPB is not a homer-happy league, however, and Takahashi was often among the league leaders in that category.

Major leaguers are more likely to punish his pitches. Uehara, Kawakami and Dice-K have all struggled with the long ball in MLB, though none of them had problems with it in NPB to compare to Takahashi. All three are superior pitchers to Takahashi, so he’s not likely to garner too much interest as a starter.

As a middling 34-year-old, he’s probably going to get a minor league deal or cheap Major League one for a team hungry for pitching and willing to gamble. He most likely fits as a long reliever, seventh-inning guy or lefty specialist. No word yet on any teams that might be interested in Takahashi.

Ryota Igarishi has a bit of a higher ceiling, and his prospects are better as a career reliever. Regular readers of this column will know that Japanese pitchers tend to do better as MLB relievers than starters — Hideo Nomo’s the only one to notably break that mold, and the jury’s still out on Dice-K.

There are several theories on that front, from the breaking-ball philosophy of Japanese baseball to the lack of stamina (or abusive pitching regimens), but the success of Japanese relievers is undeniable.

The other thing Igarishi’s got going for him is a thunderbolt for an arm. His 98 MPH fastball tied him for the fastest heater ever clocked in NPB (a record that has since been broken); he complements that crazy heat with a forkball, a great combo for a late-inning reliever.

It may have been that overpowering fastball that led to his Tommy John surgery in 2007 following an awful 2006 and an injury-shortened 2005. Otherwise, he’s been fairly solid, with some control problems that may also drop his stock a notch.

The second choice of the Yakult Swallows in 1997, Igarishi didn’t have an impressive debut, notching one save and a 4.91 ERA, but that was his poorest year until 2006. In between, he served mostly as setup man, first to Shingo Takatsu (another NPB import) and later Chang-Yong Lim (“Mister Zero,” the outstanding closer for second-place surprise South Korea in this year’s WBC).

After Takatsu left in 2004, Igarishi had a fine year as Yakult’s closer, recording 37 saves and a 2.66 ERA, his third-best ERA mark in his career. But he lost the job after his 2005 injuries and never regained it.

He did bounce back well from Tommy John in 2008, with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP that was the best in his career. 2009 was a bit of a step back, but still a solid performance as he had a 3.19 ERA.

Both seasons since his surgery have seen drop-offs in his strikeout rate, though his velocity remained about the same and his other peripherals improved. Through 2006, he averaged 10.4 K/9, better than one per inning. Post-surgery, he slipped back to 8.0 K/9, which is still impressive, but not quite as strong.

Surgery — or his throwing mechanics afterward — may have sapped him of some strikeouts, but it’s sharpened his control. Before TJS, he had a K/BB rate of 2.5, but has jumped to 3.3 since. More impressively, he’s nearly halved his HR/9 rate from an even 1.0 to .6.

That would certainly suggest he’s gained some control, and may be keeping his fastball low enough in the zone that guys can’t ride the high one outside the park. Both trends bode well for his potential in MLB, where a thunderbolt for an arm isn’t enough if you can’t place it in the zone.

Pittsburgh, which has gotten farther into the Asian market this year, and San Francisco (a town with a sizable Asian population, yet has signed few Asian stars to tap that resource) have both indicated some interest in Igarashi. My money’s on Pittsburgh, who have a better opportunity for him with a struggling Matt Capps and a greater desire to sign him.

He may not get the chance to close right away but should be in the mix for high-leverage innings, depending on his destination. Wherever he ends up, Igarishi will be the one to watch, both in the offseason and next year.