Posted by Bill Baer on Saturday, November 14, 2009 at 5:02 pm

2009 was not kind to the New York Mets. They lost 92 games, their highest total since ‘03. Fred Wilpon found himself involved in the Bernie Madoff ordeal. Eighteen Mets players spent time on the disabled list — so many that they became fodder for a Sporcle quiz. Daniel Murphy led the team with 12 home runs*; David Wright only had 10 a year after hitting 33.

* Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard hit more home runs than the Mets’ top four HR-hitters… combined (45 to 42).

Seven Mets will hit free agency, including Carlos Delgado and Gary Sheffield. If ever there was a time to be pessimistic about the Mets, it seems like it would be now, but this Phillies fan sees light at the end of the tunnel for the orange-and-blue from Queens.

Everybody is coming out of the infirmary, barring more bad luck down the road. That’s right — the Mets are hoping to get 600 plate appearances each out of Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes in 2010, and 33 starts from Johan Santana. Despite having to retool the back of the starting rotation, the front of the bullpen, and the bottom of the lineup, the Mets offense should once again rise near the top if their core group — Reyes, Beltran, Wright — stays healthy. The Mets still have one of the best starters in all of baseball in Santana and one of the best closers in Francisco Rodriguez.

Minaya has $91 million on the books already due to seven players and seven arbitration cases to deal with before addressing free agency. Even if Minaya offers all seven players arbitration and all accept, it all shouldn’t cost him more than $10 million. Of course, some won’t be offered arbitration (Tim Redding) and some may not accept.

Last season’s payroll approached $140 million. Factoring in arbitration, Minaya will be about $35 million under that. Even with a payroll cut, the Mets can go shopping in free agency. They can make a big splash for Chone Figgins, who appears poised to make about $10 million annually, but more realistically, they will need to look for players underneath the upper crust.

The Mets need a first baseman or a left fielder, depending on where they choose to play Daniel Murphy. In 2009, Murphy’s defense was sub-par in left (-10.4 UZR/150) but above-average at first base (7.6). Assuming the Mets don’t mind a light-hitting first baseman, Marlon Byrd would be a good fit for the outfield. He had a wOBA of .345 or better in each of his three seasons in Texas and has generally played good defense. In a relatively small sample of over 1,000 defensive innings over three seasons, Byrd has put up an 11.9 UZR/150 in left field.

Should the Mets want a heavier bat at first base while putting Murphy in left, re-signing Carlos Delgado wouldn’t be a bad option (though it should be a last-ditch effort), assuming it’s a short-term deal with incentives. Otherwise, Russell Branyan is the only appealing free agent first baseman available. The Mariners are trying to keep him in Seattle, but he wants a multi-year deal. The Mets could jump in and offer a two-year deal with a mutual option for a third.

In terms of a trade, the Toronto Blue Jays are open to trading Lyle Overbay. The Jays recently rejected a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks involving Chris Snyder, which shows that the price isn’t very high for the first baseman due $7.95 million in 2010, the last leg of his contract. Overbay was worth 2 WAR and generally plays average defense with a career UZR/150 of -0.4 at first.

The Mets have options at first base and in left field, and none of them are particularly expensive. Furthermore, they can restock the bench cheaply, either by re-signing some of the familiar faces like Fernando Tatis and Alex Cora, or by bargain-binning in free agency with players like Adam Kennedy,  Alex Gonzalez, and Eric Hinske.

Next, the Mets would need to add depth to the starting rotation. While it would be nice to add John Lackey to slot in behind Johan Santana, it is not necessary and would make it much more difficult for the Mets to fill in the other areas of need. Adding Jon Garland, Joel Piniero, Jarrod Washburn, or Jason Marquis — all Type-B free agents — would be beneficial and would not be terribly expensive (in the $5-8 million range with two- and three-year deals), especially considering the Mets would not lose any draft picks. Taking fliers on Ben Sheets or Rich Harden with incentive-laden contracts is another route, if Minaya wants to roll dice. Harden would be a safer but more expensive bet than Sheets.

The Mets can add two  lower-tier free agent starters for the price of John Lackey. While Lackey would undoubtedly outproduce either of the two Type-B’s, adding only one starter may guarantee Oliver Perez a spot in the starting rotation. Lackey-Perez will likely not out-produce — as an example — Piniero-Marquis.

Moving onto the bullpen… the option on J.J. Putz’s contract was declined, so the Mets could use a reliable set-up man. The Colorado Rockies declined the option on Rafael Betancourt, now a Type A free agent. He posted a 2.73 ERA with a 3.05 K/BB ratio and it wasn’t too lucky according to his 2.92 FIP. Betancourt was paid $3.35 million last season, so it is feasible for the Mets to sign him to something looking like a two-year, $8 million deal with an option for a third year. He did have a rough 2008, but it is the only blemish on his seven-year Major League resume.

The rest of the bullpen can be reliably filled out by familiar faces from 2009: Pedro Feliciano, Bobby Parnell, Brian Stokes, Sean Green, Jon Niese, etc.

In short, here are the Mets’ priorities:

• Find a position for David Murphy, either in left field or at first base
• Find someone to fill the other position (realsitic ideal: Marlon Byrd in left or Russell Branyan at first)
• Add rotation depth with Type B free agents (realistic ideal: Joel Piniero or Jason Marquis, and Rich Harden with an incentive-laden contract)
• Be liberal in adding cheap free agents to the bench (such as Adam Kennedy and/or Eric Hinske, or Round 2 with Endy Chavez)
• Find a reliable set-up reliever for Francisco Rodriguez (realistic ideal: Rafael Betancourt)
• Let young pitchers fill other bullpen roles

The Mets really can patch up all their flaws for around $30 million in 2010.

All told, the Mets aren’t that far away from being serious contenders for the NL East once again. Every NL East team, including the Phillies, has at least one flaw that needs to be fixed. The Phillies need a third baseman and at least one more reliable bench player; the Marlins need a corner infielder, some depth in the starting rotation, and a reliable closer; the Braves need to revamp the bullpen now that Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez are both free agents and unlikely to return to Atlanta; and the Nationals are the Nationals.

The Mets have been a laughingstock for three years running, but it would be a fool’s errand to prematurely count them out in 2010 considering how easy it is for them to go from a .500-ish team to a serious division contender. The rest of the NL East is counting on Minaya’s incompetence to keep the Mets playing the role of pretender.