Posted by Michael Street on Wednesday, November 11, 2009 at 12:35 am

As we head into the 2009-10 Hot Stove League, let’s take a look at the fate of this year’s Asian free agents, including several who may return to Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan.

Tops on the list, of course, is Hideki Matsui, whose World Series MVP—the first by an Asian-born player, as well as the first by a DH—certainly boosted his stock at just the right time.

Most observers don’t think that the Yanks will retain him, as they’d like to have more flexibility at the DH spot, and his knees make him a tough play in LF. That will also keep other teams from taking a chance on him, too.

He’ll stay in the AL for sure because of this, although he has previously  expressed his willingness to shift to 1B. He’s not the prototypical power-hitter at that spot, but he wouldn’t be the worst fit there.

Seattle has been referenced most often as a possible landing spot for him, in part because of the Japanese ownership. That will depend on the fate of Ken Griffey; it’s doubtful that the Mariners would sign two left-handed DH’s who can’t play the field. Moving him to 1B would depend on what happens with Russell Branyan, another lefty with injury issues.

Beyond Seattle, I’ve heard Chicago mentioned, while Cleveland and Toronto have holes at 1B and DH, respectively. He’ll be the prize of the Asian free agent class, and one of the best DH’s on the market.

Close behind Matsui is another Yankee—Chien-Ming Wang was the first Yankee with back-to-back 19 win seasons since Tommy John in 1979-80. Wang accomplished the feat in 2006 and 2007, when he was one of the best New York arms on the staff.

His devastating sinkerball didn’t lead to amazing strikeout numbers (3.9 K/9 in 2006-7), but his stingy HR rate (0.5 and 0.4 HR/9 in ‘06-7, both AL-leading rates) and a great defense behind him meant a 3.67 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over that span.

Since then, he’s lost most of the past two years to various injuries, from the foot injury that ended his year in 2008 to the related shoulder problems that dogged him this year. One of the other big decisions for the Yanks in the 2009 offseason is whether they will offer him arbitration or release him to  allow him to become a free agent.

With the health of his shoulder still a question mark (the dreaded Dr. Andrews has been examining him), the Yanks probably will release him, then try to re-sign him. If his arm problems are truly behind him, they could regret giving him a pass; on the other hand, allowing his two excellent seasons to overbalance his recent two injury-riddled season could be the right move.

If they can get him for cheap, they’ll probably sign him, but if Wang wants to try to get a higher price elsewhere, look for another team to take a chance on this Taiwanese righty.

Boston took a chance on Takashi Saito, who rewarded them with 55.2 IP of 2.43 ERA, 1.35 WHIP baseball. Not bad, but his peripherals slipped dramatically—his 8.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9 were all career lows, and well below his career averages of 10.9, 2.8, and 0.6.

The Red Sox didn’t like this trend, either, and released him on October 16, rather than picking up his $6M option, and he cleared waivers (meaning other teams thought that price was too high, too).

Still, Boston is working on a deal to resign him, and given this desire, they’ll probably succeed. If they don’t, there will be quite a few other teams looking to ink the former closer and All-Star.

In other Boston news, Hideki Okajima’s two-year contract has expired. Like Saito, he had a relatively sub-par year; his 3.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, and 1.2 HR/9 were all MLB career lows.

This may drive Okajima’s price down somewhat, but he’s arbitration eligible, and should return to the Sox next year, too.

Several other lesser Asian players are also free agents, but most of them may return to Japan to finish their career in NPB, much as Kenji Johjima did last month.

Masahide Kobayashi had a great career in Japan, and it looks like he’ll be returning there to finish it, after struggling in MLB. He was one of Japan’s best closers, with a 2.79 career ERA and 227 saves, only the third closer in NPB history to reach 200 saves.

In MLB with the Indians, he started weak and finished even weaker, notching 6 saves (blowing 3) in his first season, with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP and middling ratios. He got even worse in 2009, spending much of the season in AAA, where he still couldn’t dominate, with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP.

His two-year deal with Cleveland ended this year, and he’s announced his desire to return to NPB, hopefully to get the final 17 saves to get him to the magic 250. Reaching  that number will get him induction into Meikyukai, the baseball “friendship club” often confused with the official Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame.

I explain about Meikyukai in my piece about Kaz Matsui earlier in the year, but it’s like a separate, quasi-Hall, into which players are instantly admitted once they reach 2,000 hits, 200 wins or 250 saves. Kobayashi is undoubtedly getting into the real Japanese Hall of Fame, too, and we wish him the best.

While in Japan, Kobayashi formed the famous “YFK” relief corps on the Chiba Lotte Marines (where Bobby Valentine once managed). Masa was the “K,” Soichi Fujita was the “F” and the “Y” was Yasuhiko Yabuta, who also tried his luck in MLB.

Yabuta signed with the Royals the same year that Kobayashi signed with Cleveland, and with worse results. He had been the weakest link in the YFK trio, registering a 4.03 ERA with 7 career saves.

With Kansas City, Yabuta put up a 7.42 ERA, and 1.82 WHIP in mostly low-leverage relief innings. Sent to the Royals’ AAA Omaha affiliate, he did a bit better, putting up a 4.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 86 IP. 2009 saw a bit of a AAA turnaround, as his 3.55 ERA and 1.23 WHIP were backed up with a 10.4 K/9.

Kansas City didn’t think it was enough to pick up his $4M 2010 option, so Yabuta is a free agent. Though he hasn’t announced his plans, it’s not likely that he’ll be back in MLB, unless it’s at a substantial discount on a minor-league deal.

I was skeptical when the Blue Jays signed Ken Takahashi, a middling 40-year-old lefty with a 4.23 ERA and a 66-87 record in NPB. But he was better than I expected, and better even than his two younger, and more famous counterparts, above.

After being released by the Blue Jays, Takahashi was quickly signed by the Mets, where he had a pretty good start, appearing in 15 games and registering a 3.00 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Still, they demoted him, and he did about as well with the AAA Buffalo Bisons, where he had a 1-3 record, a 2.38 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP.

This wasn’t anything spectacular, but the Mets had such attrition in their pitching staff that he returned at the end of August and he did even better. In 13 games and 9.1 IP and a 2.89 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

That could have earned him a contract for next year, but Takahashi instead asked the team to release him so he could return to Japan. The Mets did—perhaps reluctantly, given how few arms they have—and we wish him well.

Though he hasn’t had an impressive major league career, Tomokazu Ohka has the longevity—he’s been in MLB since 1999, and has put up about average numbers with six different teams: 51-68 record in 178 starts, a 4.26 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, with just 5.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9 and a much more respectable 2.5 BB/9.

Of late, Ohka has spent more time in the minors than the majors–including all of 2008—where he’s also registered middling numbers. In his 7 seasons, he’s got a 3.72 ERA, 1.25 WHIP; this past season, with AAA Columbus, he put up  3-3 record in 9 starts, a 3.42 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

Ohka’s a toss-up; he’s been in the States so long that there would likely be a team who would sign him, but several NPB teams have expressed an interest in him, too.

Lastly, So Taguchi was signed by the Cubs in part to help Kosuke Fukudome settle into Spring Training. Given how well Fukudome has done this year, Taguchi’s likely not going to return to MLB. Taguchi, the only NPB/MLB position player with two World Series rings, could return to Japan.

This year, it seems like the tide is flowing back to Japan, but we’ll look at some potential new NPB arrivals on our shores next week.