Posted by Jeff Lubbers on Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 5:03 pm

It is a tribute to Mariano Rivera’s dominance that his most recent outing is being dissected in such a way.

Tom Verducci pointed out that despite not scoring any runs against Rivera in Game 2, the Phillies were able to claim at least something of a moral victory by forcing him to throw 39 pitches in the process of his obtaining a two-inning save.  Moral victories are virtually meaningless in the playoffs but reaching base three times against Rivera at least gave the Phillies hope that if they do face another late-inning deficit they at least stand a fighting chance to make a comeback.

According to Verducci, Rivera has thrown more than 39 pitches only twice in the playoffs and both were in potential clinching games (game 7 of the 2001 World Series and game 4 of the 2004 ALCS).  How has Rivera responded in subsequent appearances when throwing more than 39 pitches in the regular season?

While such a relatively high number of pitches thrown is not completely unchartered territory for Rivera on the other hand it is certainly not familiar territory.  Since becoming the Yankees’ full-time closer in 1997 Rivera has thrown more than 39 pitches only 9 times in 13 seasons.  Four of those appearances came in 1997 and the most recent was back in 2005.

Looking at Rivera’s nine appearances following each of his 40+ pitch performances, Rivera has mostly been his normal dominant self.  In each of those subsequent appearances he has thrown exactly one inning and recorded an ERA of 1.00.  However, his WHIP was higher than normal at 1.44.

More often than not, however, Rivera was given more days off than the one he would have if he is to pitch in game 3:

Number of Days Off Following 40+ Pitch Performance in Regular Season:

0 – 3 times

1 – 1 time

2 – 3 times

5 – 1 time

6 – 1 time

The average number of pitches Rivera threw in these appearances was 16, though in the four such appearances since 2000 he only averaged 11 per appearance.  His next appearance against the high-powered offense of the Phillies will likely result in more than 16 pitches.

While Rivera’s effectiveness for game 3 is certainly of the utmost importance to the Yankees they also need him for the entire series.  In looking at the five appearances after each of Rivera’s 40+ pitch regular season appearances he has reverted to his dominant form.  In those 45 appearances he has thrown 41.2 innings, recorded an ERA of 1.73 and a WHIP of 1.18.  It is worth noting, however, that in the first three appearances following each of his 40+ pitch outings Rivera never pitched on three consecutive days (and pitched on two consecutive days only three times), which would be potentially required of him if he is to pitch in Games 3-5, barring a rainout.

While Joe Girardi will certainly not hesitate to lean on Rivera as much as possible for the remainder of the series, no player is completely unaffected by fatigue.  While none of these factors represent a huge red flag for the Yankees, given that:

1) Rivera has rarely thrown 40 or more pitches in an appearance in the latter half of his career,

2) When he did he most likely had two or more days off before his next appearance,

3) Rivera also threw 34 pitches in closing out game 6 of the ALCS, and

4) The shakiness of the Yankees’ bullpen sans Rivera (4.74 ERA, 2.16 WHIP – yes, that’s correct)

…all give the Phillies some hope for scoring runs off both Rivera and the rest of the Yankees’ bullpen for the remainder of the series.