Posted by Matt Sisson on Thursday, October 29, 2009 at 10:07 am

This interesting bit of information came through on the SABR-L yesterday and its focus on teams entering the World Series with better records than their opponents.  Interestingly enough, the results may not be exactly what you expected to see.   SABR member Frank Vaccaro took a look at the results of the World Series dating back to 1903, wondering if a 10 win advantage during the regular season is a indicator for success.   Turns out, that it may not be…

Vaccaro writes:

“Since 1903, the 2009 World Series will be the 100th Series in which one team “has more wins” than the other. Five Series’, not counted here, matched two teams that had the same win total: 1903, 49, 51, 58, and 96.  Looking at the data, and not certain that valid sample sizes even exist, I do notice three patterns. 1) Teams that enter a W.S. with totals of 1 to 5 wins greater than their opponent have a 17-23 record (40 W.S.). 2) Teams that enter a W.S. with totals of 6 to 12 wins greater than their opponent have a 24-24 record (48 W.S.). 3) Teams that enter a W.S. with a total of 13 or more wins than their opponent have a 9-2 record (11 W.S.).”

Based on those 40 World Series match up’s, The teams with more wins, won exactly the same number of championships as the team who came in with 6-12 wins less.

Vaccaro goes on to list the last 99 World Series in which one team had a regular season win advantage, shown from the perspective of the team with that “win advantage”: (“06″ for example, is “2006″)

23 game advantage, 0-1 record. Won: none, Lost: 1906
18 game advantage, 1-0 record. Won: 32, Lost: none
16 game advantage, 4-0 record. Won: 27 44 61 98
15 game advantage, 1-0 record. Won: 1907
14 game advantage, 0-1 record. Won: none, Lost: 54
13 game advantage, 3-0 record. Won: 1905 75 86
12 game advantage, 3-5 record. Won: 1909 73 84, Lost: 74 80 90 95 06
11 game advantage, 1-0 record. Won: 15
10 game advantage, 5-5 record. Won: 30 36 38 40 05, Lost: 45 85 87 88 03
9 game advantage, 3-2 record. Won: 1908 39 67, Lost: 18 69
8 game advantage, 2-1 record. Won: 19 83, Lost: 33
7 game advantage, 3-5 record. Won: 37 50 89, Lost: 35 43 62 00 04
6 game advantage, 7-6 record. Won: 28 29 48 68 70 97 07, Lost: 31 34 46 53 59 64
5 game advantage, 3-6 record. Won: 20 76 78, Lost: 13 14 63 65 99 08
4 game advantage, 3-3 record. Won: 56 81 02, Lost: 21 71 79
3 game advantage, 3-5 record. Won: 23 42 47, Lost: 16 57 72 82 01
2 game advantage, 6-5 record. Won: 11 12 17 55 66 77, Lost: 10 26 60 92 93
1 game advantage, 2-4 record. Won: 41 91, Lost: 22 24 25 52

Take from it what you will…