BBA: AL and NL MVP
Posted by Bill Baer on Saturday, October 24, 2009 at 12:27 pm
One of the current projects of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance is award balloting, done in a style similar to that of the Baseball Writers Association of America. Every “area” will have votes cast by its blogger representatives. From the Philadelphia region, myself and the crew at Fire Eric Bruntlett will be voting on all of the awards. Regions with more representatives will have the votes split up, with some voting for MVP, others for Cy Young, and so on. It’s a great and intriguing project, so make sure to stop by the BBA website for the final tallies.
Today, I will cast my ballots for the AL and NL Most Valuable Player awards. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts whether you agree or disagree.
Previous balloting:
- October 19: AL and NL Cy Young
- October 14: AL and NL Rookies of the Year.
- October 11: AL and NL Managers of the Year
American League
The Joe Mauer vs. Mark Teixeira argument created a firestorm during the regular season, but it’s not really debatable. According to FanGraphs, Mauer has been worth 8.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) without accounting for catcher defense or base running. Teixeira has only been worth 5.2. There is nearly a two-win difference between the two simply for their respective positions: Mauer gets a 5.4 run (or about a half-win) boost, while Tex loses 12.2 for a 17.6 run difference.
Oh, you thought I was going to pick Joe Mauer. He’s a justifiable candidate, of course, but there’s a more deserving player out there who will be overshadowed a la Javier Vazquez, who only received eight points in BDD NL Cy Young voting. That player would be Tampa Bay Rays jack-of-all-trades Ben Zobrist.
Zobrist, according to FanGraphs, has been worth 8.5 WAR to Mauer’s 8.2 when you add up hitting, fielding (sans Mauer’s), replacement, and positional runs. Per Baseball Prospectus, Mauer has cost his team about three runs on the bases while Zobrist has only cost the Rays .2 runs.
To crown Mauer the MVP statistically, we would have to assume that Mauer’s defense would be worth about 10 fielding runs, and I don’t think that assumption can be made, as Mauer allowed the second-most passed balls — nine — in the American League and had the lowest range factor among qualified catchers according to ESPN.
Lastly, I also penalize Mauer –very slightly — for missing the first month of the season.
The top-ten AL MVPs:
- Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays
- Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
- Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
- Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
- Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
- Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
- Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
- Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
- Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
- C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees
National League
This is a fairly simple pick: Albert Pujols. He led the National League in runs, OBP, SLG, and HR; hit the second-most doubles; and was third in RBI and walks. Oh, and he also stole 16 bases in 20 attempts (80%). FanGraphs values Pujols’ bat at 72 batting runs, nearly 17 runs more (or about 1.7 wins) more than his closest competitor, Prince Fielder.
Pujols also played slightly above-average defense, and his overall base running only cost his team about half a win.
It’s a no-brainer: Pujols is the NL MVP.
Your NL top-ten:
- Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
- Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
- Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies
- Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins
- Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
- Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
- Javier Vazquez, Atlanta Braves
- Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
- Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
- Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
