Posted by Eric Polsky on Friday, October 16, 2009 at 4:27 am

Who can forget MLB’s marketing campaign from 2007, when “comedian” Dane Cook adamantly declared that “There’s Only One…October!”  Well unfortunately Mr. Cook was wrong, as MLB had another “October” in 2008 and we’re in the midst of one right now. We also had over a hundred “Octobers” before that.  Many players currently involved in this October’s playoffs can also attest to that fact, as they have participated in other such Octobers. Thankfully, I have not seen Mr. Cook make this statement again this season.

With so many variables involved in a seven-game playoff series, it is difficult to focus on just one and say that it holds a significant amount of weight. But when this year’s LCS teams are as evenly matched as they are, any slight edge might help to distinguish the teams if you must choose to predict a winner. After all, “October” is when the pressure builds, the temperature drops, and the best players face each other.  I decided to take a look into this factor and break down the teams in terms of playoff experience, using “October” statistics prior to 2009.

NLCS 

Los Angeles Dodgers
Hitters: Total combined playoff games: 325, Plate appearances: 1374, BA .255, OBP .337, OPS .721
Pitchers: Total combined playoff games: 29, Innings Pitched: 84.1, W-L: 5-8, 1 SV, ERA 4.43, WHIP 1.33

Most of the Dodgers’ regulars had playoff experience in last season’s NLDS and NLCS, but only a select few have had any playoff experience in addition to that.
Mostly due to his appearances with the Red Sox and Indians, Manny Ramirez has the most post-season experience of the Dodgers’ hitters with 459 plate appearances. He has 28 HR, .286 BA, .550 SLG and a .949 OPS in those games. Perhaps he’s worthy of a Mr. October tag. Other hitters with noteworthy experience include Rafael Furcal who has 137 plate appearances, mostly with Atlanta (.234 BA, .675 OPS, 11 SB), Juan Pierre (87 PA, .312 BA, .812 OPS – mostly in 2003 with Florida), and Casey Blake (78 PA, .260 BA, .682 OPS – mostly with Cleveland in 2006)
The Dodgers also made the playoffs in 2006 but were swept by the Mets. The only current Dodger hitters to appear in that three game series were Andre Ethier, Russel Martin, Rafael Furcal and James Loney. In 2004, the Dodgers lost in the NLDS to the Cardinals, but nobody from that team is currently with L.A. However, ironically, Jayson Werth of the current Phillies was a member of that team and hit two homers in 17 plate appearances (.286 BA, 1.197 OPS).
Also, the totals above are inflated by Jim Thome’s appearance on the Dodgers’ playoff roster. His 233 PA are about 230 more than what he’ll see in this postseason, unfortunately.

As for the pitchers, Chad Billingsley and Jonathan Broxton pitched in the 2008 and 2006 playoffs for the Dodgers. Billingsley has struggled for the most part in his appearances (1-2, 13.2 IP, 7.24 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, but 19 strikeouts), while Broxton has been effective in his (7.2 IP, 1 SV, 4.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10 K). 
Jeff Weaver leads the Dodgers’ staff in playoff experience, with 38 innings pitched (3-4, 4.03 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). He also appeared in the 2004 Dodgers’ series, but most of his playoff experience was in 2006 with the Cardinals.

Philadelphia Phillies
Hitters: Total playoff games: 191, Plate appearances: 657, BA .249, OBP .321, OPS .736
Pitchers: Total playoff games: 90, Innings Pitched: 225, W-L: 16-8, 13 SV, ERA 3.80 WHIP 1.53

The Phillies hitters had 14 games of playoff experience during last year’s championship run, but their only other postseason experience this decade was in 2007 when they were swept by Colorado in the NLDS. Ryan Howard (76 PA, 4 HR, .266 BA, .500 SLG) and Shane Victorino (68 PA, 14 RBI, .262 BA, .820 OPS) were the most productive of the current Phillies in 2007 and 2008. The experience of the Phillie hitters outside of the 2007 and 2008 Phillies’ runs is very minimal: Werth (mentioned above), Raul Ibanez (17 PA with Seattle in 2000, resulting in just 3 hits), Pedro Feliz (10 PA with the Giants in 2002-03), Matt Stairs (10 PA with Oakland and Boston), Paul Bako (36 PA with Atlanta and the Cubs) and Miguel Cairo (61 PA with St. Louis and the Yankees in 2004 and 2001-02, .328 BA, .873 OPS).

The two pitchers of note for the Phillies who bring post-season experience to the table outside of the 2007 and 2008 runs are Pedro Martinez and Brad Lidge. Pedro’s 79.1 career post-season innings pitched is more than any of this year’s postseason pitchers aside from Josh Beckett (87). In those appearances, all with Boston, he was typical Pedro: 6-2 with a 3.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 80 K. Brad Lidge was the closer for the Astros in their 2004 and 05 playoffs. He tossed 25 IP, lost three games, saved six, and blew saves in two. His total postseason ERA is 4.66 with a 1.40 WHIP. He went a perfect seven-for-seven in save opportunities for the Phillies last post-season, and somehow appears on track for more of the same success this year.
Joe Blanton had two playoff IP with Oakland in 2006. Scott Eyre pitched in 12 playoff games with the Giants in 2002-03 and the Cubs in 2007. And notably, Cliff Lee has never pitched in the post-season.
Cole Hamels was the most effective Phillies pitcher in the 2007 and 2008 playoffs (4-1, 41.2 IP, 37 K, 2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP).

So, for this year’s NLCS, the teams are fairly even in terms of playoff experience. But a slight edge goes to the Phillies, by virtue of their five additional World Series games last season, when “October” nearly turned into “November”.

ALCS

Los Angeles Angels
Hitters: Total playoff games: 155, Plate Appearances: 518, BA .205, OBP .250, OPS .574
Pitchers: Total playoff games: 39, Innings Pitched: 139.2, W-L: 6-7, 0 SV, ERA 5.06 WHIP 1.50

The Angels lost in the ALDS to the Red Sox in 2004, 2007 and 2008. In 2005, they reached the ALCS and lost to the White Sox, and they won the World Series in 2002. But the Angels don’t have as much post-season experience on their roster as you might think. The only two players that remain from the 2002 club are Chone Figgins (1 pinch run) and John Lackey. Ironically, Jose Molina of the current Yankees was on that 2002 team as well.

Torii Hunter leads the Angels’ hitters in post-season experience, as he made appearances last year with the Angels and with the Twins in 2002, ‘03, ‘04 and ‘06. He has a total of 107 PA with 3 HR, and sports a .316 BA and .510 SLG.  The only other current Angel hitter with playoff experience outside of LA is Bobby Abreu, who had 34 PA with the Yankees in 2006 and 2007 (.303 BA, .833 OPS) and three at bats with Houston in 1996.
There are only three other Angels hitters with more than 21 playoff plate appearances (all with the Angels), and all of these players have really struggled: Figgins (92 PA, .207 BA, .544 OPS), Vlad Guerrero (86 PA, 1 HR, .240 BA, .631 OPS), and Juan Rivera (78 PA, .246 BA, .658 OPS).

On the mound, John Lackey has a ton of playoff experience, all with the Angels (2-3, 58.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP). Scott Kazmir has experience from last year’s run with Tampa Bay (1-1, 25.2 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.71 WHIP).
Brian Fuentes struggled in the 2007 playoffs for the Rockies (9.2 IP, 6.52 ERA, 1.97 WHIP).  Darren Oliver (17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) pitched in the playoffs in 2006 for the Mets and in 1996 for the Rangers. Ervin Santana (17 IP, 6.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) and Joe Saunders (4.2 IP, 7.71 ERA, 1.93 WHIP) also made appearances in the Angels’ recent post-seasons.

New York Yankees
Hitters: Total playoff games: 386, Plate Appearances: 1631, BA .282, OBP .361, OPS .834
Pitchers: Total playoff games: 125, Innings Pitched: 375, W-L: 26-13, 34 SV, ERA 2.73 WHIP 1.57

It is well known that the Yankees have made the playoffs every year since 1995 with the exception of last season.  Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera were members of that 1995 team. 
Every starting position player on the Yankees has post-season experience.  Only three of these players do not have playoff experience as members of the Yankees: Mark Teixeira (20 PA with the Angels last season – .467 BA, 1.017 OPS), Nick Swisher (33 PA with the White Sox in 2008 and Oakland in 2006- .208 BA, .716 OPS), and Molina (11 PA with the Angels in 2002, ‘04 and ‘05).
Two of these players have playoff experience with the Yankees in addition to playoff experience with other teams: Alex Rodriguez (appearances with the Mariners in 1995, 1997, and 2000 – 170 total PA, .279 BA, .856 OPS) and Johnny Damon (appearances in 2001 with Oakland and 2003-2005 with Boston – 193 total PA, .278 BA, .793 OPS).
The rest of these Yankees hitters have only experienced the playoffs as Yankees: Posada (383 PA, .236 BA, .731 OPS), Derek Jeter (563 PA, .309 BA, .845 OPS), Robinson Cano (52 PA, .245 BA, .737 OPS), Melky Cabrera (19 PA, .158 BA, .474 OPS), Hideki Matsui (183 PA, .302 BA, .878 OPS)

As for the pitchers, Pettitte (14-9, 218.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) and Rivera (8-1, 34 SV, 117.1 IP, 0.77 ERA, 0.75 WHIP) dominate in terms of playoff experience. All of this work has been with the Yankees, except for Pettitte’s one playoff stint in Houston in 2005.
CC Sabathia made appearances in 2001 and 2007 with the Indians and in 2008 with the Brewers and mostly struggled (2-3, 25 IP, 7.92 ERA, 2.20 WHIP). Chad Gaudin (2006 Oakland), Damaso Marte (2005 White Sox), and Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain (2007 Yankees) each have less than 5 IP of experience.  Notably, A.J. Burnett has not pitched in the postseason.

So, the Yankees have a significant advantage over the Angels in terms of post-season experience. This is no surprise. But this factor is a major reason why it would be a surprise to many to see the Angels prevail.

Finally, here are some interesting numbers from the four playoff teams that are no longer participating in this “October”: 
The Cardinals had a combined 570 plate appearances and 289.1 innings pitched, as compared to the Dodgers’ 1374 and 84.1.  But John Smoltz accounted for 207 of that 289.1 IP alone, so the Dodgers did have an edge over the Cardinals in post-season experience.
The Rockies had a combined 436 PA and 113.2 IP, as compared to the Phillies’ 657 PA and 225 IP. The Phillies had an edge over the Rockies in post-season experience.
The Twins had a combined 227 PA and 27.1 IP, as compared to the Yankees’ 1631 PA and 375 IP. The Yankees had a major advantage over the Twins in playoff experience.
And the Red Sox had a combined 1360 PA and 249 IP, as compared to the Angels’ 518 PA and 139.2 IP. Well, three out of four ain’t bad.  I did say playoff experience was just one factor, after all.  But it appears to be a more significant factor than one might expect.  It is certainly more of a factor than Dane Cook expected.