Posted by Doug Thorburn on Saturday, October 10, 2009 at 5:38 pm

The 2009 MLB postseason teed off on Wednesday with the Rockies-Phillies tilt in Philadelphia, representing a rematch of the 2007 NLDS. Scanning the predictions made by BDD staff reveals that the Phils are favored to win this series, with 10 out of 14 writers using their swami skills to predict a series victory for the Phanatics. Of those ten voters, seven cited the Phillies’ superior rotation as a key reason for their selection.  

 The strength at the top of a team’s pitching rotation takes on added importance in the postseason, where scheduled rest days act to diminish the impact of back-end starters, and top pitchers are more willing to work on short rest. A ball club with two elite-level starters can be devastating in a short series, as the 2001 Diamondbacks demonstrated with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. History has shown that a pair of aces is incredibly tough to beat, no matter which World Series you’re following this November. The Phillies have just such a pair, with 2008 AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels anchoring their staff. 

On center stage, Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez squared off against Lee in Game 1 of the five-game series. The Phillies acquired Lee at the trade deadline to bolster their run at defending the title, while Jimenez has been the jewel of the Rockies staff in 2009, posting one of the greatest seasons by a pitcher in team history. Both pitchers had impressive numbers this season, though Jimenez relied more heavily on the three true outcomes, posting a better K rate while offering twice as many free passes as Lee. Jimenez is also an extreme groundball pitcher, recording the 8^th-highest mark in the majors in 2009 at 52.5%, while Lee is closer to the other end of the spectrum with a 40% groundball rate (stats via The Hardball Times). 

2009 Stats        IP              ERA           WHIP           W-L            K                BB              H             HR

Lee                  231.2            3.22            1.24            14-13            181            43            245            17

Jimenez          218.0            3.47            1.23            15-12            198            85            183            13 

Both pitchers faced lineups that lean to the left for power, a scenario that favors the left-handed Lee. The Rockies lefty trio of Brad Hawpe, Todd Helton, and Carlos Gonzalez all fared much better against right-handers in 2009, and the right-handed hitting Troy Tulowitzki also found more success facing northpaws this season. Much has been made about Ryan Howard’s struggles against port-siders, but fellow Phillie lefties Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez actually showed reverse platoon splits for the 2009 season, which somewhat mitigates the impact of the Rockies’ loss of Jorge De La Rosa for the first round.  

Cliff Lee was on cruise control from the first pitch, demonstrating great command of his heat as well as his breaking stuff. Lee was consistently ahead in the count, hitting glove no matter where Carlos Ruiz set up the target behind the plate. Even the rare misses were effectively wild, pitching above the zone with 91-93 mph fastballs and missing down with the off speed offerings.  

Ubaldo Jimenez also breezed through the first four innings, putting up a nearly identical pitching line to his left-handed counterpart. At first glance it appears that Lee and Jimenez had been equally dominant up to that point, but a closer look reveals a different story. While Lee was continuously pounding the strike zone, Jimenez was struggling to hit his spots, and missed badly on a number of pitches. He was saved in the 2^nd inning by a big double play, and he saved himself with a couple of big benders that caught hitters looking in the early innings.

 The control issues of Jimenez are well documented, and his high walk rate is the first line of evidence. He has big time velocity, sitting at 97-99 mph on Wednesday, but he really struggles to hit his target. The problem is one of mechanics, as Jimenez is very inconsistent with respect to timing and sequencing of movement in the kinetic chain. One pitch might be well timed, but then he will slow down on the next delivery, causing his shoulders to fire before the lower body is stabilized, and the pitch will sail low and away to a right-handed hitter. The problem is magnified when Jimenez pitches from the stretch, as his use of a slide step further disrupts his timing and sequencing. 

This situation reared its ugly head in the 5^th inning, which began with Jimenez bouncing a breaking ball to walk leadoff hitter Jayson Werth. It was his first and only walk of the game, but it set the stage for the Phillies’ first couple of runs. Jimenez was clearly worried about Werth when pitching from the stretch, attempting an immediate pickoff and using a slide step to quicken his delivery.  

The first pitch to Ibanez was a fastball that missed outside, the result of a slide-step delivery that was too quick for his arm to catch up. Jimenez compensated by slowing down on the 2^nd pitch, but it was an over correction that missed low and sent the count to 2-0. After another throw over to first, Jimenez located a fastball on the outside corner that was hit foul. He then rushed another delivery on the 2-1 pitch to Ibanez, resulting in a fastball that missed up and way out of the zone. The 3-1 offering was a flat changeup that Jimenez left hanging over the inside part of the plate, missing Torrealba’s target setup on the outside corner, and which Ibanez punished with a double down the right field line to score Werth. With his timing clearly in a funk, Jimenez was unable to locate his pitches in the 5^th, and he fell behind four straight hitters in the frame. A hanging slider over the middle of the dish resulted in a Ruiz double, which plated Ibanez for the 2^nd run of the game. 

Things got worse in the 6^th, as Jimenez continued to struggle with his consistency, allowing 3 straight hits to start the inning. Utley led off with a single, stole 2^nd, and was driven in by Howard’s opposite-field double, which was hit on a thigh-high heater that missed the catcher’s inside target by 6-8 inches. Jimenez then fell behind 3-1 to Jayson Werth, and left a gut-high fastball in the middle of the plate that Werth knocked over the State Farm sign for a triple. At that point Jim Tracy had seen enough, and he went to the bullpen for Joe Beimel. 

While Jimenez was yanked in the 6^th, Lee kept on rolling through the middle and late innings, retiring 16 straight batters from the 2^nd through the 7^th. He worked ahead in the count to nearly every hitter he faced, and his only real bout with inconsistency came in the 7^th inning, when he lost his rhythm and varied his timing on a few pitches. He made it to two outs in the 9^th before giving up his lone run of the game, losing the shutout when he caught too much plate with a fastball to Tulowitzki. Lee ended the game with a 94 mph fastball that he blew by Garrett Atkins to seal the victory for Philadelphia.  

                       IP            H            BB           K            R          ER       # Pitches            Strike %

Lee                  9.0            6            0            5            1            1             113                  69.9

Jimenez          5.0            9            1            4            5            5               92                  60.9 

Cliff Lee rode his strong mechanical consistency to a superior statistical performance in Game 1, as he was able to repeat his delivery with good timing throughout the contest. Jimenez, on the other hand, struggled to find a rhythm for six innings, showing erratic timing and sequencing of movement. The outcome was consistent with their season performances, as their respective walk rates are indicative of the ability to repeat mechanics in order to hit the catcher’s target. 

Repeatability aside, there is a stark contrast in how each player delivers a baseball, as the two starters have chosen disparate methods for striding toward the plate. Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the more extreme examples of a pitcher with an open stride, with a front foot that lands to the glove-side of the centerline, which runs from the middle of the rubber to the middle of home plate. Lee, on the other hand, is a case of a pitcher with a closed stride that lands on the throwing arm side of the centerline. The effect is that Jimenez often looks like he is opening up too early with his front shoulder, while Lee can appear to “throw across his body.” These symptoms can occur due to poor timing, but both players are typically aligned with the target at release point on well-timed pitches. Style of stride is a reflection of a pitcher’s personal signature, and is not necessarily indicative of mechanical inefficiency.  

With the teams tied at 1-1 heading to Colorado, there is a strong possibility that the series will go the full five games.  In that case, it’s likely that Game 1 starters Lee and Jimenez will again be handed the ball, this time with the season on the line.  Jimenez will have the home field, and Lee will try to keep the flies from leaving the yard.  

Game 1 of the NLDS provided a preview of a potential Game 5, and lessons learned can be applied to the final game. Ubaldo Jimenez learned the hard way that pure stuff is marginalized without consistent mechanics and timing, as Cliff Lee gave a live demonstration. The consistency of both pitchers will be a huge factor on Tuesday, if this series goes 5. We can ignore stride and focus on how well each player repeats his delivery, and we keep an eye on the catcher’s target. Finally, we have learned that Lee will take off on a blind steal if he’s not getting enough attention. If we’re lucky, we might just get to see Joe Beimel and his unbelievably closed stride relieve Jimenez another time.