Posted by Bo Wulf on Tuesday, October 6, 2009 at 6:32 pm

If you’re like me, every year before the season starts you take a look at the wagers offered by the smart guys in Vegas and pick out the most tempting. This being my virgin post to BDD, I thought I’d give you a glimpse into the way my baseball mind works by highlighting some of the bets that I, hypothetically, would have made.

The Good

Adam Dunn over 33.5 HRs – Even though the big guy fell two bombs short of what would have been an amazing five straight seasons with exactly 40 homers, this one was almost too easy.

Brian McCann +3.5 HRs vs. Magglio Ordonez – This turned out to be the biggest blowout of my “wins,” with McCann edging Ordonez 21 to 8, and I’m not sure why the line was this way to begin with. Ordonez was clearly on a downward trend, and McCann, in the prime of his career, hit two more home runs than Ordonez in 2008.

Florida Marlins +7.5 wins vs. Atlanta Braves – I was quite high on the Marlins, as I, theoretically, would have also gone with the over on 76.5 wins. The Marlins outperformed their preseason expectations, grabbing 87 wins to the Braves’ 86, and yet they still might fire their manager. Go figure.

Chicago Cubs under 91.5 wins –The prohibitive favorite in the NL Central entering the year, the Cubs had quite the forgettable year, and trail only the Mets in terms of NL disappointments.

Milwaukee Brewers under 80.5 wins – I would have just barely hit this one by a half-game, so a very nice line by Vegas. Apparently they had a very good handle on the Brewers, as you’ll see below.

The Bad

Ryan Braun over 33.5 HRs – Braun ended up with 32 jacks, so they were right on point here also. It is a little surprising though that Braun played seven more games than last year and managed to hit five less homers in his 25-year-old season.

Jaime Moyer under 11.5 Wins – Another one nailed by Vegas, as Moyer ended up with 12 wins. I stand behind this bet though, considering Moyer’s performance, and if it weren’t for two wins picked up in relief during rain-delayed games, this would be a win.

Tampa Bay Rays over 87.5 wins – I stand by this one too, since the Rays fell apart down the stretch and still only fell four games short of getting to 88. The Rays were my biggest weakness going into the season – I was convinced they were going to be a better team than in 2009 and would be one of the three best teams in baseball, along with their two AL East counterparts. I feel hard on Joe Maddon’s crew, also circling their + 6.5 win spread against the Red Sox, + 7 win spread against the Yankees, and +1400 odds to win the World Series.

The Ugly

Oakland A’s + 7.5 wins vs. Anaheim Angels – I was definitely guilty of wearing PECOTA-colored glasses when it came to the AL West. This looked like a cinch to me at the time, and I also targeted the A’s over 81.5 wins and the Angels under 89.5. I’ve learned my lesson to never question the Angels again, as they ended up besting the chic preseason-pick A’s by a mere 22 games.

Colorado Rockies under 77.5 wins – Another team I couldn’t have been more wrong about. I questioned the Rockies pitching and was down on the offense following Tulowitzki’s dismal 2008. I wasn’t the only one who was wrong about the
Rockies though, as they bested their Vegas projection by 14.5 games and, of course, snagged the NL wildcard.

New York Mets +0.5 wins vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Oh, the misery. It seems like years ago that the NL East was considered to be another toss-up between the Mets and Phillies, and, as a Mets fan, I was too optimistic. You can’t expect an offense with no depth to succeed when relying on four good players who all played at least 159 games the year before.