Posted by Craig Brown on Monday, October 5, 2009 at 3:30 pm

Another year, another one game playoff to decide a division.  And for the second consecutive year, this game will decide the champion of the American League Central.

Last year’s game was a good one when the White Sox edged the Twins, 1-0 in a game in Chicago.  Can Minnesota’s Scott Baker and Detroit’s Rick Porcello provide us with another pitcher’s duel?

Unfortunately, of all the teams for Baker to draw in a one game playoff, it had to be the Tigers.  This year, Baker made at least three starts against the other teams in the AL Central.  Here’s how he fared against his divisional rivals:

Small sample size aside, Baker made four starts against the Tigers and fared poorly in three.

In his most recent start against the Tigers, he needed 106 pitches to complete those five innings.

The meat of the Tiger order has fared well against Baker this summer with Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera doing the most damage.  He’s had the most success against Brandon Inge and Curtis Granderson.

Meanwhile, the rookie Porcello did much better against his Tuesday opponent.  Here’s how he did against AL Central competition this year:

I left the White Sox out of this group because they were the only Central team Porcello faced just once this year.

Here’s how Porcello fared in his four matchups against the Twins:

Porcello has had the most trouble against the currently hot hitting Jason Kubel and Delmon Young.  He’s done well against Joe Mauer and Orlando Cabrera.

Baker has done well over the last month, posting a 3.97 ERA over his final 34 innings. However, the issue with Baker has been his high pitch counts in a relatively small number of innings.  He’s averaged just five innings per start during this time and 98 pitches.

Porcello has fared better coming down the stretch, but he’s a pitch to contact type of pitcher who lacks the strikeout pitch he needs to escape potential jams.

I’m thinking we’ll see a relatively high scoring game with the bullpens coming into play earlier than the respecive managers of these teams would like.  The Tiger bullpen was just a fraction better than the Twins.  Detroit relievers allowed 4.56 runs per game (adjusted to a full game) while Minnesota’s bullpen corp surrendered 4.69.

Everything about this game screams toss-up.  These are two evenly matched teams duking it out in the mediocre AL Central.

Forget the Metrodome sentimentality – this is a playoff game.  When the Dome gets loud on Tuesday, it’s because this is the same as a game seven.  And just like in 1991 and 1987, it’s going to be loud for the Twins.  Can home field make a difference?  I’m loathe to admit this, but in this case I think it’s entriely possible the Metrodome will be a factor.  And since the advent of the Wild Card (and the explosion of one game playoffs) the home team has won four out of five games.  The lone exception was the Mets 5-0 win over the Reds in Cincinnati in 1999.

Should be a good one.