Posted by Bill Baer on Saturday, September 26, 2009 at 1:06 pm

Save for a 7-1 or 8-0 finish, the Oakland Athletics will finish under the 80-win threshold, under .500, for the fourth consecutive season. Since winning the division in 2006, the A’s have finished no better than third in the NL West, and that had people wondering if this whole Moneyball thing stopped working for GM Billy Beane.

Worry not, as the A’s are developing some impressive-looking players. Last night, for the third time since the start of August, left-hander Gio Gonzalez went at least six innings and allowed no runs. Although his ERA is hovering near 6.00, one can’t help but marvel at how dominant he looked last night against the L.A. Angels, which sports the AL’s third-best offense and a lineup that contained nine .300 hitters at one point in the season.

Gio’s problem, as it is with so many other young pitchers, is control. He has walked 56 batters in under 99 innings, a walk rate of over five per nine innings. Hitters have been fortunate on balls in play with a .362 BABIP and they’re not swinging all that often. If he had enough innings to qualify, his 42.3 swing percentage would be tied for fourth-lowest in the Majors. Further, his 75.2 contact percentage would be tied with Tim Lincecum for fourth-lowest in baseball. When he’s around the strike zone, he is dominant.

Another former Philadelphia Phillie was called up to the Majors and made an immediate impact for the A’s. Left-hander Josh Outman, acquired last year in the Joe Blanton trade, made twelve starts this season and in eight of them he lasted at least six innings; in seven of them, he allowed three runs or fewer. Unlike Gio Gonzalez, Outman showed decent control, with a 3.3 BB/9 rate.

Outman’s best stuff wasn’t his hard stuff, oddly enough — it was a barely above-average pitch. He made his living with his slider and change-up, which were worth 3.87 and 1.75 runs per 100 pitches per FanGraphs. Unfortunately, his season was cut short in June when he underwent Tommy John surgery. The A’s are hoping to get him back by the All-Star break next year.

Joining Gonzalez and Outman in the rotation are Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Dallas Braden, 21, 21, and 25 years old respectively. Like Outman, Braden’s season ended early but hopes to be ready for the 2010 season. Braden and Anderson showed great control for rookies with respective BB/9 rates of 2.32 and 2.77. Anderson had a better ability to strike out hitters, though, averaging 7.66 per nine innings compared to Braden’s 5.33.

Cahill, on the other hand, may be expected to regress a bit next season, but he can still be an effective Major League pitcher. He doesn’t have intimidating stuff — a 90 MPH fastball he throws 70% of the time — but makes his living inducing ground balls at a clip near one in every two batted balls. Complimenting his fastball is a change-up that has been his only above-average pitch with a value of 0.71 runs per 100 pitches.

At the other end of the game is Andrew Bailey, a 25-year-old closer and a heavy contender for the AL Rookie of the Year award. Coming into the season without ever having thrown so much as one pitch in the Majors, Bailey has dominated hitters to the tune of a sub-2.00 ERA and a K/9 rate nearing 10. He starts off ahead in the count to three out of every five batters and it’s an immediate uphill battle for opposing hitters, as Bailey features three above-average pitches: a straight fastball, a cut fastball, and a curveball, which are worth 2.01, 1.48, and 3.00 runs per 100 pitches according to FanGraphs.

As it has been with the A’s this season, most of the pleasant surprises have come from the pitchers. The A’s were blase on offense, which tends to happen with their home ballpark. Rajai Davis has been the most productive hitter with a 119 OPS+, but overall, like their pitching, the A’s were just under the AL average offensively. Baseball America does see some hope in the future for positional players: Aaron Cunningham, Adrian Cardenas, Chris Carter, and Jemile Weeks all made BA’s pre-season top 10.

With a starting rotation full of promise and a dominating bullpen, the A’s can focus on improving the offense in 2010. Five of the players on BA’s pre-season top 10 saw Major League action this year, and such could be the case next season. Do the A’s dare throw young positional prospects into the fire during a post-season push?