Posted by David Wade on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 1:18 pm

If the Tigers go on to win the A.L. Central, it’ll be in large part because of a pitching staff that overall is in the top 3 in the American League in ERA. 

If they reach the post-season, Detroit presents a very difficult matchup for their opponent- especially in the best-of-five first round series.  This is the really appealing part of the team, even if they’re likely to draw the Yankees in the first round.  In a short series, they could send Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson out for games one and two.  Provided he’s healthy, Jarrod Washburn could follow for game three.  Those three pitchers have combined for a 3.31 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 136 ERA+ so far in 2009. 

The Yankees are really good, but if Verlander is painting the black at triple digits and has the hammer working, Detroit could very well beat Sabathia and a homer-happy Yankee offense to take a 1-0 lead in the series. 

They haven’t clinched the Central yet, but even if they don’t, Tigers fans have a lot to look forward to in the coming years.

As impressive as the Tigers’ top two pitchers have been (Washburn is battling a knee injury- so his status is a little uncertain despite a good year so far), one of the most interesting stories in MLB and exciting news for the future of the franchise has been 20 year old Rick Porcello.  He probably wouldn’t factor in the postseason, as his innings continue to pile up and a healthy Washburn would likely keep him out of the rotation.  However, the young right-hander has already had a great rookie regular season.  He has held his own in the American League despite pitching only one year in the minors.  He dominated that year at single A with a sinking fastball that he has brought with him to the show and given him far above the MLB average of outs recorded on the ground balls versus outs through the air. 

Manager Jim Leyland has been careful with the youngster, monitoring his workload to the tune of the best PAP results of anyone with over 19 starts (and Rick has 25).  This is in contrast to periods of Leyland’s past (with the Marlins in particular), and his current handling of workhorses Verlander and Jackson, who show up in the top 3 under the statistic’s ’most abused’.  A lot of that bad scoring for Leyland’s two aces has to do with them pitching so well that they go tend to go deep quite often and that those two have already pitched several full seasons of pro ball.  Detroit is being cautious with Porcello because he doesn’t have the innings under his belt and the intitial plan was to leave him in the minors again this year.  That was before the youngster impressed the staff so much that they had to give him a spot in the rotation after spring training. 

Porcello has helped his skipper out by working close to the league average in innings pitched per game started (Rick is 5.4, MLB average is 5.8) and normally going past 5 innings with 10 fewer pitches per start than the average starting pitcher.  This again is due in large part to that ground-ball inducing two-seamer that helps Porcello average less than the majority of MLB pitchers in pitches thrown per batter faced.  In short, he’s getting guys out efficiently and letting management take advantage of his talent while watching the stress on his very valuable arm.

In many ways, Porcello has to remind people a little of Verlander.  Both first-round draft picks.  They are both 6-5 and around 200 pounds.  Neither spent much time in the minors.  Verlander, though not as young as Porcello when drafted, still debuted at 22 and pitched his first full year at 23.  They both had good first-year results despite an unimpressive strikeout rate (yes- Verlander’s results were better overall- see below).  They are both power right-handers with prototypical builds.  Their motion is smooth and while Porcello’s fastball doesn’t hit triple digits like Verlander’s, he still gets up to mid 90s at times.

Speaking of his Porcello’s fastball, pitch f/x lists (mostly via MLB Gametracker data, so that part of the tool has admitted limitations) that Porcello throws mostly four-seamers, but I keep reading scouting reports and descriptions of his outings that indicate he’s working almost entirely with a two-seam fastball and about 15 changeups per game with a few curves sprinkled in.  Looking at game logs and checking pitch f/x velocity, spin, etc., it looks like Porcello mostly works with three pitches.  It’s the designation of the fastball I’m interested in, because though the speed indicates a four-seam grip, the movement looks like a two-seamer.  I’d love to find out what he’s really throwing (I guess I’ll try to book an interview), because I’ve also read that his uninspiring minor league K rate mentioned above was heavily influenced by orders to work on secondary pitches last year. I find myself wondering if his inability to miss a lot of bats in his young career, combined with a through-the-roof ground ball per centage, means he’s throwing the sinking two-seamer almost exclusively.

Why is this relevant? Because, if he’s under orders to hold back on arm-stressing pitches and to rely mostly on sinkers and changeups, his not-so-hot K-rate could be explained and that could mean we’re in store for a Verlander-like jump in strikeouts over the next few seasons.  And then, he’d have all the other good things that come from high-K totals, like a better ERA, improved WHIP,  spots in shaving commercials, etc.

In other words, Verlander has thrown a no-hitter and won rookie of the year before this year and his 2009 performance indicates he’s better than he has been in the past!  If Porcello is on a similar track (and it looks like he could be), the Tigers may be sitting on two premier home-grown hurlers.

Here’s a look at the two pitchers’ first full seasons-

Porcello’s stats (as of 9/12/2009) 4.8 K/9 -1.341 WHIP - ERA+ of 107 and 1.3 HR / 9

Verlander was better-    6 K/9   -   1.328 WHIP  -  ERA + of 126  and 1.0 HR / 9

So, while Verlander was better, he was also three years older.  Verlander started missing bats more and more after his first season and I’m guessing Porcello will too. 

The Tigers risked angering MLB brass by picking Porcello and signing him to a contract worthy of the overall first pick instead of the 27 spot he fell to in 2007.  They took a big chance that he’d sign at all, considering Scott Boras was his agent and North Carolina was holding a scholarship for him.  The team also gambled this spring when they named him a starter and bypassed another year of seasoning down on the farm.  They’ve managed to keep his innings down while still enjoying above average pitching from him.  All these risks and challenges are paying off for the Tigers so far and their fans should be excited about what’s in store for their young pitcher. 

Back to the short series factor I mentioned earlier and the one-two combo of Verlander and Jackson- St. Louis also has a stunning one-two punch- maybe we’ll see a rematch of the 2006 World Series this fall?  Even if the Tigers can’t make it this year, they should contend for the forseeable future on the strength of their pitching alone.