Sunday, February 12th, 2012

Senioritis: Which Circuit is Senior?

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Posted by Eric Polsky on Friday, September 11, 2009 at 3:31 am

By virtue of being founded 25 years earlier than the American League, the National League is known as the “Senior Circuit,” while the AL has been stuck with the “Junior Circuit” nickname.  But apparently the AL has had enough of being called Junior for the past 100 years, as it has established itself as the superior league in terms of talent, while the NL has experienced a severe case of Senioritis. 

Let’s ignore the AL’s dominance of regular season Interleague Play (1,674 wins to NL’s 1,534 since it began in 1997, including more wins in each of the past six years). Let’s ignore the AL’s dominance of All-Star games (12-0-1 since 1997 – yes, including the one tie). Let’s also ignore the AL’s dominance of recent World Series (7-4 since 1998 and 35-20 in actual games with 5 sweeps). Let’s instead focus for a moment on the performance of players that have switched leagues within the past year and a half and assess whether playing in the NL is actually easier.  We’ll first look at the players that moved from the AL to the NL, and then look at those that went the other way.

American League to National League

To begin, here’s a selection of players that have moved from the AL to the NL and found it easier to perform there. Leading off this list is a couple of notable players that were moved to the NL at this season’s trading deadline:

Cliff Lee
Cleveland 2009 – 152 IP, 107 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7-9 W-L
Philadelphia 2009 – 55 IP, 51 K, 3.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6-2 W-L
Shortly after his arrival in Philadelphia, Lee regained Cy Young form. His last three starts have been shaky (6, 6, and 4 ER), but in the six starts prior to that Lee gave up a total of three runs and averaged eight innings and eight strikeouts per start. 

Matt Holliday
Oakland 2009 – 346 AB, .286 BA, 11 HR, 54 RBI, .832 OPS
St. Louis 2009 – 160 AB, .381 BA, 12 HR, 41 RBI, 1.143 OPS
Like Lee, Holliday too regained his MVP form upon his arrival in the NL. Certainly hitting behind Albert Pujols helps, but it alone doesn’t explain a nearly .200 spike in OPS, .100 spike in batting average, and more homeruns in less than half the at-bats. It likely has something to do with the quality of NL versus AL pitching.
 
Huston Street
Oakland 2008 – 70 IP, 69 K, 3.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 18 Saves, 6 Holds, 7 Blown Saves
Colorado 2009 – 54.2 IP, 62 K, 2.96 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 33 Saves, 1 Hold, 1 Blown Save
Street was also traded from Oakland to the NL, but that took place in the offseason. Some thought his numbers would suffer with a move to Coors Field and that he’d have a tough battle with Manny Corpas for the closer’s role, but Street’s actually performed significantly better in Colorado and has established himself as one of the better closers in the game.

Leo Nunez
Kansas City 2008 – 48.1 IP, 26 K, 2.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7 Holds, 3 Blown saves
Florida 2009 – 60.1 IP, 54 K, 4.18 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 19 Saves, 13 Holds, 6 Blown saves
The Marlins traded Mike Jacobs for Nunez in the offseason (see how Jacobs performed in the AL below), and Nunez progressed from a set-up man in KC to Florida’s closer after Matt Lindstrom went on the disabled list in July. Despite a few blown saves, Nunez has been solid in Florida. His WHIP is the same and his strikeout rate is significantly better in the NL.

Manny Ramirez
Boston 2008 – 365 AB, .299 BA, 20 HR, 68 RBI, .927 OPS
Dodgers 08/09 – 482 AB, .338 BA, 34 HR, 105 RBI, 1.072 OPS
It is well-known that Manny became super-Manny after being dealt to the Dodgers at last season’s deadline, in more ways than one. But Manny’s overall numbers are significantly better playing in the NL, and had he not missed 50 games due to suspension, he might have been battling Pujols for MVP this season.

Francisco Rodriguez
Angels 2008 – 68.1 IP, 77 K, 2.24 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 62 saves, 7 Blown saves
Mets 2009 – 61.1 IP, 64 K, 3.08 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 30 saves, 5 Blown saves
It would have been impossible to top the number of saves that K-Rod had last year, especially because a) nobody did it before him, and b) he moved from the AL West leading Angels to the banged-up Mets.  But saves are about opportunity, and if we ignore that number, K-Rod’s numbers have been just as good in the NL. Perhaps if K-Rod was on the mound with a lead more often this season, his NL numbers would look even better.

Joe Blanton
Oakland 2008 – 127 IP, 62 K, 4.96 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 5-12 W-L
Philadelphia 08/09 – 236.2 IP, 185 K, 4.07 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 13-6 W-L
Blanton was dealt at last season’s deadline from Oakland to Philadelphia, where he has established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter. In 2009, he’s on his way to establishing a career high in strikeouts and career best walk rate, and if he finishes the season strong, he could also set career bests in ERA and WHIP.

Raul Ibanez
Seattle 2008 – 635 AB, .293 BA, 23 HR, 110 RBI, .837 OPS
Philadelphia 2009 – 423 AB, .279 BA, 30 HR, 82 RBI, .918 OPS
Yet another Phillie convert to appear on this list, Ibanez was a favorite for mid-season MVP this year after signing with Philadelphia as a free agent.  But after coming back from his midseason injury to his groin, his performance has slipped. He’s still maintained significantly better numbers in Philadelphia than Seattle, including nearly a .100 point spike in slugging percentage.

Mark DeRosa
Cubs 2008 – 505 AB, .285 BA, 21 HR, 87 RBI, .857 OPS
Cleveland 2009 – 278 AB, .270 BA, 13 HR, 50 RBI, .799 OPS
St. Louis 2009 – 163 AB, .245 BA, 8 HR, 19 RBI, .750 OPS
DeRosa was traded in the offseason from the Cubs to Cleveland, and then to St. Louis in June. His overall NL numbers are better than his AL stint in Cleveland, though he has struggled to get going in St. Louis. Perhaps as the season plays out the Cardinals will get more of the DeRosa of 2008.

Next, here’s a handful of players that don’t support the theory that life in the NL is easier:

Scott Rolen
Toronto 2009 – 338 AB, .320 BA, 8 HR, 43 RBI, .846 OPS
Cincinnati 2009 – 75 AB, .280 BA, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .712 OPS
Rolen was traded in a curious deal to the Reds, who gave up their own young third baseman, Edwin Encarnacion (see his AL performance below), for an aging third baseman who costs a significant amount more. Rolen was previously in the NL with St. Louis and Philadelphia, so he’s seen some familiar places and faces and in all likelihood his performance will even itself out.

Garret Anderson
Angels 2008 – 557 AB, .293 BA, 15 HR, 84 RBI, .758 OPS
Atlanta 2009 – 406 AB, .278 BA, 12 HR, 51 RBI, .735 OPS
Anderson played his entire career with the Angels before signing with Atlanta in the offseason. He’s now 37 this year, so this split can be evidence of a decline due to age, but Garret’s still banged out as many homeruns and held onto his starting job. That alone says something about the quality of outfielders on the Braves’ roster, and is possibly also reflective of the quality of outfielders in the NL as a whole.

Casey Blake
Cleveland 2008 – 325 AB, .289 BA, 11 HR, 58 RBI, .830 OPS
LA Dodgers 08/09 – 658 AB, .265 BA, 26 HR, 93 RBI, .799 OPS
Blake was dealt from the Indians to the Dodgers at last season’s deadline, and he quickly became a mainstay at third base for one of the best teams in the NL. His averages are slightly lower in the NL, but his homerun rate has increased.

Rich Harden
Oakland 2008 – 77 IP, 92 K, 2.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 5-1 W-L
Cubs 08/09 – 205 IP, 251 K, 3.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 14-9 W-L
Harden was dealt before season’s deadline from Oakland to the Cubs, but it appears that he hasn’t enjoyed the Windy City as much as Oaktown. Ignoring 2009 however, Harden did post the best numbers of his career in Chicago after last season’s trade (1.78 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 89 K in 71 IP).
 
Milton Bradley
Texas 2008 – 414 AB, .321 BA, 22 HR, 77 RBI, .999 OPS
Cubs 2009 – 372 AB, .266 BA, 12 HR, 39 RBI, .802 OPS
Bradley is another Cub convert that hasn’t enjoyed the NL as much as the AL. He signed as a free agent with Chicago after his monster season in Texas, but this season has been a constant struggle. He has bounced back and forth from the AL to the NL however, see-sawing from Montreal to Cleveland to the Dodgers to Oakland to San Diego to Texas and now Chicago. Its remarkable that Bradley has been on seven different teams and has never once moved within the same league. So perhaps Bradley doesn’t even know which league he’s in anymore.

Ryan Garko
Cleveland 2009 – 239 AB, .285 BA, 11 HR, 39 RBI, .826 OPS
San Francisco 2009 – 93 AB, .237 BA, 2 HR, 12 RBI, .652 OPS
Garko was dealt prior to the deadline in a move to attempt to add offense to the light hitting Giants. But Garko hasn’t helped much at all. He hasn’t really produced anywhere in his career, so its hard to take his performance into much consideration here.

And, here’s a list of players to keep an eye on to see whether their NL performance turns out to be better than their AL performance:

Brad Penny
Boston 2009 – 131.2 IP, 89 K, 5.61 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
San Francisco 2009 – 15 IP, 8 K, 1.20 ERA, 0.67 WHIP
Penny didn’t even earn his name in Boston and was waived. He was picked up by the Giants and promptly threw two gems – one of eight innings and no runs in Philadelphia. It appears that Penny will enjoy pitching against NL West opponents (Padres – 550 runs scored, Diamondbacks – 631, Dodgers – 669, Rockies – 703) as opposed to the AL East (Yankees – 809, Rays – 707, Orioles – 637, Blue Jays – 672).

John Smoltz
Boston 2009 – 40 IP, 33 K, 8.33 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 2-5 W-L
St. Louis 2009 – 22 IP, 28 K, 3.27 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 1-1 W-L
Like Penny, Smoltz also couldn’t survive life in the AL as a member of the Red Sox and was waived. After passing through waivers, Smoltz signed with the Cardinals on August 19 and since then he’s turned things around. His NL Central opponents aren’t much better than the NL West either (Cubs – 608 runs scored, Houston 567, Pittsburgh – 562, Cincinnati – 554, Milwaukee – 656)

Jose Contreras
White Sox 2009 – 114.2 IP, 89 K, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Colorado 2009 – 6.2 IP, 5 K, 1 ER, 1.45 WHIP
Contreras was placed on waivers after he underperformed in the White Sox rotation and the Rockies worked out a trade for him. One start against the Diamondbacks later (in Coors Field no less) and Contreras looks like he’ll be in the Rockies’ rotation for a while. Obviously this is a very small sample size, but like Penny, Contreras may prefer an NL West schedule.

Ben Francisco
Cleveland 2009 – 308 AB, .250 BA, 10 HR, 33 RBI, .758 OPS
Philadelphia 2009 – 52 AB, .231 BA, 3 HR, 9 RBI, .749 OPS
Francisco was dealt at the deadline but hasn’t gotten regular playing time in the NL just yet. His performance in a reserve role is in line with his starting numbers in the AL with Cleveland, however.

Clayton Richard
White Sox 2009 – 89 IP, 66 K, 4.65 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4-3 W-L
San Diego 2009 – 40 IP, 31 K, 5.40 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 4-2 W-L
Richard was dealt to the Padres in the Jake Peavy deal, and since then he’s either been very good (in home starts versus Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Washington) or very bad (in road games at SF, Atlanta, and St. Louis). We’ll see which side he lands on more often as the season progresses.

Jason Giambi
Oakland 2009 – .193 BA, .696 OPS, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 52 hits in 269 AB
Colorado 2009 – .400 BA, 1.025 OPS, 4 RBI, 2 hits and 3 walks in 5 AB
Giambi failed in Oakland and was released. He was signed to a minor league contract by the Rockies on August 24. He had two pinch hits in his first two plate appearances, both of which gave the Rockies wins. He then started at first base and went 0-3 with two walks. He’s moved to Coors Field, so perhaps his numbers are destined to improve regardless of the move to the NL.

Jim Thome
White Sox 2009 – .249 BA, .865 OPS, 23 HR, 74 RBI
Dodgers 2009 – one hit in three pinch-hit appearances
We’re unlikely to see what Thome can really do against NL hitting, because the Dodgers apparently have no confidence in allowing Thome to play the field.  But he’s a name to keep an eye on in the playoffs as we’ll see whether he finds NL pitching easier to hit.

National League to American League 

Now that we’ve looked at the players who have transitioned from the NL to the AL, lets look at the players who’ve done the opposite. First, lets look at players that have struggled in the AL as compared to the “Senior” Circuit.

CC Sabathia
Cleveland 2008 – 122.1 IP, 123 K, 3.83 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6-8 W-L
Milwaukee 2008 – 130.2 IP, 128 K, 1.65 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 11-2 W-L
Yankees 2009 – 253 IP, 251 K, 2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 17-10 W-L
If we focus on his performance in Milwaukee, CC’s the best example we have that life in the NL is easier. CC was traded at last season’s deadline to Milwaukee and simply dominated, pitching on four days rest, sometimes three and not missing a beat. In New York, he’s turned things around as of late, and he’s well-known for a second half surge, but these overall numbers don’t lie, and they’re saying the NL isn’t worthy of the title of ”Senior Circuit”.

Pat Burrell
Philadelphia 2008 – 536 AB, .250 BA, 33 HR, 86 RBI, .874 OPS
Tampa Bay 2009 – 355 AB, .234 BA, 13 HR, 58 RBI, .726 OPS
Pat the Bat was supposed to bring his bat to the middle of the Rays’ lineup after signing there in the offseason, but he’s struggled significantly. He heated up in August, but thus far it appears that Pat’s Bat works better in the NL.

Ty Wigginton
Houston 2008 – 386 AB, .285 BA, 23 HR, 58 RBI, .876 OPS
Baltimore 2009 – 338 AB, .266 BA, 8 HR, 34 RBI, .703 OPS
Wigginton signed with the O’s as a free agent this offseason, but he too has found the AL much more difficult, putting together the worst numbers of his career this season. He did however have one of his best seasons in Tampa Bay in 2006, so perhaps he’s able to regain his form at some point.

Jason Bay
Pittsburgh 2008 – 393 AB, .282 BA, 22 HR, 64 RBI, .894 OPS
Boston 2008/09 – 642 AB, .269 BA, 40 HR, 135 RBI, .912 OPS
Bay was dealt to Boston in the Manny Ramirez deal, and without looking at the numbers, most would assume that Bay’s been a better player with the Red Sox. But a closer look at the numbers, including a slightly lower homerun rate and batting average, shows he’s been pretty much the same player. When taking into account the quality of the Red Sox and Pirates lineups, it could be argued that Bay was an even better player in the NL.

Kerry Wood
Cubs 2008 – 66.1 IP, 84 K, 3.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 34 Saves, 6 Blown saves
Cleveland 2009 – 49 IP, 57 K, 4.22 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 19 Saves, 5 Blown Saves
Wood signed with Cleveland as a free agent prior to this season. He’s found it more difficult closing in the AL Central as opposed to the NL Central, with a run higher ERA and a lower save percentage.

Mike Jacobs
Florida 2008 – 477 AB, .247 BA, 32 HR, 93 RBI, .813 OPS
Kansas City 2009 – 372 AB, .237 BA, 17 HR, 51 RBI, .726 OPS
The AL’s counterpart to the Leo Nunez deal, Jacobs has struggled mightily in Kansas City. He’s improved since the All-Star break, but while Jacobs has been trying to figure things out, Nunez has taken over the closer’s role in the NL with the Marlins (see above).

Brian Fuentes
Colorado 2008 – 62.2 IP, 82 K, 2.73 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 30 saves, 6 Holds, 4 blown saves
Angels 2009 – 47.1 IP, 42 K, 3.99 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 40 saves, 6 blown saves
The Angels signed Fuentes as a free agent this offseason to replace K-Rod and his record 62 saves, and Fuentes has now set a personal career record with 40 saves. But a closer look at the performance between this season and last in Coors shows that Fuentes was a better pitcher in the NL.

Jack Wilson
Pittsburgh 2009 – 266 AB, .267 BA, 18 2B, 4 HR, 31 RBI, .691 OPS, .980 Fielding %, 7 errors
Seattle 2009 – 92 AB, .207 BA, 5 2B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .546 OPS, .965 Fielding %, 4 errors
Wilson was traded at the deadline to Seattle, and he hasn’t been much of a hitter anyway, but he’s found it even more difficult to hit in the AL. He’s better known for his defense, but even that has slipped in Seattle.

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Cincinnati 2008 – 359 AB, .245 BA, 15 HR, 53 RBI, .787 OPS
White Sox 2008 – 131 AB, .260 BA, 3 HR, 18 RBI, .752 OPS
Seattle 2009 – 327 AB, .217 BA, 14 HR, 43 RBI, .715 OPS
Speaking of Seattle, Junior returned there this season and hoped he’d recapture some of his magic, but he’s struggled. Cincinnati was the last place he’s produced (30 homeruns and 93 RBIs in 2007), although age (39) may also have played a major role in his recent decline.

Edwin Encarnacion
Cincinnati 2009 – 139 AB, .209 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI, .707 OPS
Toronto 2009 – 73 AB, .178 BA, 1 HR, 7 RBI, .472 OPS
The Blue Jays’ counterpart to the Rolen deal (see above), Encarnacion has found life in the AL to be much more difficult. He struggled to make a name for himself in Cincinnati, and it seems that he’ll need to work even harder in Toronto to build upon whatever progress he’s made.

Jose Bautista
Pittsburgh 2008 – 314 AB, .242 BA, 12 HR, 44 RBI, .729 OPS
Toronto 2008/09 – 300 AB, .223 BA, 7 HR, 31 RBI, .673 OPS
The other struggling third baseman in Toronto, Bautista has also found it more difficult to produce in the AL. He was traded to the Jays prior to last season’s deadline and his numbers have declined from bad to worse.

Takashi Saito
Dodgers 2008 – 47 IP, 60 K, 2.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 18 Saves, 4 Blown Saves
Boston 2009 – 48.2 IP, 46 K, 2.59 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3 Holds, 2 Saves, 1 Blown save
Saito was the Dodgers’ closer last year but an injury led to Jonathan Broxton’s ascension to the closer role there, and Saito signed as a free agent with the Red Sox this offseason. He’s performed well behind Jonathan Papelbon, but his numbers aren’t as good as they were in the NL.

Next, here’s a look at four players whose performance has been better in the AL:

Scott Podsednik
Colorado 2008 – 162 AB, .253 BA, 1 HR, 15 RBI, .655 OPS
White Sox 2009 – 459 AB, .303 BA, 5 HR, 43 RBI, .760 OPS
Pods struggled in Coors Field last season and returned to the White Sox as a free agent in the offseason, where he spent 2005-2007.  He’s produced significantly better numbers in the AL, which is somewhat surprising since his NL stay was in Coors Field of all places. Perhaps he doesn’t like the altitude?

Chris Perez
St. Louis 2009 – 23.2 IP, 30 K, 4.18 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3 Holds, 1 Blown save
Cleveland 2009 – 23.2 IP, 29 K, 3.04 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3 Holds, 1 Blown save
Perez was drafted by the Cardinals as their “closer of the future,” but that turned out to be Ryan Franklin, and Perez was moved to Cleveland at this season’s deadline. His numbers so far have been better in the AL, and there’s a possibility he’s now the Indians’ “closer of the future”.

Ian Snell
Pittsburgh 2009 – 80.2 IP, 52 K, 5.36 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 2-8 W-L
Seattle 2009 – 35 IP, 19 K, 4.89 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 4-1 W-L
Snell was dealt to the Mariners at this season’s trading deadline, and he’s improved ever since. Perhaps he enjoys the pitching-friendly confines of Safeco Park, or perhaps he’s just glad to finally get out of Pittsburgh.

Alex Gonzalez
Cincinnati 2009 – 243 AB, .210 BA, 3 HR, 26 RBI, .554 OPS
Boston 2009 – 83 AB, .289 BA, 4 HR, 8 RBI, .795 OPS
The Red Sox traded for Gonzalez on August 14th, and thus far it looks like he’s glad to be back. He’s performing significantly better in Boston, but perhaps that’s because of a move from MLB’s worst offensive team in terms of runs scored (554), to the third best (737).

Lastly, here’s a few names to watch as the season progresses to see whether their performance in the AL declines:

Billy Wagner
Mets 2008/09 – 49 IP, 56 K, 2.20 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 27 saves, 7 Blown saves
Boston 2009 – 3.2 IP, 7 K, 2.46 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2 holds
Billy Wags approved a trade to the Red Sox and is hoping that his performance there earns him a new closer’s gig elsewhere next year. Perhaps he’ll want to limit his search to NL teams.

Ivan Rodriguez
Houston 2009 – 327 AB, .251 BA, 8 HR, 34 RBI, .662 OPS
Texas 2009 – 48 AB, .271 BA, 1 HR, 8 RBI, .812 OPS
The Rangers brought Pudge back after Jarrod Saltalamacchia went down with an arm injury, and thus far Pudge has performed well. 

Jake Peavy
San Diego 2009 – 81.2 IP, 92 K, 3.97 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 6-6 W-L
White Sox 2009 – ????
Peavy’s yet to pitch for the White Sox due to injury, but his return could come as soon as this weekend.

So, an overall look at these players leads to the conclusion that the quality of performance in the National League is inferior to the American League, something that was suspected based on results of interleague play.  But this analysis should be the final straw, and its about time to award the term “Senior Circuit” to the league that deserves it.

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