Friday, March 12th, 2010

All Roads Run Through St. Louis… Again

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Posted by Bill Baer on Thursday, September 10, 2009 at 10:20 am

In 2005, the St. Louis Cardinals won 100 games and earned the NL Central title by eleven games over the Wild Card-winning Houston Astros. They also laid claim to both the NL Most Valuable Player in Albert Pujols and the NL Cy Young award winner in Chris Carpenter.

Aside from the Cardinals being trailed by the Chicago Cubs this year instead of the Astros, there are a lot of similarities between the ‘09 Cardinals and the ‘05 Cardinals. Redbirds fans, however, are hoping for a better outcome in October, as they lost in the NLCS to the Houston Astros, who went on to lose to the Chicago White Sox in the World Series. Albert Pujols once again appears to have locked up the NL MVP award, and Chris Carpenter is a favorite to win the NL Cy Young if he can hold off teammate Adam Wainwright.

Pujols is having a Pujolsian year. He’ll likely cross the 50-HR threshold for the first time in his illustrious career — he has 47 so far this year — and he’ll set a career high in RBI if he can drive in 14 more runs. His current 1.148 OPS would also be a career-high — and it leads the league, of course — if he doesn’t crash into a cold streak.

Carpenter’s career had hit the skids due to injuries, but he has rebounded in a big way. He missed yet more time this year between April 15 and May 19. Aside from that, he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball along with teammate Wainwright and the Kansas City Royals’ Zack Grienke. Only twice in 24 starts has he given up more than three runs. He has five starts in which he’s pitched at least seven innings and given up no runs.

Think about it: Pujols wins MVP, Carpenter wins the Cy Young, and the Cardinals win the division by 11 games. Just like 2005. Here’s a breakdown of the 2005 and 2009 rebirds teams by position and how much WAR each position contributed (according to FanGraphs).

The only noticeable difference between the two teams is in the outfield. The 2005 squad had Reggie Sanders, Jim Edmonds, and Larry Walker, which compares favorably to Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Colby Rasmus, and a half-season from Chris Duncan and Matt Holliday.

While teams look at the young talent on the Los Angeles Dodgers’ roster (Kershaw, Billingsley, Kemp), the firepower in Philadelphia (Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez), and the pitching in San Francisco (Lincecum, Cain, Wilson), be sure not to overlook the St. Louis Cardinals. They’ve recently taken over as the NL leader in W-L record, and for good reason. The Cardinals can match up with anybody, anywhere.

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