Posted by Craig Brown on Wednesday, September 2, 2009 at 1:13 pm

As the season enters the home stretch, there are a number of story lines outside the pennant races (or lack of said races) for fans to follow.  In Detroit, there is an interesting situation concerning Magglio Ordonez and an $18 million option that will kick in sometime in the next two weeks for the 2010 season.

Jump into the Way Back Machine to the year 2004. Ordonez was in the final year of a three-year contract that paid him $29.5 million.  He was 30 years old, meaning he was close to his peak, with a drop in production probably just around the corner.  Of course, that was only going to be an issue to his next team.

Unfortunately for Ordonez, his left knee began acting up and he spent most of his contract year in the trainers room instead of on the field.  He played in only 52 games in 2004, hitting .292/.351/.485 with an OPS+ of 114.  Ordonez had the misfortune of having the worst year of his career since his rookie season just before he was due to hit free agency.

So it was a bit of a surprise when the Detroit Tigers swooped in and signed Ordonez in February of 2005.  Maybe it wasn’t so much of a surprise… Someone was going to sign Ordonez, gimpy knee or not.  What was a surprise was the contract:  Five years at a total of $75 million.

The conventional wisdom at the time was the Tigers, coming off a 90 loss season and two years removed from an AL record 119 losses, needed to overpay to bring a player like Ordonez to Detroit.  Plus, the Tigers included a clause that would allow them to void the deal if Ordonez spent more than 25 days on the DL with a recurrence of the knee injury that cost him most of 2004.

Ordonez’s tenure in the Motor City has been, for the most part, mutually beneficial.  Through the first four years of the contract, Ordonez hit .323/.383/.510 with an OPS+ of 132.  He helped the Tigers to their first World Series in 22 years in 2006 (no small feat given they were just three years removed from that 119 loss season) and finished second in the MVP voting after posting the best year of his career at age 33 in 2007.

Overall, did the Tigers get their money’s worth?  According to the valuations at FanGraphs, kind of:

That’s an interesting chart.  Ordonez has performed below his contract value in three of the four years as a Tiger, yet outpaced expectations so far in 2007, it’s skewed his value.  It raises the kinds of questions that are commonplace among fans:  Would you take a veteran on an expensive four year deal knowing that he would perform slightly below “market” value in three of those with the fourth year an MVP caliber season?

Of course, I only mention four years because Ordonez’s fifth year could cause you to reach a different conclusion.

The year, Ordonez has a 0.9 WAR which, according to FanGraphs, gives him a value of $4.3 million.  This happens to coincide with the most expensive year in his contract as he’s due to make $18 million.  It doesn’t take advanced math to determine that he’s hasn’t lived up to his part of the contract this season.  Here are the values with the fifth year included:

That changes things, doesn’t it?

Normally, this would serve as a cautionary tale against giving past their prime players a long-term contract.  Actually, it’s more than that.  You see, Ordonez’s contract is not only expensive in terms of the base cost, but there were incentives built in to trigger options in 2010 and 2011.

The details, according to Cot’s:

The 2010 option is guaranteed at $18 million if Ordonez has:
– 135 starts or 540 PA’s in 2009, or
– 270 starts or 1,080 PA’s in 2008-09

Basically, there’s four ways for Ordonez to trigger the option.  Let’s look at the numbers.   Through September 1, Ordonez has:

– 99 starts in 2009.  The Tigers have 31 games remaining.  Even if he starts every game from now until the end of the year, he’ll only have 130 starts in 2009.  That leaves him five starts short.

– 243 starts from 2008-2009.  Ohhh… This could be close.  Ordonez will need to start in 27 of the Tigers final 31 games to kick in the option.

– 415 PA’s in 2009.  He would need to average over 4 plate appearances a game from now to the end of the season.

– 1,038 PA’s from 2008-2009.  Uh-oh.  He’s just 42 plate appearances from hitting his number and cashing a cool $18 million in 2010.

Ordonez is averaging 4.2 PA’s per start this season.  Obviously, that means if the Tigers give their outfielder 10 starts in the final 31 games, his option will kick in.

Now the focus shifts from whether or not the contract was worth it, to the ethics of incentive clauses.  The Tigers are leading the Central by 3.5 games and Ordonez is playing slightly above what could be expected from a replacement level player.

True, Ordonez hasn’t been very good this summer, but over his last 23 games (84 PA’s) he’s hitting .347/.429/.528.  Sure, that’s a small sample size and hit power is pretty much gone (the 3 doubles and 2 home runs he’s hit over that span would project to 21 doubles and 14 homers for a full season) but you can’t deny he’s helping his team by finding ways to get on base.  At FanGraphs, RJ Anderson suggested the Tigers sit Ordonez against right-handed pitchers because the 2009 splits show right-handers have been having their way against him this year.  That’s great, except most of Ordonez’s recent hot streak has come against rightys.

This is all a small sample size, but in a pennant race, you have to go with who’s currently making positive things happen.  That’s why this is relevant.  With the return of Carlos Guillen and the mid-season acquisition of Aubry Huff, it was possible the Tigers could have marginalized Ordonez by using Clete Thomas and Ryan Rayburn.  The mistake the Tigers made was not doing this earlier.  Huff has been horrible since his trade and Thomas and Rayburn are both fading down the stretch.

This means that it now appears that Ordonez gives the Tigers their best option at maintaining their lead over the Twins.  With a month to go, the Tigers are about to roll the dice on an $18 million wager.   It’s now post-season or bust for Detroit.