Posted by Bill Baer on Monday, August 31, 2009 at 10:09 pm

J.A. Happ is an enigma, that’s what he is. Let’s start with the first name, J.A. No, it’s not pronounced Jay A; it’s pronounced Jay. Okay. Well, now that that’s out of the way.

He’s also one of the leading candidates for this season’s National League Rookie of the Year award. This is the same guy who could not beat out Chan Ho Park for a spot in the Philadelphia Phillies’ rotation out of spring training. He’d always been referred to as a Major Leaguer with a limited ceiling, like a #4 or 5 pitcher at best.

And yet, he has the fifth-lowest ERA in the National League. And yet, the struggling Cole Hamels has been worth more than a half-win more than Happ this season.

Figuring out Happ is going to be tough. Is he for real, or has his success this season been illusory?

Looking at his pitching ratios on his page at Baseball Reference, nothing jumps out as abnormal. Homers, strikeouts, walks — all close to the league averages. We can’t really compare his batted ball ratios to himself since he only had about 36 innings of work going into the season. Additionally, his Minor League splits varied wildly.

In 2007 for Lehigh Valley, he was about even with ground balls and fly balls at 30.4% and 31.8% respectively, according to StatCorner. In 2008, those numbers changed to 42% and 29% respectively, and his regressed TRA was nearly 0.5 better. This season in the Majors, his GB/FB split is 39% and 43.4%. The best we can do on this one is shrug our shoulders.

BABIP! Ah, BABIP. .251 this season. It was .327 in ‘07 and .310 in ‘08 in AAA. Huge difference. As we know, pitchers have little control of their BABIP. As noted by his pitching ratios on Baseball Reference, Happ is giving up extra-base hits at a 34% clip this season, right at the league average. Further, his HR/BIA% (the percentage of balls in the air that are home runs; similar to HR/FB%) this season is around 6.5%, which is between his two percentages from ‘07 and ‘08 in the Minors, according to StatCorner.

Let’s dig a bit deeper into BABIP. As Phillies fan Phylan noted on Twitter:

JA Happ BABIP numbers (league averages): men on .196 (.301), RISP .143 (.295), 2 outs and RISP .093 (.287)

It’s true: Happ hasn’t been giving up hits when his opponents are threatening to score. The only situations in which opponents have an OPS higher than .600 against him are:

• Runner on first: .781 OPS
• Bases empty: .725 OPS
• Runner on second: .678 OPS

That is the epitome of “bend, but don’t break”. It’s also an unsustainable way to pitch. I’m reminded of Robinson Tejeda when he pitched for the Phillies in 2005. It seemed like he’d always put runners on (usually via walk), but he’d magically escape from it, similar to Teller escaping from a straitjacket. Opponents against the Phillies’ Tejeda in 2005:

• Bases empty: .715 OPS
• RISP: .635 OPS

He finished the year with a 3.57 ERA. The Hardball Times‘ xFIP had him at 5.14. Not that Happ’s ceiling, or true talent level, is the same as Tejeda’s, but Tejeda is a correlate in this respect.

Happ’s 2.63 ERA doesn’t match up with an xFIP of 4.77 from THT. His luck — certainly not a skill — with runners on base is corroborated by his extremely high LOB% (runners left on base percentage) of 86%, compared to the league average of 72%.

He’s not doing anything differently, or better or worse, than he’s done throughout his professional baseball career. In fact, as you’d expect, he’s fooling Major League hitters less than he did Minor Leaguers. Less swinging strikes, more fouls, more balls in play.

Happ is benefiting from an ongoing statistical anomaly. The enigma has been lucky, and it won’t last. We have been waiting for his carriage to turn into a pumpkin but the clock simply has not struck midnight yet.

And we’re not wearing watches.