Posted by Bill Baer on Tuesday, August 18, 2009 at 2:15 pm

John Smoltz, Atlanta Brave.

John Smoltz, Boston Red Sock (Sox?).

Now, John Smoltz, free agent.

The last eighth months have certainly been a new experience for Smoltz. After twenty consecutive years with the Braves, the only team for which he’d ever stepped onto a Major League field, he was told his services were no longer needed and he packed his bags. In 2008, he had made five starts in April before shutting it down for a month. On June 2, he tried to help out in relief and gave up two runs in an inning of work.

That was it for John. He signed up for shoulder surgery to repair a torn right labrum and his playing career was in jeopardy. An avid golfer and a great speaker, he couldn’t have been worried about post-career job offers. At the press conference following Smoltz’s injury, Braves officials talked about his career in the past tense, as if it was over. GM Frank Wren didn’t mask his doubt, saying, “We don’t know if the outcome of that surgery will allow him to pitch and maybe come back. Or we don’t know if it will just allow him to go on with his life.”

After the 2008 season ended, the Braves made a decision that Smoltz did not fit in with their future plans and cut their ties with him, making him a free agent for the first time in his professional career. The Red Sox stepped up, seeing Smoltz as a low-risk, high-reward kind of player. With a $123 million payroll, Smoltz’s salary was a mere pebble in a vast ocean of money. The Sox jousted with the Yankees for AL East supremacy while Smoltz made six Minor League rehab starts leading up to the end of June.

He had done well rehabbing, making two starts for A Greenville, one for AA Portland, and three for AAA Pawtucket, putting up ERA’s of 1.13, 2.70, and 3.38 respectively. By the end of June, the Sox felt that Smoltz was ready for his first Major League start in over a year. On June 25, Smoltz took the mound against the Nationals in Washington. In five innings, he allowed five runs on seven hits and a walk, and struck out five. Like the Phillies’ Pedro Martinez, expectations weren’t sky-high considering their respective absences from the Majors. It was a feeler start.

Smoltz improved the next time out, allowing one run in four innings against the Baltimore Orioles. That wouldn’t become a trend. Over the remaining six starts, Smoltz would allow 31 runs in 31 innings, and here he is now, hoping that another team needs a right-handed arm for some reason — any reason.

Many think he’s done for myriad reasons. A look at his pitching splits indicates this is not the case, however — he can still do it!

Smoltz faced 186 hitters in 2009 for the Sox. Against 98 of those hitters, he threw two strikes. When hitters have two strikes against them facing Smoltz this season, they hit for a .588 OPS. However, 27 hitters were slugging 1.160 on Smoltz’s first pitch. After an 0-1 count, they hit for an .804 OPS, and after an 0-2 count, they plummeted to a .105 OPS.

Clearly, Smoltz is doing something that’s fooling hitters after 0-2 besides the fact that it’s a great pitcher’s count. He’s throwing very hittable pitches early in the count, which doesn’t allow him the ability to outmaneuver the hitter later on.

Another example that Smoltz does have something left in the tank: left-handed hitters have a 1.248 OPS against him this year. Yeah, awful. But right-handed hitters have a .649 OPS.

In this final start against the Yankees, he threw 92 pitches, but only 45 of them were fastballs according to the Pitch F/X data. This is because his fastball hadn’t been effective all season. Per FanGraphs, his fastball had been worth -5.53 runs per 100 fastballs, compared to his off-speed pitches, which were helpful pitches: his slider was worth 2.08 runs per 100 sliders, his change-up was worth 4.88 runs per 100 change-ups, and his curve was worth 0.39 runs per 100 curves. Small sample size, of course, but it illustrates how ineffective his fastball was and how unconfident Smoltz was using it.

Finally, we need to look at Smoltz’s performance by inning. According to Baseball Reference, hitters put up a .790 OPS in the first three innings against Smoltz. From the fourth inning on, hitters had a 1.191 OPS. Similarly, Smoltz’s OPS allowed significantly increases with each 25-pitch bin. That signifies that Smoltz doesn’t have the stamina for starting right now.

Any team that is thinking about signing Smoltz shouldn’t think of him as a starter, but as a right-handed reliever that will specifically pitch to right-handed hitters — a ROOGY if you will. Smoltz’s splits don’t point to a pitcher that’s finished; they point to a pitcher who has an ineffective fastball that can’t get left-handed hitters out and tires after a couple innings. Smoltz can still help out a team at the Major League level, but that team has to intelligently capitalize on his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.