What to Expect from Alcides Escobar
Posted by Zach Sanders on Thursday, August 13, 2009 at 3:44 pm
I’ll be the first one to admit it; I did not see this move coming. The Brewers sent J.J. Hardy to Triple-A yesterday, and called up super prospect Alcides Escobar to take his place at shortstop.
For all you Brewers fans and fantasy owners out there, I am here to let you know what to expect from Escobar the rest of the season.
First off, he’ll give you no power. None. He hit .298/.351/.411 in AAA this year, and had a solid LD rate of 18.9%. He fared much better against lefties, but he was ok against righties so I don’t expect a platoon split issue. In 109 games in Nashville, he stole 42 bases in 52 attempts. This is where his value lies to fantasy owners. For fans, you will love his quickness on defense, where he should be an upgrade over Hardy.
If Escobar plays every game from here on out, I would expect him to hit .258/.302/.335 and steal 12-15 bases the rest of the season. Not great numbers, but combine that with good defense and it should be an interesting experiment for the Brewers. If you’re looking for some cheap steals in a fantasy league, go after Escobar, but don’t expect him to help you in any other category.
Zach–
I was equally surprised by this. It may have been because they were looking to move Hardy, but couldn’t (and decided the bring up Escobar anyway), or they’ve opted to fold up the tent on the season. Maybe they felt that the significant defensive upgrade was worth the potential downgrade from Hardy’s offensive skills. What will be interesting is to see what they do down the stretch, both with Escobar in the lineup and with Hardy once rosters expand.
I don’t agree that Escobar will bring “no power,” since he’s done well with XBH in the minors the past two seasons. 48 2B, 11 3B and 12 HRs at two levels over the past two seasons, for an ISO of around .120. Not amazing, but he’s going to deliver at least a bit of doubles power with his speed and ability to get a ball in the gap now and then. He doesn’t have the power of Hardy, but he’s no Luis Castillo, either (the definition of “no power,” with a career ISO of .063).
I’m probably just splitting hairs here, since your projected ISO of 0.077 is not ungenerous, but I can see him racking up a few more XBH now and then, for an ISO that might push (or even top) .100. Given that Hardy had a .367 SLG on the season (ISO of .138), Escobar is unlikely to be as significant a downgrade in the power department as first appeared.
And, of course, for traditional roto leagues that measure HR (and not SLG) your designation of “no power” is probably going to be dead-on.