Posted by Rob McQuown on Sunday, August 2, 2009 at 9:42 am

As noted here numerous times, preventing runs wins more games than scoring runs… IF you have the advantage already.  This is a natural derivative of the time-tested Pythagorean Formula.  Nowhere is this more apparent than in late innings with a lead, which is why closers are often worth their large paychecks, and defensive replacements are brought into games by savvy managers.

With that in mind, consider the position player updates the Red Sox made in July:

Vic Martinez replaces George Kottaras – Heh.  Well, this wasn’t for defense.  Varitek is still a very good defensive option at catcher, though.  No need for duplicate values.

Brian Anderson and Casey Kotchman for Mark Kotsay and Adam LaRoche – It seems unlikely that Kotchman will realize his potention as a hitter, though hope is far from gone.  Ditto for “B.A.”, and he’s even further gone… if he ever hits RHP, it will be downright shocking.   But as fielders, Kotchman is like the new Doug Mientkiewicz, and while Anderson’s fielding stats are off a bit in 2009, he’s around “average” in CF (which is pretty good, if you think about it), which should make him a very good glove (and arm) in a side field.

Jed Lowrie for Julio Lugo – Lugo was never thought to be a slick fielder (except by Eric Van of the Red Sox for some reason), but nobody prepared Red Sox Nation for this year’s boot-fest.  Lowrie comes with the “steady” defensive reputation, meaning they’re not expecting him to fly around like Elvis Andrus, but to make all the plays he can reach.

Given the epiphany of Mark Kotsay at first base, as showcased to the world in the playoffs, it’s hard to see why the Sox would let him go, but the primo outfield alignment has some problems – Ellsbury is great in CF, Drew is still posting above-average defensive stats in RF, but doesn’t play all the time (though he’s been a lot more durable in Boston), and Bay’s an ironman with an iron glove in LF.  Baldelli’s defense has deteriorated, and there’s the uncertainty of when he’ll be able to play.  Enter B.A.  (well, actually, Reddick is up now, but sitting on a bench isn’t in his plans – at least until September, so expect him to go down when Drew is available again).

Not a huge deal, probably, but having a backup CF who bats the opposite way from the starter is a nice touch, too.  Ellsbury’s legs can get some rest on days when the opposing pitcher is a tough lefty like Scott Kazmir now.  This gives Boston a late-inning outfield of:

• LF: Anderson
• CF: Ellsbury
• RF: Drew

… very impressive.

The Vic Martinez move does several things.  The flip side of having a defensive lineup with the advantage is that when you’re at a disadvantage, you want offense.  And Varitek wasn’t providing any against RHP.  And Lowell is hurting.  One could argue persuasively, in fact, that a lineup with Vic at first and Youkilis at 3rd is now better than Youk/Lowell, as Lowell’s injury have caused his +/- totals to go from consistently good in Boston (+5 runs every season, 11th in MLB every season) to putrid (-16 runs already in 2009, 35th among “full time” third basemen).  Youkilis appears to be able to play “average” defense at 3b (again, this is MLB “average”, so it’s quite good), while Martinez’s defensive stats at 1b have also been “average”.  Both guys have significant time, but the sample sizes are still small enough that they may turn out to be worse, or improve with more samples and/or more experience.

For now, assuming “average/average” for the 1b/3b positions is reasonable.  This compares to “exceptional/putrid” with Youk and Lowell…. but Mark Kotsay’s good 1b defense was not only replaced, it was upgraded.  So, if the “average/average” corner situation starts a game (good for offense), the late-inning option exists now to replace Vic with a guy who’s saved (per Bill James Online) 36 runs in the past 3000 innings above an average first baseman.

To recap the C/1b/3b possibilities:

• All offense: Martinez/Youkilis/Lowell (the obvious “roto” plays)
• vs LHP: Varitek (who kills LHP)/Martinez/Youkilis (also not terrible vsR, as ‘tek is still an asset on D and “leadership”)
• All defense: Varitek/Kotchman/Youkilis
• And, not mentioned above… +Offense vs Extreme RHP (who get out RHB extra-well): Martinez/Kotchman/Youkilis

Summarizing another way – the Red Sox didn’t need LaRoche’s bat, even if it is expected to be better than Kotchman’s.  LaRoche wasn’t part of their “Plan A” offense, anyway.  And, with Vic on board, pinch-hitting for the catcher isn’t really a concern now.  But adding Kotchman’s glove makes their “Plan D” a lot better.  And Kotsay was flipped for a better defensive outfielder who also happens to be a better platoon fit for Ellsbury.  Coming back against this bullpen and defense is going to be even more difficult now, after these moves.  Will it be enough?  Who knows?  But it’s attention to detail like this which shows why Theo Epstein is still probably the best GM in the game.  Besides, you never know when a team would want to be REALLY sure about its ability to pick up a ground ball to first base…