Friday, February 10th, 2012

Diggin’ In The Defensive Dirt (Part 1) — First Basemen

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Posted by Brian Joseph on Sunday, August 2, 2009 at 8:41 am

There are a ton of metrics out there measuring defensive ability but the statistics we have available are similar to the ones that allowed the public to hold on to the notion that the world was flat. We can’t say the research scientists did was for naught since it gave someone the confidence to sail off the edge of the map. But it’s hard to imagine there wasn’t a little knot in their stomach as they did.

I get the same feeling when I look at defensive metrics. The numbers available hold value when looking at defensive performance but we’re just not at a point in our understanding of defense to know which ones hold more weight than others and which ones are essentially worthless.

For example, two recent posts focusing on defense at BDD were very interesting reads (with some impressive graphics, too) but both also presented information that should have thrown up a red flag for the writers and, at the very least, been worthy of a mention or a side note.

First, Bill Baer took “A Look at 2009 Defensive Performances”. In it, Bill looks at the best and worst at each position. Like Emilio Bonifacio running through a stop sign, Bill establishes that UZR/150 is his measure of choice for defensive ability and, for the most part, the choices the numbers point to are at least acceptable selections. Well, as long as you skip over who is considered the AL’s top short stop. For some reason, UZR/150 thinks Nick Green is the best the American League has to offer despite the handy glove work done by a handful of short stops that come to mind. Not to mention the fact that a wooden cutout on a reversible treadmill might be as effective as Green in the field. (Depending on who is operating the treadmill’s remote, of course!)

The other was a short and sweet post by Zach Sanders. “A Change of Scenery” took a look at the potential defensive impact the trades of Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, Jarrod Washburn and Justin Masterson will have. Like Bill, Zach uses UZR/150 to evaluate the impacts of the change in the pitcher’s supporting cast in the field. Lee’s data and the Phillies defense is notable since Zach’s research shows Lee benefiting from Raul Ibanez’s presence in left field because of his superior UZR/150. Not that I agree or disagree but it’s universally accepted that Ibanez isn’t stellar in the field no matter what the numbers tell us. (Hundreds of bloggers have written it, it must be true.)

Weighing one defensive metric against another at this point is futile because of the many factors that go into what occurs defensively from play to play. From defensive alignments to how hard a ball is hit to the view from the press box, there are so many factors that metrics can be impacted by.

My understanding of UZR/150 is, admittedly, rudimentary. However, from what I know, if Ryan Howard turns on a fastball late and bloops one into left field against that “shift” he always faces and it lands where the fielder would normally stand for a double, the left fielder that day is unfairly penalized.

While UZR/150 is the stat du jour for many when it comes to defensive stats, there are plenty of statistics available that offer us some insight on defensive performance. For this reason, I thought it would be a great exercise to look at as many defensive metrics — from the unpopular fielding % and RF/9 to the very popular fielding value and UZR/150 — and rank them by position for each league. The next step was to add those rankings up and come up with a cumulative ranking at each position.

Over the next week or so, I will look at each position around the Majors and present how the players ranked out at each position and which metrics were used (and where I pulled the data from).

First, we start at first base. To look at first base defense, here are the categories used and where I pulled the numbers from:

Before getting on to the results, this exercise does not argue the merits of one statistic against another but rather treats them as equals since the premise is that we’re unable to determine with certainty which defensive statistics are more valuable than others. Also, no statistic was excluded for any other reason than ignorance or to avoid redundancy. (Note to reader: Commenting with metrics you feel would add value would be greatly appreciated.)

Finally, the players evaluated were chosen by playing time at position per team with one representative per team chosen.

Now that the particulars are out of the way, here is a look at the top defenders according to this ranking system:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Casey Kotchman, Atlanta Braves
2. Travis Ishikawa, San Francisco Giants
3. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
4. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
6. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
7. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
8. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins
9. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
10 (tie). Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
10 (tie). Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs
12. Daniel Murphy, New York Mets
13. Nick Johnson, Washington Nationals
14. Chad Tracy, Arizona Diamondbacks
15. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
16. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

defense-1b-nlb.png

ANALYSIS: Based on watching the game, my first thoughts would be to put Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez at the top of the list and Ryan Howard as the most improved defender at first. From everything I have seen from Joey Votto, it’s not surprising he ranked out as 16th of 16. (Although I think a case could be made for Gil Hodges’ dead corpse finishing ahead of Votto at first.)

Watching the Giants this year, Travis Ishikawa has rarely disappointed with the glove and from Casey Kotchman’s fielding was never the issue in Atlanta before he was dealt. Former multiple Gold Glove winners Derrek Lee and Todd Helton were middle of the pack. In the case of Lee, his ailing back could be the reason and Helton hasn’t won a Gold Glove since 2004. UZR/150 supporters would agree with Helton being at least no better than middle of the pack (he ranked 13th in UZR/150 amongst NL first baggers).

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
2. Ryan Garko, Cleveland Indians
3. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays
4. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels
5. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
6. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
7. Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
8. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
9. Aubrey Huff, Baltimore Orioles
10. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
11. Russell Branyan, Seattle Mariners
12. Chris Davis, Texas Rangers
13. Jason Giambi, Oakland Athletics
14. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays

defense-1b-al.png

ANALYSIS: Gold Glove winners Kevin Youkilis, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Pena aren’t in the top three but Pena has noticeably fallen off the defensive horse this year. Teixeira’s slow start this year was on both sides of the ball and other than his superior fielding percentage, most of his numbers are mediocre when compared to the rest of the AL.

Top three: Paul Konerko is #1 and is no lower than sixth in any metric. Ryan Garko has been considered weak on the glove side for most of his career but there have been counterclaims that this has been overstated so maybe him being #2 isn’t ridiculous. At #3, Lyle Overbay was a popular guess when I asked those more knowledgeable about the American League than me (after Kyle Youkilis and Mark Teixeira) so it’s no surprise to see him here.

At the bottom is the aforementioned Pena and Jason Giambi. Giambi could be replaced with a brick wall with a hole in it and yield similar unspectacular results.

Next Up: Second basemen!

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Comments

2 Responses to “Diggin’ In The Defensive Dirt (Part 1) — First Basemen”
  1. Colin Wyers says:

    Your premise is wrong. There is absolutely no reason for us to think that Fielding Percentage and UZR/150 are equally as valuable. And five minutes of study would have told you that Fangraph’s Fielding Value and UZR/150 are, in fact, the same exact stat, with UZR/150 simple prorated out to 150 games. What is the point of this article supposed to be?

  2. Brian Joseph says:

    The idea is to look at a number of different defensive metrics and see who ranks out as the best without giving any weight to any particular metric. I thought that was pretty clear but I have a gut feeling that your question was more snarky and demeaning than inquisitive. But I’ll kid myself and assume you are being inquisitive to further this discussion and continue working toward better clarity of defensive ability.

    Besides, if UZR/150 is more valuable than Fielding % in your opinion and Fangraph’s Fielding Value is the same as UZR/150 then, by accident, the formula here weighs UZR/150 more heavily since both statistics are used.

    However, we’re still in the primitive phases of our understanding of defense statistically. The idea here was to bring some different metrics into play from a number of different sources, rank the players and see how they ranked out. There’s no claim here, really. At some point, it may make sense to weigh out different metrics but I don’t think it is fair to exclude any particular metric and ignore it when we try and determine superior fielders.

    For my money, Pujols and Youkilis are the top fielding first basemen in their leagues. The fact that Pujols has an impressive 50 OOZ plays makes me think maybe my evaluation of Pujols is partially impacted by watching shows like Baseball Tonight and MLB Quick Pitch where I’ve probably seen all 50 OOZ plays but haven’t seen Pujols’ complete body of work. To be able to look and see that Pujols is 8th in UZR/150 and 9th in fielding % also makes me question my impression… albeit only for this year in a small sample of data, really.

    You and I probably disagree on a lot of things, Colin. Personally, I’m of the belief that statistics are interdependent and the more data we can look at, the better. Settling on one particular metric as the end-all, be-all (i.e. declaring baseball’s best fielders by looking at UZR/150 only) is never going to settle well with me.

    At the same time, I’m not content that equally weighing out each category used is the most effective way to do business either although, so far, I’m not disgusted with how the lists rank out. The same can’t be said for most of these numbers individually since UZR/150 and Fiedling Bible +/- both make a case for Daniel Murphy being in the upper echelon of first basemen in the NL. Having seen more than my fair share of Mets games this year and having more than my fair share of discussions with Mets fans, there is no way that Murphy is anything more than adequate there and even the most diehard of Mets fans don’t argue that point. Adding in the other data rankings drags Murph down to the bottom half of 1st basemen… and that makes a lot of sense to me.

    Sorry my post irritated you. The goal wasn’t that.

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