Posted by Eric Polsky on Friday, July 31, 2009 at 8:36 pm

Just prior to today’s trade deadline, the Washington Nationals sent Nick Johnson to the Florida Marlins for minor league pitcher Aaron Thompson.  The trade reminds me of a lyric from one of my favorite songs, I-76 by G Love and Special Sauce: “Back to the woods for the fresh parlay…Maybe even spark a little nicki J.”  What that means I’m not sure, but I do know that this trade means that the Marlins should get a little spark from this Nicki J.

The Marlins’ plan is for Johnson to play regularly at first base, while current first baseman Jorge Cantu will slide over to third base.  The Marlins’ current third baseman, Emilio Bonifacio, will be relegated to a utility role, providing depth at several positions, including third base, shortstop, second base, and outfield. 

The swap of Johnson for Bonifacio in the Marlins’ starting lineup will be a significant upgrade. Bonifacio has struggled for much of this year, hitting .248 with an OBP of .293 and OPS of .600.   There are only seven players in all of baseball with a lower OBP than Bonifacio and only Willy Taveras has a lower OPS than Bonifacio thus far.

Johnson, on the other hand, has hit .295 for the Nationals this year, with an OBP of .408 and OPS of .810.  Only eight other players in all of baseball have a higher OBP than Johnson.  So, swapping the player with the eighth worst OBP with the player with the ninth best OBP should give quite a little spark to the Marlins’ offense.

Also, Bonifacio was regularly hitting second in the Marlins’ lineup, just ahead of the NL’s batting average leader, Hanley Ramirez.  Johnson will likely replace Bonifacio as the Marlins’ number two hitter, creating a lot more potential for production at the top of the Marlins’ lineup. Johnson will also get quite a few pitches to hit while hitting in front of Ramirez.

Defensively, the Marlins figure to break even.  Johnson and Cantu have similar fielding statistics at first base this season in terms of fielding percentage and errors. Cantu then replaces Bonifacio at third, where Bonifacio has been the worst third baseman statistically in baseball after Chipper Jones.  Cantu’s not much of an upgrade over Bonifacio, as he also graded out as one of the worst third basemen last season. So consider the fielding a wash.

The downside to the deal is that the Marlins lose some speed in their lineup. But the Marlins haven’t really been using their speed thus far, with Bonifacio having only stolen 19 bases.  Instead, the Marlins’ lineup will look more like last season’s, when Mike Jacobs manned first base.  When Jacobs was in the lineup, the Marlins set a record for the most homeruns in history by an infield, with each of the regulars (Jacobs, Cantu, Ramirez, and Dan Uggla) hitting over 29.  Johnson won’t hit 29 homers (only 6 so far in 2009), but his left-handed production will resemble more Jacobs than Bonfacio.

Johnson’s struggled with injuries throughout his career. He missed most of 2008 and all of 2007, but he’s played in 98 of Washington’s 102 games this season. If he can stay healthy, maybe Nicki J will provide a little spark to the Marlins in their quest for a playoff spot.