Posted by Brian Joseph on Monday, July 27, 2009 at 3:22 pm

With no more than 40% of the season remaining, the playoff race is shaping up and while there isn’t a team mathematically eliminated — not even the Washington Nationals — some teams have the grim reaper sitting on their door steps.

To give an idea of where each team stands, here’s an estimate of what it will take to win each division or sneak in as the Wild Card:

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

Wins Window / Target: 89-93 / 91

Philadelphia Phillies (56-40, .583)

Target Record: 35-31, .530

Could the Phillies play .500 ball the rest of the year and still make the postseason? A .500 record puts them at 89 wins and would force the Marlins or Braves to win 60% of their remaining games to knock off the defending champions. Imagine how much harder that becomes if the Phillies add Roy Halladay.

Atlanta Braves (51-48, .515)

Target Record: 40-23, .635

The Braves have improved slightly since they added Nate McLouth and Ryan Church but their 25-22 record since bringing on McLouth won’t be enough to get the club back into the race completely. Those who pegged the Braves as contenders love their pitching. They’ll need a lot of it to close the 6-1/2 game gap between them and the Phillies AND move ahead of the Marlins.

Florida Marlins (51-48, .515)

Target Record: 40-23, .635

Good news: The Marlins still have games remaining against the Nationals. Bad news: The Marlins still have games remaining against the rest of the league. 9-0 vs. the Nationals and 42-48 vs. the rest, it’s hard to figure if the Marlins are for real or not. Like the Braves, they have great pitching but like the Braves, they face the same 6-1/2 game gap to overcome to catch the Phillies.

New York Mets (46-51, .474)

Target Record: 45-20, .692

It’s hard to blame the Mets for their poor showing with the quantity and quality of injuries the club has suffered but pointing a small finger at GM Omar Minaya for not considering depth issues that were obvious — especially in the rotation — is probably warranted. Now, the Mets have to leap three teams to get them to the top of the NL East… or seven teams to earn a Wild Card. That’s no easy task!

Washington Nationals (30-68, .306)

Target Record: 61-3, .953

Ummm… yeah!

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

Wins Window / Target: 85-89 / 87

Chicago Cubs (51-45, .531)

Target Record: 36-30, .545

With so many teams cluttered together, 87 might be too low of a target to win this division but, for now, that’s where the bar is placed. If the Cubs can find their ‘08 offense to go along with their impressive pitching, they could run away with this division. Although the Cardinals really helped themselves, the Cubs were the best team in this division going into the year and not much has happened to change my opinion. But I’m stubborn.

St. Louis Cardinals (53-48, .525)

Target Record: 34-27, .557

Can adding Matt Holliday and Julio Lugo be enough to outduel a surge from the Cubs? It’s probably more important for their impressive pitching to continue to perform and for Chris Carpenter to avoid the DL… that’s easier said than done for him.

Houston Astros (50-48, .510)

Target Record: 37-27, .578

Is this team for real? 18-12 over their last 30 games, it is obviously a possibility. It’s not hard to imagine the Astros coming back into the race AND no one actually believing it happened. Plus, the Houston faithful will still want Ed Wade and Cecil Cooper fired.

Milwaukee Brewers (49-49, .500)

Target Record: 38-26, .594

For a while, this was the surprise team of the division. Even without CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, the Brewers are a .500 team thorugh 98 games. A .500 record just won’t cut it, though. It took Sabathia for the Brewers to make a run last year and this year, it doesn’t loook like a Sabathia-type is in the cards to help the Brewers contend.

Cincinnati Reds (44-53, .454)

Target Record: 43-22, .662

The Reds are without Jay Bruce and Edinson Volquez for at least another month. Plus, they are fifth and similar to a donkey in a race full of horses.

Pittsburgh Pirates (43-55, .439)

Target Record: 44-20, .688

If they can find a way to sell off a few more proven pieces, the Pirates are likely to do so before the deadline. Unless John Russell finds a magic lamp and starts rubbing right now to make that genie appear, the best the Pirates should hope for is a .500 record the rest of the year and 75 wins for the first time in seven years.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

Wins Window / Target: 94-98 / 96

Los Angeles Dodgers (62-36, .633)

Target Record: 34-30, .531

With an 8 game lead over the Rockies, the Dodgers can probably survive on cruise control. The Rockies and Giants both are capable of making it interesting but either becoming a serious threat to the Dodgers’ dominance of the West is unlikely.

Colorado Rockies (54-44, .551)

Target Record: 42-22, .656

Even a .656 winning percentage the rest of the year would require the Dodgers to deliver some disappointing results down the stretch. Even though they’ve cleared one Hurdle, this one might not be as easy as saying “You’re fired!”

San Francisco Giants (52-46, .531)

Target Record: 44-20, .688

Are the Giants able to find some offense somewhere? (Maybe a trade could do it.) They have the pitching but the offense might not be up to snuff… plus, the lead might be insurmountable.

Arizona Diamondbacks (43-56, .434)

Target Record: 53-10, .841

It would be a great story, wouldn’t it?

San Diego Padres (38-61, . 384)

Target Record: 58-5, .921

See Nationals, Washington.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD

Wins Window / Target: 86-90 / 88

Team (Target Record) [Division Leaders in Italics]

w-Los Angeles Dodgers (26-38, .406)
e-Philadelphia Phillies (32-34, .485)
Colorado Rockies (34-30, .531)
San Francisco Giants (36-28, .563)
c-Chicago Cubs (37-29, .561)
St. Louis Cardinals (35-26, .574)
Atlanta Braves (37-26, .587)
Florida Marlins (37-26, .587)
Houston Astros (38-26, .594)
Milwaukee Brewers (39-25, .609)
New York Mets (42-23, .646)
Cincinnati Reds (44-21, .677)
Pittsburgh Pirates (45-19, .703)
Arizona Diamondbacks (45-18, .714)
San Diego Padres (50-13, .794)
Washington Nationals (58-6, .906)