J.P. Ricciardi Has No Leverage
Posted by Bill Baer on Monday, July 27, 2009 at 8:59 pm
Roy Halladay trade rumors have been at the forefront for the last two or three weeks, but nothing has become of any of it. At one point, a trade between Halladay’s Toronto Blue Jays and the Philadelphia Phillies was imminent, but the two clubs could not iron out all of their differences. Throughout, Jays’ GM J.P. Ricciardi — rumored to be running out of rope with the organization — has been playing hardball, but the truth is that he has very little leverage to work with. Let’s look at the reasons why.
- The Jays, for good reason, do not want to trade Halladay to a division rival
- Halladay has a no-trade clause and has stated that, if he is to be traded, he wants to go to a contender
- Halladay has a spring training home in Dunedin, Florida and prefers to go to a team that holds spring training in the state
Now, let’s go through the process of elimination with the 29 other MLB teams.
AL East teams: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles. 25 teams left.
Non-contending teams: Mets, Nationals, Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Padres, Indians, Royals, Athletics. 16 teams left.
Teams that don’t hold spring training in Florida: White Sox, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers, Giants. 7 teams left.
Remaining teams: Tigers, Twins, Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Cardinals, Astros.
Now, let’s use some logic. The Marlins aren’t in a position to add Halladay’s salary and haven’t shown one iota of interest anyway. Ditto the Pirates, Astros, and Twins. The Cardinals just traded for Matt Holliday and have made their big acquisition.
That leaves the Tigers and Phillies. And the Tigers aren’t interested. That leaves the Phillies.
The only way the Jays can regain leverage with Halladay is if either the organization or Halladay acquiesces. Otherwise, the Phillies are the only logical landing point for Halladay, and the Jays should take what they can get while they can get it. If they choose to hold on to him for the off-season, they are not going to get nearly as much value for the star pitcher since teams are only getting one season plus two compensatory picks as a result of Hallday’s Class A free agent status.
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro shouldn’t feel that he has to give up a bunch of top prospects to get Halladay. Making Kyle Drabek the centerpiece of the deal, and adding some spare parts is enough to compensate the Jays for Roy Halladay. Consider the Twins’ trade of Johan Santana: from the Mets, they received Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber, which were the #2, 3, 4, and 7 prospects according to Baseball America.
Comparatively, the Jays turned down the Phillies’ counter-offer of Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Michael Taylor, and J.A. Happ, the #2, 4, 6, and 9 prospects according to BA. That offer was fair and extremely unlikely to be matched by anyone for whom Halladay would be willing to waive his no-trade clause. Ricciardi shot it down with flair.
It will be interesting to see if Ricciardi is just putting on a show, or if he really thinks he can get more for Halladay than what the Phillies are offering. In a tenure marked by missed opportunities, failing to trade Halladay during the 2009 season could be the biggest — and deadliest — mistake of Ricciardi’s career with the Jays.
It’s funny how clear things can look when logic is used. I really wonder if Ricciardi is using logic here, holding out to get the most possible up until the end or if he really thinks he is going to get half a team’s farm system in return.
It should be interesting.
Ricciardi will be able to get a nice package next year OR can let Halladay walk and take the two picks. The Jays stafff will be reloaded next year and a few young hitters will be a year better.
It’s hard to say Ricciardi doesn’t have leverage when his team can compete next year with Halladay and, if they falter, half a year of Halladay will still be valuable. See Sabathia, CC in 2008.
Another thing to consider is that, if you are right about Ricciardi’s options, it’s hard for him to drive up Halladay’s value. Hence, waiting a year might find more suitors.
Ricciardi will be able to get a nice package next year
That’s not necessarily true. A) Teams will be paying either for just one year for a free agency-bound Halladay (if deal is made in the off-season), or for two months (if done in July 2010). Whatever the haul, it won’t be as rich as what Ricciardi could get right now.
can let Halladay walk and take the two picks
He’s much better off taking known quantities rather than rolling dice in the draft.
if they falter, half a year of Halladay will still be valuable
Given the economy, it’s unlikely the Jays get anything close to what the Brewers got — and the Indians didn’t get as much as they would if they had traded Sabathia earlier. Obviously, Matt La Porta was the centerpiece of that deal (the Kyle Drabek, if you will) but the other two guys — Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson — won’t be contributing to the Brewers at the MLB level for a while, if at all.
it’s hard for him to drive up Halladay’s value. Hence, waiting a year might find more suitors.
That’s a good point.
You didn’t eliminate the Braves
Heh, good catch Dix. But they’re not interested, so we can scratch ‘em off.
Good article, I agree with every point you made. I think Ricciardi would be making a huge mistake holding on to Halladay past the deadline. I wrote a post at my site where I looked at the teams involved in the Halladay market in terms of how both the Santana and Bedard trades have changed the way teams do these deals. The conclusion I came to? J.P. Ricciardi is a crazy person. Feel free to check it out.
http://60and6.wordpress.com/2009/07/27/this-week-in-crazy-j-p-ricciardi-is-a-crazy-person/
Bill, The Phillies offer is even better than what the Twins got for Santana. Consider the following: 1) Santana was three years younger when the Mets got him; 2) the economy has changed. Teams are more concerned about payroll now than they were two years ago.