Posted by Eric Polsky on Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 3:56 am

When was the last time you had a can of Surge soda? Or how about a juice box of Ecto Cooler? These were once popular green sugary beverages that have unfortunately since been discontinued.  Surge was a Coca-Cola rival to PepsiCo’s Mountain Dew and it was discontinued in 2001 (though it can apparently still be found in Norway as a soda called Urge). Ecto Cooler was a flavor of Hi-C tied in with the movie Ghostbusters and everyone’s favorite ghost, Slimer. It too was discontinued in 2001. 
Why on earth does this relate to baseball? Well, we’re at the All-Star Break, and aside from daydreaming about discontinued green sugary drinks, I wanted to know which players traditionally have had a second half “surge”, and who’s done the opposite and ecto cooled off. This can be important information for teams that are deciding which players to rely on for their playoff run, and which players to buy or sell.
First, let’s take a look at pitchers. I checked out the career splits of current starters and relievers (courtesy of baseballreference.com) and focused on the pitcher’s ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, strikeout-to-walk rate, and opponents’ batting average.  What I found is this list of pitchers who could be due for a surge in the second half:

Starting Pitchers

CC Sabathia
Career Pre All-Star ERA 3.89, WHIP 1.26, K/9 7.1, SO/BB 2.46, Opp. Avg. .249
Career Post All-Star ERA 3.39, WHIP 1.21, K/9 8.0, SO/BB 2.90, Opp. Avg. .243
CC was amazing last year for the Brewers after he was dealt, pitching often on four days rest and almost single handedly pitching them into the playoffs. His numbers throughout his career also indicate that he’s a stronger second half pitcher. If pitching in the new Yankee Stadium turns out to be easier in the summer heat, Sabathia’s numbers could improve in the second half of this season as well.

Rich Harden
Pre All-Star ERA 3.64, WHIP 1.31, K/9 9.4, SO/BB 2.31, Opp. Avg. .231
Post All-Star ERA 3.28, WHIP 1.18, K/9 8.7, SO/BB 2.36, Opp. Avg. .212
Harden was also dealt just prior to the second half of 2008, from Oakland to the Cubs, and he also showed an improvement in his numbers after the break. In 2006 and 2007 Harden was mostly injured and pitched a total of four games after the all-star breaks. But, Harden’s 2004 and 2005 splits also indicate that he’s a better second half pitcher. He’s struggled thus far in 2009, and based on his history, he’s a good bet to turn his season around.

Roy Oswalt
Pre All-Star ERA 3.39, WHIP 1.25, K/9 7.2, SO/BB 3.27, Opp. Avg. .262
Post All-Star ERA 2.89, WHIP 1.14, K/9 7.6, SO/BB 4.03, Opp. Avg. .246
Oswalt has perhaps the most striking split on this list. He’s also had better second halves in every season of his career aside from 2005. If Oswalt’s “numbness” in his pitching hand isn’t anything serious, he should definitely be a pitcher to target as his 2009 numbers are already improving (2.57 ERA, 14 IP, 12 K, .167 Opp BA, 0.71 WHIP in two July starts)

Randy Johnson
Pre All-Star ERA 3.55, WHIP 1.20, K/9 10.4, SO/BB 3.09, Opp. Avg. .225
Post All-Star ERA 2.98, WHIP 1.14, K/9 10.8, SO/BB 3.46, Opp. Avg. .215
It’s too bad that RJ has a shoulder injury and could be out for four to eight weeks, because he’s traditionally been a better second half pitcher.  In every season since 2000, he’s had better numbers after the All-Star break.  If he comes back healthy, he’d be a good bet to have better numbers than he’s had thus far in 2009.

A.J. Burnett
Pre All-Star ERA 3.90, WHIP 1.31, K/9 8.4, SO/BB 2.19, Opp. Avg. .236
Post All-Star ERA 3.71, WHIP 1.27, K/9 8.3, SO/BB 2.26, Opp. Avg. .234
His strikeout rate is slightly worse, but all of Burnett’s other numbers have improved in his second halves, especially in the last three seasons.  It appears he has better control after the break, and if the new Yankee Stadium also has better control of the baseballs that are hit there as the summer heats up (see CC Sabathia, above), A.J. could make a second half surge.

Cole Hamels
Pre All-Star ERA 3.99, WHIP 1.22, K/9 8.4, SO/BB 3.61, Opp. Avg. .252
Post All-Star ERA 3.08, WHIP 1.09, K/9 8.5, SO/BB 3.93, Opp. Avg. .229
This is a slightly smaller sample size than the veterans on this list, but Hamels has shown signs of being a better second half pitcher thus far in his career. He’s had some struggles this season, which Phillies’ pitching coach Rich Dubee has suggested is due to a heavy workload the past three years. But if Hamels settles down and perhaps gets some rest, he could be in for a nice second-half turn-around.

Matt Cain
Pre All-Star ERA 3.71, WHIP 1.31, K/9 7.7, SO/BB 1.91, Opp. Avg. .235
Post All-Star ERA 3.30, WHIP 1.21, K/9 7.6, SO/BB 2.22, Opp. Avg. .251
Cain’s also had a small sample size as his first full year was 2006, but he’s clearly been more dominant in the second half. If his elbow injury isn’t serious (see an annoying trend here with these injuries by the way?), then Cain’s also due for a good second half, though its hard to imagine numbers much better than he’s put up thus far in 2009.

Kevin Millwood
Pre All-Star ERA 4.37, WHIP 1.36, K/9 6.9, SO/BB 2.37, Opp. Avg. .266
Post All-Star ERA 3.61, WHIP 1.24, K/9 7.3, SO/BB 2.83, Opp. Avg. .251
Millwood’s also been a better second half pitcher throughout his career. He’s already having a good season by his more recent standards, and if he improves on that, he could be one of the best pitchers in baseball down the stretch.

Andy Pettitte
Pre All-Star ERA 4.17, WHIP 1.41, K/9 6.3, SO/BB 2.11, Opp. Avg. .277
Post All-Star ERA 3.64, WHIP 1.32, K/9 6.8, SO/BB 2.63, Opp. Avg. .265
Last season, Pettitte had a slightly worse second half, but throughout his career, Pettitte’s usually been stronger after the break.  If he figures out how to keep his home numbers down (see Yankee Stadium and CC and A.J., above), he also could have a second half surge.

Derek Lowe
Pre All-Star ERA 3.96, WHIP 1.31, K/9 5.7, SO/BB 2.01, Opp. Avg. .259
Post All-Star ERA 3.54, WHIP 1.23, K/9 6.1, SO/BB 2.81, Opp. Avg. .258
Aside from two seasons (2002 and 2007), Lowe’s had better second half numbers.  His numbers with Atlanta thus far aren’t as good as one might expect, but if Lowe makes some adjustments to living on the East Coast after a four year hiatus in L.A., he could return to a high level of production in the second half.

Bronson Arroyo
Pre All-Star ERA 4.81, WHIP 1.43, K/9 6.1, SO/BB 2.06, Opp. Avg. .281
Post All-Star ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.27, K/9 6.3, SO/BB 2.33, Opp. Avg. .254
Arroyo showed a real improvement most recently in the second half in 2007 and 2008, and he also did so in the early part of his career (2000-02).  Arroyo’s an under the radar candidate for a surge down the stretch.

Jorge De La Rosa
Pre All-Star ERA 5.90, WHIP 1.60, K/9 8.1, SO/BB 1.89, Opp. Avg. .287
Post All-Star ERA 4.76, WHIP 1.62, K/9 6.7, SO/BB 1.18, Opp.Avg. .262
They aren’t “good” second halves by any means, but for what its worth, De La Rosa has been a better pitcher in the second half aside from 2007’s numbers.  If teams are looking for a stop-gap or average starter, he could be a decent option. He’s already showing signs of improvement (15.1 IP, 12 K, 2.94 ERA, .212 Opp. Avg, 1.26 WHIP in 2 July starts).

Relief Pitchers

Chad Qualls
Pre All-Star ERA 3.79, WHIP 1.26, K/9 7.5, SO/BB 3.14, Opp. Avg. .263
Post All-Star ERA 2.70, WHIP 1.12, K/9 7.1, SO/BB 2.86, Opp.Avg. .234
If the Diamondbacks can give Qualls some more leads after the break, Qualls could be a lot more productive and earn more saves, as his performance has traditionally been much better in the second half.

Brian Fuentes
Pre All-Star ERA 3.63, WHIP 1.22, K/9 9.9, SO/BB 2.81, Opp. Avg. .226
Post All-Star ERA 3.08, WHIP 1.24, K/9 10.7, SO/BB 2.65, Opp.Avg. .219
Fuentes is already finding his groove in his new L.A. digs, and based on his career trends, the second half of 2009 should be more of the same. Its likely the Angels won’t be missing K-Rod as much as they had expected.

Jonathan Broxton
Pre All-Star ERA 3.17, WHIP 1.16, K/9 11.5, SO/BB 2.99, Opp. Avg. .203
Post All-Star ERA 2.85, WHIP 1.20, K/9 12.4, SO/BB 3.67, Opp.Avg. .222
Broxton’s numbers seem to be pretty consistent between the first and second half, but an increased strikeout rate and lower ERA, as seen here, would also be welcome for the Dodgers in 2009 as they race towards the NL pennant.

Fernando Rodney
Pre All-Star ERA 4.86, WHIP 1.42, K/9 8.1, SO/BB 1.90, Opp. Avg. .241
Post All-Star ERA 3.60, WHIP 1.39, K/9 9.4, SO/BB 1.98, Opp.Avg. .234
If Tigers fans are learning that they can be comfortable with Rodney as their closer, then their beliefs could be reinforced down the stretch, as Rodney’s second half numbers have traditionally been more impressive in his career.

Brian Wilson
Pre All-Star ERA 4.57, WHIP 1.45, K/9 9.9, SO/BB 2.21, Opp. Avg. .252
Post All-Star ERA 3.67, WHIP 1.30, K/9 7.6, SO/BB 2.07, Opp.Avg. .240
Wilson’s been slightly shaky thus far this season, but the numbers indicate that he could settle down and be a solid closer for the Giants during their playoff run.

On the other hand, here’s a few pitchers that could be due for a second half cooler:

Starting Pitchers

Jason Marquis
Pre All-Star ERA 4.16, WHIP 1.35, K/9 5.3, SO/BB 1.54, Opp. Avg. .253
Post All-Star ERA 4.93, WHIP 1.51, K/9 5.2, SO/BB 1.46, Opp.Avg. .285
It’s pretty much a general consensus that Marquis can’t keep up his current All-Star pace in 2009, and his career second half numbers support that consensus as well. The controversial All-Star is likely to have that cooling off period in Coors after the break.

Justin Verlander
Pre All-Star ERA 3.48, WHIP 1.21, K/9 7.9, SO/BB 2.53, Opp. Avg. .232
Post All-Star ERA 4.96, WHIP 1.49, K/9 7.7, SO/BB 2.27, Opp.Avg. .281
Verlander’s had a strong resurgence thus far in 2009 and he dominated the league in May and early June. But each season thus far in his career, Verlander’s had a horrible second half. He could be due for the same this season, which would be devastating to Tigers fans.

Dan Haren
Pre All-Star ERA 3.08, WHIP 1.06, K/9 7.4, SO/BB 3.85, Opp. Avg. .225
Post All-Star ERA 4.12, WHIP 1.33, K/9 7.6, SO/BB 3.72, Opp.Avg. .279
This might be hard to swallow for those who consider Haren as the Cy Young favorite in the NL thus far, but since 2006, Haren’s had poor second halves by his and Cy-Young’s standards: 
Post All Star 2008 ERA 4.19, Opp. Avg .294, WHIP 1.24
Post All Star 2007 ERA 4.15, Opp. Avg .298, WHIP 1.22
Post All Star 2006 ERA 4.91, Opp. Avg .280, WHIP 1.01
It seems that Haren tends to wear down over the course of a season, which he cannot do if he is serious about stealing that award from Tim Lincecum.

Brian Bannister
Pre All-Star ERA 4.17, WHIP 1.30, K/9 5.3, SO/BB 1.76, Opp. Avg. .254
Post All-Star ERA 5.37, WHIP 1.44, K/9 4.6, SO/BB 1.69, Opp.Avg. .285
This is a small sample size as it only covers two full second halves, but it suggests Bannister’s good start to 2009 could be due for a letdown after the break.

Joe Saunders
Pre All-Star ERA 3.73, WHIP 1.27, K/9 4.8, SO/BB 1.72, Opp. Avg. .253
Post All-Star ERA 4.68, WHIP 1.44, K/9 5.8, SO/BB 1.95, Opp.Avg. .283
Also a small sample size here as Saunders missed the first halves of 2006 and 2007, but Saunders’ numbers thus far in 2009 are actually in line with his career second half numbers. Those expecting a second half improvement for Saunders could very well be disappointed.

Jeremy Guthrie
Pre All-Star ERA 3.93, WHIP 1.21, K/9 5.9, SO/BB 2.31, Opp. Avg. .244
Post All-Star ERA 4.72, WHIP 1.50, K/9 5.9, SO/BB 1.61, Opp.Avg. .278
Guthrie’s only been a regular starter since 2007, so not a large sample size here either. But for anyone expecting Guthrie to turn his 2009 season around, there’s no indication that the summer months help.

John Danks
Pre All-Star ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.28, K/9 7.4, SO/BB 2.41, Opp. Avg. .248
Post All-Star ERA 5.34, WHIP 1.45, K/9 7.4, SO/BB 2.41, Opp.Avg. .282
Yes, yet another small sample size as Danks has only started for two years, but he has shown a slight drop-off in numbers in 2007 and 2008.

Relief Pitchers

Heath Bell
Pre All-Star ERA 2.60, WHIP 1.16, K/9 8.6, SO/BB 3.03, Opp. Avg. .230
Post All-Star ERA 4.59, WHIP 1.30, K/9 9.9, SO/BB 3.22, Opp.Avg. .252
This is Bell’s first year as the closer in San Diego, but he spent three seasons with the Mets prior to his joining the Padres in 2007. Throughout his career, Bell’s struggled in the second half.  We’ll see if he’ll suffer the same fate in his new role, which would expose a major problem for Bell’s future as the Padres’ next man after Hoffman.

George Sherrill
Pre All-Star ERA 2.86, WHIP 1.13, K/9 9.1, SO/BB 2.30, Opp. Avg. .195
Post All-Star ERA 4.90, WHIP 1.44, K/9 9.9, SO/BB 2.06, Opp.Avg. .242
Sherrill’s poor second half 2008 numbers might be chalked up to injury, but in prior seasons Sherrill has struggled in the second half as well.  Teams that are targeting Sherrill in trades might want to take another look at these splits and question if Sherrill would be reliable in a playoff race.

Ryan Franklin
Pre All-Star ERA 3.75, WHIP 1.26, K/9 4.8, SO/BB 1.83, Opp. Avg. .255
Post All-Star ERA 4.52, WHIP 1.39, K/9 5.1, SO/BB 1.89, Opp.Avg. .274
Franklin just may have surged onto the scene with an All-Star 2009 thus far, but he has a history of cooling down in the second half since 2005. Franklin’s been a reliever since 2006 with the Reds and Phillies, and prior to that was a starter for Seattle. Aside from his early years as a starter, Franklin’s had problems in the second half. We’ll see if his new found success continues during the Cardinals’ stretch run.

That’s it for pitchers. Later on this week, I’ll take a look at hitters who show similar splits and which drink they’d be likely to choose.