Posted by Jeff Lubbers on Tuesday, July 14, 2009 at 2:08 am

It seems that since Bobby Abreu’s offensive decline following the 2005 Home Run Derby any participant in the Derby must answer as many questions about the prospect of a post-break drop off as about the actual Derby.  Does swinging a bat with a single goal somehow carry over to the games that really matter the rest of the season?

Looking back at all of the Home Run Derby events to 2000 there are definitely some players with notable declines in home run output following the contest.  Excluding those who missed time to injury in the second half, those with some of the most significant drop offs include:

Player	Year	Pre-Break AB/HR	Post-Break AB/HR	% Drop
Justin Morneau	2007	13.4	38.2	65%
Bobby Abreu	2005	17.9	44.2	59%
David Wright	2006	17	40.5	58%
Garrett Anderson	2003	16.8	38.2	56%
Paul Konerko	2002	16.3	34.9	53%

 

Conversely there are also players who saw a spike in home run output following the exhibition: 

Player	Year	Pre-Break AB/HR	Post-Break AB/HR	% Increase
Ivan Rodriguez	2005	49.7	25.8	93%
Matt Holliday	2007	23.9	13.2	80%
Sammy Sosa	2000	14.7	9.9	49%
David Ortiz	2005	15.6	10.5	49%
Miguel Tejada	2004	22.9	16.2	41%

 

Rodriguez in 2005 was a bit of a special case as he was likely only included so the hometown Tigers fans would have one of their own to cheer on.  In fact he is the only player in the last ten years to enter the Home Run Derby with fewer than 13 home runs (and he only had 6).

While this is a short list the general point holds that for every player who has dropped off following the contest there has been another to step up the home run production.

Instead of cherry-picking a few participants with extreme performances, how have they done before and after the break as a whole?  I looked at all 72 contestants from 2000 to 2008.  It appears that they did in fact experience a slight drop off, hitting a collective total of one home run every 14.2 at bats before the break versus one home run every 15.8 at bats after the break.  To dig a little deeper I looked at the pre and post break home run rates for those who advanced to the various stages of their respective contests.  It would seem that if swinging for home runs does in fact affect future performance then swinging for home runs in one round would be much less damaging than swinging for home runs in three rounds.

	Pre-Break AB/HR	Post-Break AB/HR
Eliminated in 1st Round	15.4	16.5
Eliminated in 2nd Round	13.9	15.2
Finalist	13.8	15.8
All Contestants	14.2	15.8

 

All three groups experienced a drop off in home runs with those who reached the final rounds experiencing the worst drop off (though most major league hitters will gladly take a home run rate of one for every 15.8 at bats).

So what do we make of the differences?  Does it mean anything?

In a word, no.  All players experience highs and lows when it comes to their offensive production.  No one knows if Abreu would have not experienced a drop off had he watched the derby from the grass in foul territory.  While the difference between the pre and post home run rates appears not to be something to be concerned about for participants, it’s also possible that the slight drop off is explained by the selection of participants. 

While Home Run Derby participants are not taken straight from the regular season home run leaderboards, most of the participants do have a high number of home runs.  And when one glances at the list of participants there are some names that are not like the others.  No one is mistaking Alex Rios (2007) for Barry Bonds.  Josh Hamilton’s amazing display in 2008 was one for the ages but it could remain his career highlight in the power department.  Hee-Seop Choi’s participation in 2005 remains a head-scratcher.

The point is that the Derby features players who have put on an inordinate power display in the first three months of the season.  And the laws of averages are often working against those very players, meaning that Derby participants may experience a slight collective power drop off the rest of the season that has nothing to do with swinging for the fences for one great evening.

Looking at the 2009 participants Phillies and Brewers fans shouldn’t worry about the participation of established sluggers Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder and its effect on their offensive output the rest of the season.  Tigers fans on the other hand shouldn’t expect to see another 20 home runs from Brandon Inge after the break for reasons that have nothing to do with his 0-fer Monday night and everything to do with his career .392 slugging percentage entering this season.