Posted by D.J. Short on Tuesday, July 14, 2009 at 10:17 am

The Nationals are bad. Really bad. We all know that. Through the season’s first 87 games, their starters have combined for just 18 wins — worst in the majors. But lost among all the muck and mediocrity is the fact that Jordan Zimmermann has performed quite admirably, and dare I say mixed-league worthy in his rookie campaign. Sure, his 3-4 record and 4.50 ERA won’t exactly pop out at you, but did you know that he has allowed three earned runs or less in seven straight starts dating back to June 4? While the likes of Rick Porcello, Tommy Hanson, Ricky Romero and Brad Bergesen have garnered more fantasy attention of late, the 23-year-old Zimmermann represents a fine bet at finding a young, breakthrough starting pitcher for the second half.

I’m sure you’re probably shaking your head at the prospect of buying a pitcher from the Nationals, but if you take a closer look, you will see how unlucky he has been. That 4.50 ERA? Yeah, largely a byproduct of the worst defense in the majors (-33.4 UZR). If we take defense out of the equation, his FIP is a very solid 3.59, slotting him between Chad Billingsley and Max Scherzer. As for BABIP, again, he’s at a highly-unlucky .335. With Nyjer Morgan now patrolling center field, I’m confident that the the Nationals defense will be slightly less sucky — and at least that’s something.

Equipped with a plus-fastball that consistently reaches 93 MPH, a hard slider, solid curve and change, he’s emerged as a top-tier pitcher in some impressive categories. Only 13 starters have bested his 8.79 K/9. Likewise, he has a very solid 3.0 K/BB ratio, putting him in some very select company alongside aces like Roy Oswalt and Johan Santana. Both are huge indicators of future success. And after giving up five homers in his first four major league starts, Zimmermann has settled down, serving up just four of them over his last 11  — a span of 64 innings.

Plucking Zimmermann from the wire is a low-risk move considering he’s only owned in 17% of Yahoo! leagues and 11.9% of ESPN.com leagues, but potential owners should take heed of the following. Currently at 91 1/3 innings pitched for the year (including one start for Triple-A Syracuse) look for the Nationals to be careful with him as he approaches his career high of 134 innings, set last season between Single-A and Double-A. It’s very possible that he will hit a wall at some point. And of course, there’s always the argument that because he is on the Nationals his win potential is low, but if we’ve learned anything over the years in fantasy, it’s that you assemble a pitching staff based on skill and peripherals. Zimmermann has strong indicators in both.

Verdict: Buy (deep-leagues)

If you have a player in mind for “Buy, Sell or Hold,” let me know by emailing short.dj@gmail.com or follow me on Twitter @djshort.