Mock All-Star Draft Version ‘09.0
Posted by Eric Polsky on Saturday, July 4, 2009 at 4:44 am
Draft gurus such as Mel Kiper and Todd McShay of ESPN seemingly each get to write about nine versions of mock drafts before the actual NFL draft takes place. They take nine shots at it and they’re still never really close. But I’ll just take one good shot at a mock All-Star draft and declare that I’ll be close. Below are the players that I think will be selected for the 2009 MLB All-Star game to take place on July 14th in St. Louis. The official selections will be announced this Sunday on TBS at 1 p.m., so we’ll see then if I can outdo the likes of Kiper and McShay.
Each team will consist of 32 players (19 hitters, 13 pitchers), and then the managers will select five additional players for a fan Final Vote for the 33rd player. Statistics here are as of Thursday night’s games:
American League
Catcher (3)
Projected Starter: Joe Mauer, MIN (.392 BA, 14 HR, 44 RBI, 1.133 OPS)
Reserves: Victor Martinez, CLE (.313 BA, 14 HR, 57 RBI, .916 OPS), Mike Napoli, LAA (.295 BA, 10 HR, 29 RBI, .887 OPS)
Snubbed: Jorge Posada, NYY (.267 BA, 10 HR, 33 RBI, .854 OPS), Jason Varitek, BOS (.234 BA, 11 HR, 32 RBI, .809 OPS), A.J. Pierzynski, CHW (.293 BA, 8 HR, 24 RBI, .765 OPS), Miguel Olivo, KC (.258 BA, 12 HR, 32 RBI, .796 OPS)
Mauer had a clear lead heading into the final two days of online voting and he’ll get a well-deserved start. Martinez splits his time at catcher and first base with Cleveland, but qualifies at catcher, which is valuable for AL manager Joe Maddon in his selection process. Napoli gets a slight edge in the next tier of catchers, even over Posada, as we will see that the Angels need a second representative based on their first place AL West record.
First Base (3)
Projected Starter: Kevin Youkilis, BOS (.314 BA, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 1.032 OPS)
Reserves: Justin Morneau, MIN (.309 BA, 19 HR, 64 RBI, .963 OPS), Miguel Cabrera, DET (.331 BA, 16 HR, 47 RBI, .951 OPS)
Snubbed: Mark Teixeira, NYY (.274 BA, 20 HR, 60 RBI, .940 OPS), Russell Branyan, SEA (.297 BA, 20 HR, 42 RBI, .997 OPS), Carlos Pena, TB (.238 BA, 23 HR, 55 RBI, .914 OPS)
Youkilis and Teixeira were locked in a very tight battle for votes for the starter spot. We won’t know the outcome of that race until Sunday, but according to MLB.com, Youkilis was ahead with two days remaining in voting. I’m going to predict that the loser of that battle will be sent to vie for the 33rd final man vote, as Morneau’s and Cabrera’s numbers are better than theirs. Branyan and Pena should be candidates for that final vote as well.
Second Base (2)
Projected Starter: Ian Kinsler, TEX (.263 BA, 19 HR, 51 RBI, 16 SB, .852 OPS)
Reserve: Aaron Hill, TOR (.301 BA, 19 HR, 56 RBI, .845 OPS)
Snubbed: Robinson Cano, NYY (.307 BA, 12 HR, 42 RBI,.829 OPS), Dustin Pedroia, BOS (.291 BA, 89 H, 14 SB, .758 OPS)
Kinsler and Pedroia were involved in another extremely close race for the starter spot. If Pedroia edges Kinsler, Maddon will have to carry three second basemen, as he can’t deny Hill and Kinsler their deserving bids. Pedroia would then squeeze out Jermaine Dye (see OF section below). But let’s assume here that the fans voted Kinsler in and overcame Red Sox Nation’s votes.
Shortstop (2)
Projected Starter: Derek Jeter, NYY (.307 BA, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 17 SB, .828 OPS)
Reserve: Jason Bartlett, TB (.362 BA, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 17 SB, .960 OPS)
Snubbed: Marco Scutaro, TOR (.279 BA, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 58 R, .794 OPS), Alexei Ramirez (.272 BA, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 12 SB, .728 OPS)
Jeter leads the vote by a wide margin and will start. Bartlett’s the most deserving reserve and Maddon will be glad to select his boy over Scutaro and Ramirez, who are having fine seasons themselves.
Third Base (2)
Projected Starter: Evan Longoria, TB (.297 BA, 16 HR, 63 RBI, .935 OPS)
Reserve: Brandon Inge, DET (.275 BA, 18 HR, 52 RBI, .888 OPS)
Snubbed: Alex Rodriguez, NYY (.239 BA, 13 HR, 41 RBI, .916 OPS), Chone Figgins, LAA (.312 BA, 24 SB, 56 R, .796 OPS), Scott Rolen, TOR (.333 BA, 6 HR, 30 RBI, .888 OPS), Michael Young, TEX (.315 BA, 10 HR, 30 RBI, .866 OPS)
Longoria is also a lock to start. Inge gets a shocking nod here over A-Rod, who missed time due to injury and has struggled to get going. Figgins, Rolen and Young are also deserving, but if Inge can edge A-Rod, he’ll do the same to this trio.
Outfield (7)
Projected Starters: Jason Bay, BOS (.262 BA, 19 HR, 69 RBI, .906 OPS), Ichiro Suzuki, SEA (.368 BA, 112 H, 16 SB, .893 OPS), Josh Hamilton, TEX* (.240 BA, 6 HR, 24 RBI, .746 OPS)
Reserves: Torii Hunter, LAA (.305 BA, 17 HR, 59 RBI, .959 OPS), Carl Crawford, TB (.320 BA, 8 HR, 38 RBI, 40 SB, .838 OPS), Adam Jones, BAL (.305 BA, 12 HR, 44 RBI, .868 OPS), Jermaine Dye, CHW (.294 BA, 18 HR, 48 RBI, .946 OPS),
Snubbed: Ben Zobrist, TB (.297 BA, 16 HR, 46 RBI, 1.051 OPS), Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS (.304 BA, 91 H, 26 RBI, 33 SB, .757 OPS), Johnny Damon, NYY (.292 BA, 15 HR, 47 RBI, .910 OPS), Adam Lind, TOR (.315 BA, 16 HR, 53 RBI, .946 OPS), Luke Scott, BAL (.297 BA, 15 HR, 40 RBI, .949 OPS)
Bay and Ichiro have enough votes to be considered locks. Hamilton, despite being injured and with non-All-Star-type numbers (yes, I believe I just properly used three hyphens), was in third place just ahead of Hunter. Hunter was charging, but I’ll project that fans can’t do enough to overcome the difference and I’ll put Hamilton in the third spot. Hamilton has been hurt, but he is expected to try to come back this week. If Hamilton decides to sit out, Maddon would likely name Zobrist as Hamilton’s injury replacement. Or (stick with me here) if Pedroia gets voted in at 2B, that would squeeze out Dye’s spot, and Maddon would name Dye as Hamilton’s replacement. Dye gets the slight edge here over Zobrist, as we will see that the White Sox only have one representative (Mark Buehrle, see pitchers below) while Tampa Bay has four. Only three games separate the White Sox and Rays, so my thought is that Maddon gives the nod to the veteran Dye to be fair. That is, unless fans made it easy for Maddon and kept Hamilton off the roster. In that case, both Dye and Zobrist are in and this all becomes moot.
On a less confusing note, Adam Jones edges Luke Scott here for the Orioles’ spot on the roster, as Scott spends his time mostly at DH, and Jones gets credit for his work in center field.
Pitchers (13)
Starter: Zack Grienke, KC (10-3, 115.1 IP, 114K, 1.95 ERA, 1.02 WHIP)
Reserves: Felix Hernandez, SEA (8-3, 109.2 IP, 107 K, 2.54 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)
Roy Halladay, TOR (8-3, 109.2 IP, 95 K, 2.56 ERA, 1.05 WHIP)
Justin Verlander, DET (8-4, 109.1 IP, 130 K, 3.54 ERA, 1.20 WHIP)
Edwin Jackson, DET (6-4, 108.1 IP, 84 K, 2.49 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)
Josh Beckett, BOS (9-3, 105.1 IP, 99 K, 3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)
Mark Buehrle, CHW (8-2, 107.2 IP, 62 K, 3.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (20 SV, 35 IP, 34K, 1.80 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)
Joe Nathan, MIN (21 SV, 31.1 IP, 39 K, 1.44 ERA, 0.77 WHIP)
Mariano Rivera, NYY (20 SV, 32.2 IP, 40K, 2.76 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)
David Aardsma, SEA (16 SV, 6 Holds, 36.1 IP, 46 K, 1.49 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Andrew Bailey, OAK (8 SV, 2 Holds, 47.1 IP, 57 K, 2.09 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)
J.P Howell, TB (6 SV, 4 Holds, 38.2 IP, 46 K, 1.63 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
Snubbed: Jered Weaver, LAA (8-3, 107.1 IP, 86 K, 3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), George Sherrill, BAL, (17 SV, 32.1 IP, 31 K, 2.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), Kevin Millwood, TEX (119 IP, 74 K, 2.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), Dallas Braden, OAK (6-7, 106.1 IP, 67 K, 3.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), Brian Fuentes, LAA (22 SV, 27 IP, 30 K, 3.62 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) Bobby Jenks, CHW (19 SV, 28.2 IP, 28 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) , Frank Francisco, TEX (12 SV, 23.2 IP, 26 K, 2.28 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)
Grienke’s been the best pitcher in the AL thus far this season and he should be the starter. Hernandez and Halladay are also locks to be selected. Verlander and Jackson have been a formidable 1-2 punch for Detroit and they should be in as well. Buehrle is the White Sox’s representative, and Beckett edges out other deserving starters such as Weaver and Millwood.
Papelbon, Nathan and Rivera should each get the call late in the All-Star game as the AL’s top three closers. Bailey edged out Braden as Oakland’s rookie pitching representative, because of the need for a reliever over a starter. Maddon’s new closer J.P. Howell edges out more well-known closers like Sherrill, Jenks, Fuentes, and Francisco, with a stellar strikeout ratio and better numbers in more innings pitched.
I’ll predict that the 33rd Final Man Vote will be between the following five players:
1) Zobrist
2) Teixeira
3) Pena
4) A-Rod
5) Branyan
Here’s a breakdown of my All-Star selections by AL team:
Boston = Youkilis, Bay, Beckett, Papelbon
New York = Rivera, Jeter
Tampa Bay = Longoria, Bartlett, Howell, Crawford
Toronto = Halladay, Hill
Baltimore = Jones
Detroit = Verlander, Jackson, Cabrera, Inge
Chicago = Buehrle, Dye
Minnesota = Mauer, Morneau, Nathan
Kansas City = Grienke
Cleveland = Martinez
LA Angels = Napoli, Hunter
Texas = Kinsler, Hamilton
Seattle = Ichiro, Felix, Aardsma
Oakland = Bailey
National League
Catcher (3)
Projected Starter: Brian McCann, ATL (.305 BA, 8 HR, 33 RBI, .893 OPS)
Reserves: Yadier Molina, STL (.279 BA, 5 HR, 25 RBI, .730 OPS), Geovany Soto, CHC (.238 BA, 8 HR, 26 RBI, .751 OPS)
Snubbed: Chris Ianetta, COL (.229 BA, 10 HR, 27 RBI, .844 OPS)
Molina and McCann are in a voting battle and while Molina was in the lead with two days left, McCann allegedly got a lot more votes in before the deadline. So I’ll go with McCann. No matter really, because Molina should get the first backup backstop slot with credit for his stellar defense. Soto edges out Ianetta for the third slot, in part because the Cubs will suprisingly need a representative.
First Base (3)
Projected Starter: Albert Pujols, STL (.335 BA, 30 HR, 77 RBI, 1.200 OPS)
Reserves: Prince Fielder, MIL (.309 BA, 21 HR, 75 RBI, 1.042 OPS), Adrian Gonzalez, SD (.265 BA, 24 HR, 48 RBI, .919 OPS)
Snubbed: Lance Berkman, HOU (.265 BA, 17 HR, 48 RBI, .919 OPS), Ryan Howard, PHI (.256 BA, 20 HR, 60 RBI, .859 OPS), Todd Helton, COL (.312 BA, 9 HR, 53 RBI, .895 OPS), Joey Votto, CIN (.366 BA, 9 HR, 39 RBI, 1.068 OPS)
I have no idea what the fans are doing here. Pujols absolutely sucks, but he gets the top spot?? Fielder and Gonzalez should earn the reserve slots, and we’ll see these snubs in the NL’s 33rd man vote as well.
Second Base (2)
Projected Starter: Chase Utley, PHI (.300 BA, 17 HR, 52 RBI, .982 OPS)
Reserve: Freddy Sanchez, PIT (.316 BA, 96 H, 33 RBI, .832 OPS)
Snubbed: Brandon Phillips, CIN (.268 BA, 11 HR, 52 RBI, .799 OPS), Orlando Hudson, LAD (.294 BA, 92 H, 41 RBI, .787 OPS)
Utley’s a lock to start having earned more than enough votes. Sanchez earns the reserve slot as Pittsburgh’s representative, edging out Phillips and O-Dog despite their decent showings.
Shortstop (2)
Projected Starter: Hanley Ramirez, FLA (.348 BA, 13 HR, 58 RBI, 12 SB, .985 OPS)
Reserve: Miguel Tejada, HOU (.333 BA, 6 HR, 42 RBI, .837 OPS)
Snubbed: Troy Tulowitzki, COL (.249 BA, 12 HR, 31 RBI, 11 SB, .803 OPS), Cristian Guzman, WAS (.318 BA, 88 H, .764 OPS)
Hanley leads the vote but is in a battle with Jimmy Rollins, who grades out as one of the worst shortstops in terms of first half numbers. If Rollins somehow edges Hanley, that throws a wrench into this system and squeezes out Mark Reynolds at 3B (see below), because Tejada deserves a spot and is Houston’s lone representative.
Third Base (3)
Projected Starter: David Wright, NYM (.338 BA, 5 HR, 42 RBI, .913 OPS)
Reserves: Pablo Sandoval, SF (.331 BA, 11 HR, 40 RBI, .937 OPS), Mark Reynolds, ARZ (.270 BA, 22 HR, 57 RBI, .916 OPS)
Snubbed: Chipper Jones, ATL (.295 BA, 9 HR, 36 RBI, .891 OPS), Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (.296 BA, 13 HR, 44 RBI, .858 OPS), Casey Blake, LAD (.286 BA, 11 HR, 48 RBI, .848 OPS)
You can put Wright down in ink because he’s got enough votes. Then Sandoval and Reynolds are both deserving. But if Rollins is voted in by the fans, one of them are out, and I’d say its Reynolds because the Diamondbacks are in last place while the Giants are the wild card leaders.
Outfield (6)
Projected Starters: Raul Ibanez, PHI (.312 BA, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 1.027 OPS), Ryan Braun, MIL (.328 BA, 16 HR, 58 RBI, .980 OPS), Carlos Beltran, NYM* (.336 BA, 8 HR, 40 RBI, .952 OPS)
Reserves: Adam Dunn, WAS (.260 BA, 20 HR, 56 RBI, .924 OPS), Brad Hawpe, COL (.333 BA, 13 HR, 56 RBI, 1.008 OPS), Matt Kemp, LAD (.302 BA, 10 HR, 41 RBI, 19 SB, .838 OPS)
Snubbed: Justin Upton, ARZ (.309 BA, 14 HR, 45 RBI, .945 OPS), Hunter Pence, HOU (.306 BA, 10 HR, 33 RBI, .872 OPS), Jayson Werth, PHI (.264 BA, 15 HR, 43 RBI, .845 OPS), Carlos Lee, HOU (.302 BA, 12 HR, 47 RBI, .832 OPS), Juan Pierre, LAD (.322 BA, 22 SB, 79 H, .791 OPS)
Beltran and Alfonso Soriano (.230 BA, 14 HR, 32 RBI, .718 OPS) are involved in a battle for the third OF slot. Whoever gets voted in will start (if healthy); whoever loses that vote I believe would be out of the game entirely. Ibanez and Braun are locks to start. Dunn’s in as the Nats’ representative. And Hawpe and Kemp are deserving over the rest of the snubs. Upton’s arguably more deserving than Kemp, but again, with Arizona in last and LA in first, NL manager Charlie Manuel should go with Kemp. But if Beltran is voted in, he might require an injury replacement, and I think Upton would get the nod there.
Pitchers (13)
Starter: Tim Lincecum, SF (8-2, 114 IP, 132 K, 2.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)
Reserves: Dan Haren, ARZ (7-5, 114 IP, 132 K, 2.19 ERA, 0.81 WHIP)
Chad Billingsley, LAD (9-4, 112.1 IP, 110 K, 3.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)
Matt Cain, SF (9-2, 108.2 IP, 88 K, 2.48 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)
Johnny Cueto, CIN (8-4, 103.2 IP, 78 K, 2.69 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
Josh Johnson, FLA (7-1, 114.1 IP, 97 K, 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
Yovani Gallardo, MIL (8-5, 104.2 IP, 114 K, 2.75 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
Ryan Franklin, STL (19 SV, 31 IP, 22 K, 0.87 ERA, 0.77 WHIP)
Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (21 SV, 39.2 IP, 40 K, 1.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Trevor Hoffman, MIL (18 SV, 23.1 IP, 19 K, 1.93 ERA, 0.94 WHIP)
Heath Bell, SD (22 SV, 33.2 IP, 36 K, 1.34 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)
Rafael Soriano, ATL (7 SV, 6 Holds, 37.2 IP, 49 K, 1.19 ERA, 0.88 WHIP)
Jonathan Broxton, LAD (19 SV, 37.2 IP, 62 K, 2.15 ERA, 0.77 WHIP)
Snubbed: Javier Vazquez, ATL (5-7, 112 IP, 130 K, 3.05 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), Jair Jurrjens, ATL (6-6, 102.1 IP, 74 K, 2.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), Francisco Cordero, CIN (19 SV, 34 IP, 29 K, 1.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), Huston Street, COL, (19 SV, 34 IP, 39 K, 2.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), Johan Santana, NYM (9-6, 102.1 IP, 104 K, 3.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), Ted Lilly, CHC (7-6, 104.2 IP, 88 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) Adam Wainwright, STL (8-5, 114 IP, 101 K, 3.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) , Wandy Rodriguez, HOU (7-6, 114 IP, 101 K, 3.32 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), Chris Carpenter, STL (5-3, 70.2 IP, 53 K, 2.42 ERA, 0.82 WHIP)
Compared to the AL, the NL has a much larger selection of pitching All-Stars. Lincecum should get the start over Haren because of his number of wins and (you know the drill) because the D’Backs are in last place while the Giants lead the wild card. Billingsley and Cain are not far behind. Cueto is the Reds’ representative. Johnson and Gallardo are also deserving and edge out the snubs, led by Vazquez, who loses out due to his unfortunate sub-.500 won-loss record. Also surprising is that Santana couldn’t get it going enough to earn a spot in this crowded group of starters.
The NL relief crop is also outstanding, and the six selected here, Franklin, K-Rod, Bell, Broxton, Soriano, and Hoffman, are a cut above the rest. Cordero is edged out, but he’d arguably be the first reliever selected in the AL. That’s how strong the NL relievers are this year. This could also be the reason that the NL finally breaks the spell and earns its first All-Star game victory in twelve years. Side note: Manuel could potentially select Cordero and Vazquez over Cueto and Soriano – this keeps the Reds’ requirement and keeps the starters and relievers even. But I think Cueto and Soriano are more deserving.
33rd Man Vote:
1) Berkman
2) Howard
3) Helton
4) Upton
5) Pierre
Here’s a breakdown by NL Team:
Philadelphia = Utley, Ibanez
Florida = Ramirez, Johnson
New York = Beltran, Wright, Rodriguez
Atlanta = Soriano, McCann
Washington = Dunn
Milwaukee = Fielder, Hoffman, Gallardo, Braun
St. Louis = Pujols, Franklin, Molina
Cincinnati = Cueto
Chicago = Soto
Houston = Tejada
Pittsburgh = Sanchez
Los Angeles = Billingsley, Broxton, Kemp
San Francisco = Lincecum, Cain, Sandoval
Colorado = Hawpe
San Diego = Gonzalez, Bell
Arizona = Haren, Reynolds
How’s that, Kiper and McShay?
