Friday, March 19th, 2010

The Case of Trey Hillman and the Dead Arm

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Posted by Craig Brown on Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 3:00 pm

I’m going to deviate for a moment from my series on the Pitch Count Warriors, to go on a semi-related rant.

When I began the series, there were three pitchers that fit my criteria (throwing more than 130 pitches in a game.)  I began with Ian Snell and moved to Edwin Jackson.  All that was left was to profile a Roy Halladay start on June 2 and my work would be complete.

Then Royals manager Trey Hillman decided to leave Gil Meche in a game in mid June to throw 132 pitches in an attempt to notch a shutout against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

I’m saving the gory details for the fourth entry in my series, but suffice it to say that Meche struggled in his next two starts immediately following his long outing.  He lasted just 3.1 innings on June 21 and went 5 innings on June 26, allowing 14 hits, 13 runs and four home runs.

Although Meche and team officials insisted the extended outing had nothing to do with his struggles, the Royals began to worry.  His velocity was down in the June 26 start (his average fastball at that point was 93 mph and he was having trouble breaking 90 mph) and as I stated in the previous graph – the opposition was having no trouble putting the bat on the ball.

Word began to filter out of the Royals camp that Meche was suffering from a “dead arm.”  On Sunday, his Wednesday start was uncertain.  He was skipping his usual throwing session that would have come on Sunday (two days following his previous start) and instead would have a bullpen session on Monday.  The purpose of the session wasn’t to get some regular work.  It was to test his arm to see if he was fit enough to make his next start.

On Monday, Meche gave his session a “thumbs up!” and declared himself ready for Wednesday.

In his start against the Twins, Meche struggled with his control (or the home plate umpire struggled with his strike zone.)  Either way, Meche was racking up pitches in a day game in Kansas City.  By the fifth inning, he had walked four and struck out four while throwing 99 pitches.  (Of course, the Royals atrocious defense figures into this story.  A ground ball went hit directly at second baseman Alberto Callaspo went right between his legs.  And right fielder Willie Bloomquist dropped a fly ball in the fifth.  That will elevate a pitch count.)

So the Royals received 99 pitches from a starter who’s start was in jeopardy just two days ago because of a “dead arm.”  Of course, you’d like your starter to go deeper into the game, but 99 pitches is 99 pitches – especially when there are concerns about your health.  Everyone figured Meche’s day was over.

Everyone except Trey Hillman.

For some reason, SABR Trey (so named for his bizarre proclivity to play the percentages, and play them incorrectly) allowed Meche to return to the mound for the start of the sixth inning.  Why?  Meche had already thrown a bunch of pitches and hadn’t been all that effective to begin with.  The game was at a perfect point where Hillman could go to his bullpen.  Instead, he stuck with his starter and two pitches in, Meche served up a double.

Then, with the runner on second, Meche went on a fastball binge.  The next 19 pitches of the inning were fastballs.  When was the last time a starter, with a four pitch repertoire, threw 19 fastballs in a row?  If that’s not a red flag, I don’t know what is.

Oh, did I mention that after the double to start the inning, the Twins did Meche a huge favor by hacking away?  The next two hitters saw a total of four pitches and both made outs.  It looked like Meche (and Hillman) could dodge a bullet but then Meche faltered, walking the fourth hitter of the inning to bring Joe Mauer to the plate.  Maybe now this would be a good time to go to the bullpen.  Meche was at 113 pitches, there were two runners on and the best hitter in the AL was standing at the plate.  (And he was probably thinking fastball!)  The manager emerges from the dugout… and returns without making the move to the bullpen.

Mauer punishes a predictable fastball and lines a single to center, pushing the score to 3-0.

Meche retires Justin Morneau on a deep fly ball to end the inning and finally left the game after throwing 121 pitches.

So the Royals second-best starter, coming off a “dead arm” was left in the game to post his second highest pitch count total of the season.  Meche says he “felt great,” but we’ll see how great he feels later this week and when he makes his next start.  Meche is exactly halfway through a five-year, $55 million deal and is actually a huge reason the Royals have improved their win total over the previous two seasons.  He’s a key guy on this team.  I can’t get over Hillman and his case of managerial malpractice.

It’s a trend that is slowly unfolding in Kansas City.  Royals starters have thrown more than 115 pitches in a start on 11 occasions, the second highest total among teams.  Certainly, part of the reason for this is SABR Trey doesn’t trust his bullpen.  Last year, with Leo Nunez, Ramon Ramirez and Joakim Soria, Hillman found himself with a quality pen.  This year with Nunez and Ramirez gone, the Royals bullpen ERA is 4.35, which is the third worst total in the league.

The Royals are a long, long way from being relevant.  Boneheaded moves from their manager like this will only serve to push them even further away.

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