Buy, Sell or Hold: Troy Tulowitzki

Posted by D.J. Short on Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 5:58 pm

With a solid finish to 2008 (.327/.389/.469 with five homers and 30 RBI after the All-Star break) Troy Tulowitzki reinforced his status as one of the top 10 shortstops in fantasy leagues. Unfortunately he couldn’t shake that nasty “annual fantasy tease” tag in the early going, hitting just .200 in April and .242 in May with just 14 extra-base hits over his first 159 at-bats.

But things changed for Tulo in June, much like they did for the surging Rockies. He suddenly caught fire, hitting .305/.398/.610, while clubbing seven homers (a new career-high for a month) to go along with 15 RBI and 19 runs scored. Finally recovered from a quad injury that grounded him in 2008 (only one stolen base) he also swiped a surprising seven bases, again, a new career-high for any month. It was a ridiculous showing for a player who a lot of owners were willing to give up on for nickels on the dollar. And as we enter July, many might be wondering if now is the time to sell high.

Before hitting accept on that potential trade, first keep in mind that Tulowitzki is a career .299 hitter after the All-Star break, as opposed to a .249 career mark in the first half. It’s a big disparity, but fortunately for fantasy owners, batting average doesn’t tell the whole story with Tulo anymore. His walk rate is currently a very healthy 13.3% — up from a 9.7% career average — he’s now right up there with veterans like Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran. Don’t think this number is skewed by a strong June; he showed growth even during his early season doldrums. Along with being more selective, Tulo is making more contact at pitches in the strike zone than ever before (91.7% as opposed to a 88.5% career average). Both are very promising trends for the second half.

Before selling, owners should also consider how weak the shortstop position has been this season. If you don’t already have Hanley Ramirez, Jason Bartlett, Derek Jeter, Michael Young or perhaps Ben Zobrist (depending on eligibility) chances are you will be relying on rebounds from the likes of Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, J.J. Hardy or Rafael Furcal in the second half — a risky proposition.

Verdict: Solid Hold

If you have a player in mind for “Buy, Sell or Hold,” let me know by emailing short.dj@gmail.com or follow me on Twitter @djshort.