Pitch Count Warrior: Edwin Jackson

Posted by Craig Brown on Tuesday, June 23, 2009 at 10:25 am

Where were we?  Ah, yes… The Pitch Count Kings.  I set out to look at all starters this year who threw 130 or more pitches in a start.  In my first installment, Ian Snell was placed under the microscope.  Today, we turn our attention to the second pitcher to toss more than 130 pitches in a start:  The Detroit Tigers Edwin Jackson.

On May 21, Jackson took the mound in a home start against the Texas Rangers.

8 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 7 SO

It wasn’t the tidiest of performances, but in many ways it was typical Jackson.  Too many base runners and a few hits strung together with some strikeouts sprinkled in between.  In the end, he threw 132 pitches in a 4-3 Tiger win.

I don’t think Tigers manager Jim Leyland set out thinking Jackson would top 130 pitches for the afternoon.  When Jackson took the mound in the top of the eighth protecting a 3-1 lead, he had thrown 105 pitches and was looking strong.  However, Jackson found himself in hot water early.  A walk to David Murphy, followed by a fly out and a double by Hank Blalock put runners at second and third with one down.  At this point, he had thrown 12 pitches in the inning.

Then came a key at bat against Marlon Byrd.  If Jackson failed to retire Byrd, Leyland probably would have come with the hook.  Maybe.  But Byrd not only hit a soft liner for the second out… He did it in the first pitch of his at bat.

Now it seems Jackson is “this close” to escaping.  Yet trouble comes calling once again.  Nelson Cruz clears the bases with a double to close out a four pitch at bat.  Then Chris Davis walks on six pitches before Jackson gets the final out of the inning.  So after he got the second out, Jackson needed an additional 14 pitches to finish the frame.  That brought his total to a career high 132 pitches, breaking his career high of 117 pitches in a start he set just a month earlier.

Jackson has always had a “live” fastball.  According to FanGraphs, his average heater clocks in at 94.4 mph, which makes him the fourth hardest thrower (behind Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Verlander and Josh Johnson) in the game.  Like many others who feature a plus-plus fastball, Jackson has battled control issues throughout his career.  Last season, he walked 3.8 batters per nine.  It was the second consecutive season he cut his walk rate (from 6.2 BB/9 in 2006) but he was still allowing far too many base runners.  His 4.88 FIP helps illustrate the fact

The amazing thing about Jackson’s 132 pitch start was he got stronger as the game progressed, and as he blew past the 100 pitch barrier, kept going.  From Brooks Baseball’s excellent PITCHf/x archives.

He was throwing hard all afternoon against the Rangers, but really took a step forward around his 90th pitch.

While I called his 132 pitch start “typical” as far as quality, that’s a bit unfair.  That would be accurate if he were having a “typical” Edwin Jackson type of year.  However, through his first eight starts, Jackson was having a heckuva season.

52 IP, 43 H, 14 ER, 11 BB, 41 SO, 2.42 ERA

The 4:1 K:BB ratio is obviously outstanding.  So was his .222 opponent’s batting average.  The only quibble anyone can have about Jackson’s early season performance is his lack of economy of pitches.  In these appearances he averaged 101 pitches, yet lasted only about six innings per start.

The good news is, in the five starts since his extended outing, Jackson has been just as unhittable.  It’s a good thing, because his walk rate has increased.

34.1 IP, 25 H, 8 ER, 9 BB, 24 SO, 2.10 ERA

The jump in walks from 1.9 BB/9 before his 132 pitch start to 2.4 BB/9 after certainly isn’t a deal breaker.  Not if he’s holding opponents to a .205 batting average.  Besides, he allowed just a single walk in each of his three starts following May 21.  His rate bumped up after a five inning, four walk start on June 11.  It should be noted that in the five starts since May 21, Jackson is again averaging 100 pitches, but is now going deeper into games. (He threw the second complete game of his career back on June 6.)

Also, it should be noted that his velocity has been rock steady since his long outing.  In that game, his average fastball was clocked at 94.9 mph.  In his next start on May 26, his average fastball was 94.6 mph and in his most recent start on June 17, he was again throwing 94.6 mph.

Jackson is having an excellent season… One that has helped the Tigers to an early lead in the AL Central.  Fans can breath a sigh of relief that his long outing at the end of May hasn’t seemed to have a negative effect.  Now they can shift their attention to hoping he can maintain his current level.