Posted by Michael Street on Tuesday, June 23, 2009 at 9:46 pm

One of my Top Five Asian baseball stories this year was about whether Daisuke Matsuzaka would continue to trend downwards this year, or whether he’d right the ship and stop nibbling around the plate.

Well, he not only didn’t right the ship, he’s come near to sinking it. After an awful start to the year (1-5, 8.23 ERA, 2.20 WHIP), Boston finally cried “Uncle!” and yanked him from the rotation straight to the DL.

And from the way that manager Terry Francona was talking about it, he won’t be coming back to either spot for some time.

What happened to the $100M Japanese import? How did he fall so far, so fast? And is the WBC to blame, as Francona and the Red Sox are saying?

Well, some of the downward trends started last season. His primary stats—those that appear in fantasy leagues and baseball cards—improved from 2007, superficially suggesting improvement:

2007: 15-12, 4.40 ERA

2008: 18-3, 2.90 ERA

Those stats were enough to grab the attention of sportswriters, as he ranked fourth in Cy Young voting. But a quick peek behind those numbers shows some discouraging trends:

2007:  8.8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.51 K/BB

2008: 8.3 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 1.64 K/BB

Obviously, when your walks climb and your strikeouts fall, your control (K/BB) will, too. And that’s what Dice-K did. Where he did improve—and where those diminished ERA numbers came from—was in hits and home runs.

2007: 1.1 HR/9, 8.4H/9

2008: 0.6 HR/9, 6.9 H/9 (led all of MLB in this category)

In other words, though he was showing diminished control and strikeout ability, Dice-K seemed to be getting lucky. That his BABIP dropped from .301 to .260 would further suggest this was true.

Going into this year, then, he offered a mixed bag of possibilities, though most observers were pessimistic that he’d continue his string of luck.

And, of course, he started this year by pitching in the World Baseball Classic, training much more with Team Japan than with the Red Sox. This is significant because Japanese teams and players have a much different work ethic than their American counterparts, even during the season.

With six-man rotations, NPB (Japanese league) teams think nothing of using a starter as a reliever on his off-days, or even just throwing a whole mess of pitches in the bullpen between starts, something almost unthinkable for MLB teams. Japanese conditioning in general is famous for fatigue-inducing exercises like the 1000-fungo drill, though fewer teams abuse their players these days with this old-school routine.

When he arrived at MLB, Dice-K was known for his punishing workouts and his refusal to ice his arm after a start. He thought nothing of throwing over the hallowed 100-pitch limit, having famously thrown 250 pitches in a 17-inning complete game as a high-school ace, then appearing as a reliever the next day.

Last year, that masochistic style led to a 24-day stint on the DL (for a strained right rotator cuff in his shoulder) and a reduction in that workout routine. With Team Japan, however, it’s likely he went back to old habits, or so Boston assumes.

For understandable reasons,  MLB teams don’t like it when their players are in the hands of other managers and trainers, especially during the tender time of spring training. (Witness the panic of the Cleveland Indians when Shin-Soo Choo complained of elbow pain during his workouts with Team Korea.)

Add to this Dice-K’s workload with Team Japan when the WBC began: in three starts against Korea, the US and Cuba (three formidable opponents), Matsuzaka threw 249 pitches in just 14.2 IP, more than 17 pitches per inning. That’s a lot, but it’s also consistent with his totals from his first two years in MLB (17.3 P/IP in 2008, 17.0 in 2007).

Still, those pitches were in high-leverage situations, against very good teams, and very early in his spring training regime. So when he came out of the chute looking weak, it was easy to point the finger at the WBC and blame it for his struggles.

And looking at his numbers this year, it’s clear something is way off base. Some of it could be luck, but the rest is just bad pitching.

His K/9 rebounded to 8.7 in 2009, and his walks dropped a bit to 4.6 BB/9 (which means his K/BB is a more-palatable 1.89), but his other numbers show serious slippage. His H/9 shot back to 15.2, and his HR/9 soared to 2.1.

Together, the numbers tell a simple story. He’s not walking as many batters because he’s been leaving the ball in the strike zone. That tendency is supported by the rise of some other disturbing ratios.

After a line drive percentage of around 18% in his first two years, it leapt to 26% this year. And his HR/FB percentage went from 11.7% in 2007 to 7.5% in 2008—to 17.5% in 2009. While HR/FB is intended to show luck (pitchers can’t always control whether a fly ball gets blown out of the park), it can also show that Dice-K is getting hit hard.

Interestingly, his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) ERA is 5.72, as compared to his actual ERA of 8.23. FIP is intended to measure those things a pitcher can control, and a deficit like this sometimes indicates poor defense. But it can also get bloated by high line drive percentages (line drives are much harder to field for outs) or by high HR totals. And, as we’ve seen, both rates have gone sky-high this year.

These stats support the fact that he’s leaving pitches in the zone and getting hammered for it. Dice-K has had a reputation as a nibbler, someone who would rather see high pitch counts than high hit totals; in his first two years, his coaches wanted him to throw more strikes. He’s thrown strikes this year, and in spades, and the results have been awful.

Is this the fault of the WBC? Well, his recent MRI showed no structural damage, and Dice-K has continued to insist that he doesn’t feel injured, but this is typical of stoic Japanese players, and he has admitted he doesn’t feel quite right. And given the price tag associated with Dice-K, Boston would rather blame it on Team Japan than their own handling of him.

But given the abuse he’s put on his shoulder throughout his career, this may just be all those high pitch counts coming home to roost. As a rule, Japanese pitchers who make the leap from a career in NPB to MLB don’t have long careers, and don’t succeed as starters. (Hideo Nomo, the longest-lived import, only pitched five seasons in Japan).

This fact can have a lot of causes, and one of them is the heavy workload that NPB pitchers have. Matsuzaka came to MLB with 1402 IP on his arm, not including all those innings he pitched as a high-schooler. Add that to the 400+ IP he’s had thus far, and that’s a lot of innings on a 28-year-old’s arm. (CC Sabathia, often cited as a victim of pitcher abuse, has logged 1761 IP, and he’s just two months younger than Dice-K).

Whether it’s due to WBC, NPB, Dice-K’s injury could have long-term effects on at least two fronts, depending on when and how well he returns.

If he recovers relatively quickly, it could merely mean that WBC guidelines for pitcher usage are changed, or that fewer top-line players will be allowed to play in the tournament. This won’t have any immediate impact, as the next WBC is in 2012, so there’s plenty of time to negotiate these things (or forget the effects on players like Dice-K).

But if he never recovers to his old self, is relegated to the bullpen, or otherwise curtails his career, it will not only affect the parameters of the WBC, it could affect US-Japan baseball trade relations.

If this happens, no player will ever receive a deal as big as Dice-K’s again, and MLB teams may look either towards drafting players who have never thrown an inning in NPB (like Junichi Tazawa) or paying massive posting fees for much younger players. Career pitchers who finish their nine-year free-agency requirement in Japan will have a much tougher time getting a longer deal, and could end up only as relievers.

Whatever happens, this injury is much bigger than just Boston or even Team Japan and the WBC. If Hideo Nomo or Ichiro Suzuki didn’t have their amazingly long careers, Dice-K would never have been signed to such a big contract (if at all).

And if Dice-K never recovers, we may have already seen the last triple-digit signings from NPB.