Posted by Mat Kovach on Saturday, June 20, 2009 at 3:14 pm

When the Nationals took Steve Strasburg with the first overall pick for the MLB’s Draft, they were tempting fate.  Since the drafted started in 1965, 13 pitchers were taken as the first overall pick on the draft. Zero have won Cy Young awards, three made it to an All-Star game and their highest win total is 161. Here are the current totals (through the end of 2008) for the first overall hurlers:

The jury is still out with Price and Hochevar.  They are still in the development stages of their career so I will leave them out of the conversation for now.

One could make a respectable 13 man pitching staff with the pitchers above, but not a great staff.  Contrast this list to the last 13 quarterbacks taken as the first overall pick NFL’s draft.

The contrast is striking.  Let’s take a look at our First Overall Hurlers and try to understand what happen.

“Dancing Monkey Syndrome”
David Clyde, LHP, 1973, Texas Rangers.

David Clyde is a case of child abuse.  In 1973, David posted amazing numbers in high school.  He used 14 shutouts to post a 18-0 record, allowing three earned runs the entire year.  Unfortunately for him, the Texas Rangers owned the first pick in the draft.  He signed and pitched in the big leagues 19 days after his high school graduation. Rangers owner Bob Short turned David Clyde into his personal dancing monkey to increase the gate. Despite the enormous pressure, Clyde pitched well in his 18 starts in 1973, ending with a 4-8 record and a 5.01 ERA in 93.1 innings. He was good, but clearly overmatched. The eighteen year old also had to deal with resentment in the locker room and temptation outside it.  His career, in part, was affected by late night drinking and partying. 1974 did not fare better for Clyde, he pitched in 28 games, completing four of them, with a 3-9 record, 117 innings pitched and a 4.38 ERA.  Again overmatched, Bob Short seen how Clyde’s home starts were increasing the gate.  When the Rangers replaced manager Whitey Herzog with Billy Martin, Martin insisted on sending Clyde to the minors.  When Short refused, Martin sat Clyde on the bench for 30 days.  During that time, Clyde never even warmed.  In 1976, Clyde finally was sent to the minors after one start in the majors, but only because he had developed arm troubles. Clyde worked through arm problems and stayed in minor leagues,  until  Texas traded hime to the Indians (Note, this becomes a theme) before the start of the 1978 season.  He lasted 1 ½ years in the Indians starting rotation, before being send back down to the minors.  While he tried in 1980 and 1981 restart his career in Texas and Houston, he never pitched again. Could David Clyde have been a great pitcher? An eighteen-year-old left-hander that was striking out 7.1 batters per nine innings? With proper development in the minors, I think David Clyde would have been the best on this list and had a long successful major league career.

“What were they thinking?”
Matt Anderson, 1997, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Bryan Bullington, 2002, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Bryan Bullington was a sign-ability pick by the Pirates. While Bullington put up good numbers in college, he was 11-3 with a 2.86 ERA, and in 104 innings, walking 18 while striking out 139, it was the Mid Atlantic Conference.  He might have been the best college pitcher in a weak draft, plenty of more talent was available: if you wanted to pay for it.  He was good, but with a limited ceiling.  He lost a year to a shoulder injury, was released by the Pirates, spent time with the Indians in 2008 and currently is with the Blue Jays. This was just a bad pick based on the ability to sign the player, not based on the ability of the player.

Matt Anderson, the lone college reliever on the list, had a 100MPH+ fastball.  Somebody throwing that fast in college should be getting people out. In the majors, Anderson’s lack of control was obvious but he did get 22 saves in 2001. Shoulder problems started in 2002, including a torn muscle when he threw an octopus at a Detroit Red Wings game.  While still in 2008 he could still throw the ball 99 MPH, he didn’t miss bats all that often.  The problem with Anderson was that, well, relief pitching is rarely a consistent.  A young reliever with limited secondary stuff and an issue throwing strikes will become hittable no matter how fast he can throw the ball. Sign-ability was an issue also.  The number 2 pick in this draft was the Phillies selecting J.D. Drew.

Both these guys were just not worth the first overall pick and the decision to draft them this high was based more on money.

“When you get in a fight with a drunk you don’t hit him with your pitching hand.”
Brien Taylor, 1991, LHP, New York Yankees.

Young Brien Taylor was throwing 98 MPH in high school and the Yankees drafted him since they had the resources to meet Taylor’s finical demands.  Where the Yankees failed was to not giving him a Crash Davis to keep him out of a bar fight in 1993.  There are many different versions of the story, but the important part was that Taylor’s shoulder was injured, ‘the worst anybody had ever seen.’.  Walks were an issue with Taylor in the minors and this injury tapped his control even more and striped him of his speed and power.  Taylor never mad it past Double A ball, was released by the Yankees in 1998. He tried a short-lived comeback in 2000 with …. the Cleveland Indians.  Taylor had the physical makings of good pitcher, but was derailed by a lack of maturity.  Even without the injury, there is a major question if Taylor had the mental makeup to be a Yankee ace.

“Is it suppose to hurt when I do this?”

Kris Benson, 1996, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Note: when googling Kris Benson, the first suggestion from Google is ‘Kris Benson and Wife’.

Benson had a more conventional trip to the majors.  After being drafted out of Clemsem, he spent 1997-1998 moving up through the Pirates minor league system, moving from 128 .0 innings pitched to 156.0 innings pitched.  He was not spectacular, but he wasn’t awful.  In 1999, at the age of 24, he made 31 starts and finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting. He went 11-14 with a 4.07 ERA, two complete games while logging 196.2 innings.  Improving in 2000, he was 10-12, a 3.85 ERA, another two complete games (one being a shutout) and 217.2 innings.  His inning progression was seemingly safe and he was improving until 2001, when he had shoulder surgery.  He was able to get back to normal self by 2004, enabling the Pirates to trade him the Mets.  He just never got better than his 1999 and 2000 years.  The Mets traded him to the Orioles before the 2006 season. In 2007, rotator-cuff surgery stole another year from him and the Orioles let him go. He spent 2008 in the Phillies system and hooked on with the Rangers this year. Benson had promise, until his shoulder gave out on him.

Paul Wilson, 1994, RHP, New York Mets
Part of the infamous ‘Generation K’ for the Mets, which included Jason Isringhausen and Bill Pulsipher, he followed the same pattern.  Injuries, Injuries, Injuries.  It seems Paul Wilson biggest problem was being in a Mets organization that couldn’t keep pitchers healthy. He pitched 143 innings in college ball in 1994 and 37 innings in the Mets minor league system that same year.  He was terrible, going 0-7 with a 4.56 ERA, but was striking out about a batter an inning. He improved in his 186 innings between AA and AAA in 1995, posting a 2.41 ERA and still striking about a batter an inning. In 1996, he made it to the bigs.  He hurt his shoulder at the beginning of the year, landing on the DL and missing most of June.  It was also stated that he had a lifelong issue with his right kneecap and he might have to consider using a brace.  He did manage 149.0 innings in 1996 during his 26 starts. He compiled one complete game, a 5.38 ERA and a 5-12 record.  Oh, and arthroscopic surgery on to repair torn lumbar in his shoulder in November. He would not make it back to the bigs in a Mets uniform.  Paul came back from the shoulder surgery, but then while playing in Winter Ball in 1997, he started to experience elbow problems and was shutdown.  The shoulder kept him out until the last part of 1998, where he pitched well in the minors.  In 1999, the elbow needed ligament reconstruction. (Yea, it looks like he had elbow and shoulder problem at the same time). He was traded to Tampa Bay midseason in 2000 and while only putting in 51.0 innings, had decent numbers. His best year was 2006 with the Reds, where he had an 11-6 record and a 4.36 ERA. But his control and speed was never the same after his injuries. The Reds released him in 2007, when he was recovering from yet another shoulder surgery. Paul Wilson was a victim of a Mets organization that had real trouble keeping pitchers healthy.

Ben McDonald, 1989, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Ben was a time bomb waiting to explode after college.  He was rode hard in college and during his short career, he was on the disabled list six times, including three rotator-cuff surgeries.  In 1989, he pitched for LSU in the NCAA World Series, signing with the Orioles late, logging two games in the minors and six in the majors. He slowly started to come around in 1990 and 1991, but his shoulder was always a concern. He was pitching well in 1994 until the strike hit. When healthy McDonald was turning into a front of the order starter that could give eat up innings and give you a slightly better than league average ERA.  But he was always derailed by injuries.  Nowadays, he would probably have been turned into a closer. After an arbitration hearing after the 1995, the price McDonald was too high (with the injury concerns) for the Orioles and he was granted free agency.  He signed with the Brewers for the 1996 season. He went 12-10 with the Brewers logging 221.1 innings with a 3.90 ERA. Shoulder problems affected him in 1997 and after being traded to the Cleveland Indians (yes, them again), he had his last shoulder surgery and did not play again. Ben McDonald simply couldn’t stay healthy.

“We can’t all be giants”
Andy Benes, 1988, RHP, San Diego Padres
Tim Belcher, 1983, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Mike Moore, 1981, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Floyd Bannister, 1976, LHP, Houston Astros

Note:  Like John Elway, Belcher did not sign with the team that drafted him.  He was drafted by the Twins, refused to sign and was selected in the supplemental draft by the Yankees.  Before he could sign with the Yankees, the A’s selected him the compensation pool.  Now, he works in the Indians organization.

This is the best of the bunch and there are some respectable pitchers there. All but Belcher appeared in an All-Star Game. All of them pitched at least once in the postseason, with Belcher and Moore pitching in the World Series. They lasted between 14 and 15 seasons. Only Bannister missed an entire season because of injury. An average season for them would give you a .500 season, with around 35 starts, 200+ innings and a league average ERA.  Did they live up first overall billing, perhaps not.  They became a rare bird, solid dependable starters, took the ball when called on, and in a few seasons during their careers they were really good.

What does these mean for Strasburg, Price, and Hochevar? Nothing that it means for any other pitcher drafted.  Developing pitching is hard.  Becoming a good pitcher is hard.  Becoming a great pitcher is even harder.  You need a combination of skill, talent, maturity, luck, and to be in an organization that will help you succeed. Do I think we’ll see a pitcher treated like David Clyde, no.  Do I think another Paul Wilson is possible?  I think it is less likely than it was 10 years ago.

In the first round of the 2009 MLB draft, 16 pitchers were taken in.  There are many pitchers taken each year.  There are a few that will be great.  Looking at these first overall hurlers just shows that, of those 16 pitchers, if one turns into a solid starter then that is impressive.

What we can really see here is that we can’t do an apples to apples comparisons between sports drafts. There needs to be a way to breakdown the drafts and take into effect the different ways the drafts work in each sports.