Posted by Michael Street on Tuesday, June 16, 2009 at 11:24 pm

Three True Outcomes (TTO) hitters are, depending on your perspective, a statistical plaything or an expression of a valuable power-hitting strategy. The TTOs—walks, strikeouts, and home runs—are the only outcomes of an at-bat that don’t involve the defense.

In other words, they’re the cleanest way we can quantify the duel between pitcher and batter. It’s a more effective tool in the measurement of pitchers, but it tells us interesting things about batters, too.

The league TTO average for 2009 is 29%, and the TTO masters typically have a percentage at or near 50%.

Is Cleveland’s Shin-Soo Choo nearing that territory?

In this year’s WBC, Choo’s odd .188/.409/.563 line reflected the fact that, in 16 ABs, he collected 3 BBs, 5 Ks, and 3 hits, two of them home runs in the final two games. That gave him a TTO% of 52.6.

The WBC, of course, isn’t the same as MLB, and Choo’s odd performance might have been more a product of small sample space—or poor quality opposition—than anything else. After all, Choo spent 7 seasons in the minors, collecting a modest TTO% of 31.8%

In his breakout 2008 campaign, Choo’s final line was .309/.397/.549, a very pretty one that included 14 HRs, 44 BBs and 78 Ks in 370 PAs. That raised his TTO% to 36.7.

So far this year, Choo has put up a .291/.404/.457 line. In 280 PAs, he’s got 40 BBs and 59 Ks, both on a pace to eclipse last year’s ratios. And among his 67 H are 9 doubles, 1 triple, and 9 HRs. His TTO% has risen to 38.5.

He’s actually dipped in some power ratios from last year, coverting fewer fly balls to HRs (10.3% vs. 11.4% in 2008), hitting fewer extra base hits (6.8% vs. 12.2%), and going longer between home runs (25.6 AB/HR vs. 22.6).

One interesting change is to see that he’s got the same number of doubles as home runs, a trend that’s only increased of late.

Since May 15, he’s appeared at the plate 128 times, collecting 32 hits, 29 Ks and 16 BBs. Of those 32 Hs, 6 went for extra bases, and 5 of those XBHs were HRs. It’s not often that a guy with a modest SLG of .457 collects as many (or more) homers as doubles. That’s what you expect from a TTO guy (but more on that in a moment).

Overall, another TTO ratio to keep an eye on is his BB%, probably his greatest area of growth this season. He’s gone from about 10% in 2006 and 2007 to 11.9% in 2008 and 14.3% in 2009. This is not out of line for a guy who totaled 11.5 BB% in the minors, though Fangraphs shows that BB% dropping as this season progresses.

What’s kept his OBP steady (it’s currently 8th in the AL) is his K%, which Fangraphs also shows to be on the rise, though he’s maintained the 21.1% he had from last year. Still, that’s the third component of TTO, and that’s coming up, too.

So is Choo becoming a TTO player?

Pushing 40% doesn’t put him in the class of the modern TTO masters. This year’s TTO leaders include:

• Carlos Pena (53% in 2009, 45% career)
• Mark Reynolds (52% in 2009, 48% career)
• Adam Dunn (50% in 2009, 49% career)
• Russell Branyan (45% in 2009, 52% career)
• Ryan Howard (44% in 2009, 49% career)
• Prince Fielder (44% in 2009, 37% career)
• Jack Cust (40.5% in 2009, 54% career)

Only Cust—who’s clearly having an off-year so far—is close to Choo, percentage-wise. What’s more interesting, however, is to compare these players’ 2B to HR. In almost every case, they’re hitting more homers than doubles.

• Adam Dunn: 2.13 HR/2B in 2009, and 1.41 HR/2B career.
• Carlos Pena: 1.67 HR/2B in 2009, and 1.31 HR/2B career.
• Jack Cust: 1.22 HR/2B in 2009, and 1.36 HR/2B career.
• Ryan Howard: 1.19 HR/2B in 2009, and 1.70 HR/2B career.
• Prince Fielder: 1.14 HR/2B in 2009, and 1.10 HR/2B career.
• Mark Reynolds: 1.13 HR/2B in 2009, 0.98 HR/2B career.
• Russell Branyan: 1.07 HR/2B in 2009, and 1.35 HR/2B career.

Shin-Soo Choo’s 1.00 HR/2B in 2009 goes up against his 0.44 HR/2B in his career, a clear sign that he’s changed his hitting style—at least so far.

What Choo doesn’t have in common with all these TTO hitters is his speed. Except for Reynolds, the other TTO masters have doubles as a result of hard smashes that don’t quite have enough carry to get over the fence. Choo’s going to get doubles on liners to the gap or shots down the line.

The third thing we learn from those marvelous Fangraphs is that his FB% is dropping while his GB% is rising. This is a bit surprising, given his recent homerrific tendencies, but if that trend contines, he’s going to see more doubles and fewer home runs, normalizing the odd HR/2B ratios we’ve seen so far.

Given his increased walk percentage, along with his climbing K rate, his TTO status is unlikely to change. He’s likely to continue that TTO ratio in the high 30s, which isn’t really good news for Indians fans.

Notice again that all those TTO masters are sluggers. While Choo can certainly show some pop now and again, he’s not in the same class as those hitters. If there’s any doubt, look at Choo’s .457 SLG. On that TTO-master list, only Cust (.233/.326/.433) has a SLG at that level in 2009, and only Dunn ever finished a 500+ PA season with a SLG in that neighborhood (in 2002, his first full season in the bigs).

So while it’s nice to see Choo cranking dingers now and again, it’s really not the best game plan for him to depend on them. The walks are great, but without the game-changing power of the TTO masters, those strikeouts aren’t worth it.

He’s definitely the best example of that tendency among the new crop of Asian hitters (by comparison, Ichiro’s TTO% is 16 and Hideki Matsui is 27). But unless he suddenly starts hitting homers like Adam Dunn or Ryan Howard, this isn’t a career trend we want to see continue.