Posted by Matthew Whipps on Sunday, June 14, 2009 at 10:02 am

It wasn’t too long ago that all we heard was “Joba, Joba, Joba.” You couldn’t turn on ESPN without them drooling over the thick-bodied young righty and how good he was and how much better he was going to be. Then a funny thing happened. Joba stopped being Joba.

Before we dive into looking at what is wrong with Joba Chamberlain, let’s take a look at my scouting report I wrote on him in the spring of 2008:

Pitch Repertoire

• Fastball: Chamberlain is a power pitcher with a big frame whose fastball sits in the mid to upper-90’s and occasionally hits triple digits. He also has very good control of his fastball and is able to locate it anywhere in the zone. This also helps set up his slew of secondary pitches.

• Change-up: Chamberlain has been working on improving his change-up and it is getting better with time. As of now it is sitting in the low-80’s and is lacking enough movement to make it a stand out pitch. It is effective enough of a pitch to incorporate into his game plan but it will take more work to be a solid major league pitch.

• Curveball: Chamberlain doesn’t use his curve too much for a couple of reasons. For one it’s not nearly as good as his fastball or slider which he predominantly uses coming out of the bullpen. Secondly it just isn’t that effective of a pitch for him yet as he doesn’t have reliable control over it. It is more of a slow looping curve that generally sits between 79-82 mph. This approach is ok during his time in the bullpen when a dominating fastball and hard slider will work great, but he may want to fine tune it a little more before joining the Yankees rotation.

• Slider: Chamberlain’s other dominating pitch is his plus slider. It sits in the neighborhood of 85-89 mph and is used just as much (and effectively) as his fastball. As a power pitcher, Chamberlain uses his hard slider as his strikeout pitch as he keeps it low in the zone and constantly over matches hitters as they swing and miss. When he has it working it is a simply devastating pitch that even if you know it is coming is almost impossible to hit.

Pitcher’s Makeup

• Delivery: Chamberlain grades very high when it comes to his delivery despite the fact that it at times can seem a bit violent. But anytime you have a pitcher trying to hit triple digits on the gun you are going to see some sort of effort put into it. Chamberlain’s strong frame and powerful legs are used very prevalently in his delivery which is where he generates his dominating stuff.

• Mechanics: While Chamberlain has a very good delivery, he does have a little room for improvement in his mechanics. The real test will be when he moves from the bullpen to the rotation and has to go 6 or 7 innings versus one or two.

• Big Game Factor: Chamberlain is perfect to pitch in a big time city like New York for a big time team like the Yankees. It has been said numerous times that he has ice water running through his veins and has shown it coming down the stretch run last season.

As you can see he has all the makings to be a true stud pitcher for the Yankees. So now let’s take a look at a few of the signs (other than horrible stat lines) that Chamberlain just hasn’t been the same pitcher he once was. For starters, Chamberlain’s once electric fastball that consistently was hitting 97 mph and above is now lucky to reach 93 mph. Take a look at the two PitchFX graphs courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net.

July 25, 2008

June 12, 2009

The first chart is against the Red Sox from July 25 of last year. As you can see his fastball was sizzling throughout a game in which he went seven innings, gave up zero runs, three hits and struck out nine. But then when you compare it to his last start against the Mets in which he threw 100 pitches through only four innings of work, you can see he wasn’t in the upper 90’s, but rather in the low 90’s. This also made his slider less effective as the difference in velocity wasn’t there as it once was.

Speaking of Chamberlain’s slider, that too has been a huge issue for him. Once his unhittable out pitch, it has now become flat and much more ineffective. Take a look at the PitchFX graphs from the same games and see how they compare.

July 25, 2008

June 12, 2009

Look what a huge difference there is in the vertical movement of his slider. Last season the drop was sudden and severe. This season is sort of lazily hangs there with no real bite. Up until this season his slider was considered a “plus-plus” pitch which made him incredibly dominant when combined with his upper 90’s heat. But with neither one of those pitches to reach back for when he needs it, it’s no wonder he’s struggling so much to pitch deep into games.

Now we know what the issues are but we still don’t know why. There’s no logical reason a 22-year old stud should all of a sudden lose his velocity that much and forget how to throw his devastating slider. This leads me to believe one of two things. Either it’s a.) he’s injured or b.) it’s his mechanics.

I’ll scrap the injury part right away because there is no way the Yankees would be trotting out the man who was anointed their future savior if he was injured. Especially the way they keep him on such a short leash with pitch counts. This option just doesn’t make sense.

I have spent a lot of time scouting and analyzing Chamberlain the past couple of seasons. My initial analysis of Chamberlain this past spring and early on in the year is that he wasn’t pitching the same as he did in the past. He is a mess right now with his delivery. Here’s what I have most notably seen:

• He isn’t tucking his front shoulder in causing his shoulder to fly open.

• That in turn is messing up his arm action which hasn’t been consistent all season.

• When he rears back to throw his slider his arm is trailing behind him too much which is why his slider isn’t coming out of his hand properly and generating as much spin causing it to be flat.

• Then to finish things off he isn’t landing with ease anymore as he plants his foot. His leg is locking up as he lands causing his body to not give a full follow through.

Those are the main pieces as to why his mechanics are currently messed up. Now these things aren’t happening consistently with every single pitch, but it is happening enough to where it is severely affecting his performance.

The Yankees how have a huge dilemma on their hands. They have a pitcher who is lucky to give them 5 or 6 innings each time he takes the mound as a starter (and still hits the 100 pitch mark). This isn’t just inconvenient as a “superstar” pitcher, it also kills their bullpen which has enough problems as it is.

Based on all of this, I’d say the Yankees have no option but to put Joba back in the bullpen. It has been the only place he has consistently been effective and he seems to be so much happier out there. New York needs that intensity back. They need the “Joba Rules” back. Maybe, just maybe, a return to the bullpen is just what he needs to get himself back on track. If Joba can’t find his velocity he is in some pretty big trouble as he doesn’t have the accuracy to be a control pitcher. He needs the gas and the hard slider in order to be an effective major league pitcher.

And in New York who knows how long his leash will be before they move onto someone else.

If you would like to contact Baseball Daily Digest writer Matthew Whipps, creator of The Diamond Cutter and the new Minnesota Sports Guys, you can reach him via email at whipps15@gmail.com.