The Wright Way

Posted by Matthew Whipps on Friday, June 12, 2009 at 1:09 pm

Before we begin, I just wanted to let everyone know that David Wright is not David Ortiz. You can all slowly back away from the ledge.

In fact, the only thing the two of them have in common right now is that both have the same first name. That’s it. So lumping the two of them together in the same breath when discussing baseball’s underperformers is not only ridiculous, it’s asinine.

If you look closely they are both having completely different problems – both in nature and severity – and should not be assessed or analyzed the same. Ortiz is just a wreck all the way around in pretty much every facet of his game. Wright’s main issue is his home run power has mysteriously disappeared. Two totally different issues. So what is going on with Wright this season?

Putting his home run totals aside, in some areas Wright has had a pretty productive season to this point. If you look at his stat line of .362/.458/.526 it is above his career line of .313/.394/.532 which would lead you to believe everything is hunky-dory. Well yes, when looking at these cosmetic stats, he is having a very strong season at the dish. However if you break these down a little you will see some abnormalities:

• For starters, Wright is hitting .362 on the season which puts him amongst the league leaders. But looking closely, his BABIP is .474 which leads all of baseball and is a ridiculously high number that is virtually impossible for him to sustain. This means we will see Wright come back down towards reality eventually as he regresses back towards the mean. He also has a 28% LD% which is another very high number and we should see him drop down more towards his career mark of 23%. But one last number of his that if he can adjust to his career mark will help keep his average up is his atrocious K% which is at a career worst 22.1% which he has been lowering quite a bit the past few weeks (it was at 27.4% during the first week of June).

• His OBP is .458, again a lot higher than his career mark of .394. This is in large part attributed to both his high BABIP as well as a BB% of 15.0% which again is above his career mark of 11.5%. If he can continue to keep his walk totals high, I would expect him to be about .400 on his OBP at the end of the year which is about right and still very strong.

• Slugging is another funny stat for Wright. Currently he is slugging .526 which is just off his career .532 number and this is with only four homers on the season. Plus it’s no wonder his home run total is low as he only has a 4.3% HR/FB mark which is very far off from his career 10.1%. But then if you look closer he has an ISO of only .164 compared to the .222 and .232 he’s had the past two seasons. So while the home runs aren’t there, he is keeping his career slugging on course despite the lack of ISO.

After looking at all these ups and downs and strange numbers Wright is putting up, I think things will even out to put him at a line very similar to what is expected of him. I’d say he can end up with a solid line of .340/.410/.530 which would be a fantastic season for a normal player. The problem is David Wright isn’t in the “normal” category. He is an elite major league baseball player.

What is keeping Wright from his elite status is his home run power which has seemingly vanished. Many are wondering if he will ever find his power again. I personally don’t think David Wright is washed up and has lost all his power at the ripe old age of 26 like some people are claiming. Of course as I’ve said before, I’m a realist and don’t like jumping to conclusions.

So what is Wright’s deal? Where are the home runs? Many are quick to point their fingers at the Mets’ new home, Citi Field. Sure the new stadium is big and has been designed to be more of a pitcher’s park, but you can’t use this as the main reason. There is no doubt that he has hit better on the road this season, but it’s not like he has been mashing homers away from Citi. Here’s his breakdown between home and road:

• Home: 123 PA, .312/.390/.486, 3 HR, .443 BABIP
• Road: 130 PA, .413/.523/.567, 1 HR, .500 BABIP

Funny thing is he’s hit more homers at the stadium that everyone is saying is zapping his power than he has hit away from it. So we can’t really blame Citi Field for taking away all his homers. Again we have to look back to his ratios. While he is still hitting the ball hard with a 28% LD% and helping keep up his average and on base percentage, his HR/FB rate is a putrid 4.3%. And it’s not as if he’s not hitting fly balls at all as his GB/FB rate is exactly the same as last season at 0.58.

Basically Wright is just not hitting homers right now, plain and simple. His fly balls aren’t leaving the yard because he’s not hitting them far enough. He’s hitting line drives right now at a better clip than ever in his career which is a good thing. People just need to leave Wright alone and let him do his thing. His power will come back eventually (remember 2007 when he didn’t have more than four homers until after May 18 and still finished with 30 homers?). He’s still having a very good year at the plate (minus the power) and doesn’t need to be ripped as he has been.

Besides Mets fans, be thankful your superstar hasn’t dried up like fans in Boston have had to endure. Wright will right eventually. Just have some patience.

If you would like to contact Matthew Whipps, creator of diamondcutterbaseball.com, you can reach him via email at whipps15@gmail.com.