Posted by Brian Joseph on Thursday, June 11, 2009 at 9:01 pm

In a given baseball season, I’ll have about 30 to 40 whims of inspiration to play with statistics in order to satisfy some silly theory I have. Occasionally, I’ll share my flawed logic and statistical reasoning for the theory with a few people I talk to on a frequent basis. Typically, the whimsy ends up in an Excel spreadsheet on my laptop that I look at a year later and sometimes wonder why I didn’t shout that from the roof tops… and more times than not, use it as a reminder why I’m slow to articulate my “findings”. On the rare occasion, I’ll go as far as to actually write something about it.

Today is one of those days.

Whether it is trade deadline rumors, fantasy baseball or just the general fan mentality, it’s not unusual for discussing this year’s “nots” and whether they will continue putting their team (real or fantasy) through the pain of watching them be unsuccessful or can the struggling turn things around?

The most common use of BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) that I’ve seen is to spot fluky pitching seasons. Instead of looking at pitchers in the off-season, I thought it would be fun to look at this year’s BABIP numbers in relation to hitter’s LD% and also in relation to their LD%, GB% and FB%.

The theory here is that players whose BABIP do not line up with their LD% are getting a little unlucky the first third of the season and should see a rebound. The second comparison is similar to the BABIP/LD% comparison but estimates what their BABIP should be based on the % of hits that are line drives, ground balls and fly balls.

The numbers were “crunched” for statistics on players who qualified for the FanGraphs leaderboards through June 9th. Of the 170-plus players on the list, the two comparisons revealed a bottom 10. Eight of the 10 names were the same on both lists.

It’ll be interesting to see if these players see BABIP improvement from June 10th on and if that equates into better numbers although I would never guarantee it. Nor will I be able to respond with the arrogance and pig-headed snarkiness necessary to make me truly respected as a stat geek. I’ll leave that to the experts.

Instead, I’m just a guy playing with numbers in hopes of spotting a few players who might rebound in the second and third third of the season. Here’s the lists:

List #1: BABIP – (LD% + 11%)

Sometimes I like my numbers quick and dirty… and this one fits perfectly into that description. It isn’t very complicated, of course. (Sorry, no square roots or binomial distributions here.) The theory is that LD% + 11 (sometimes 12) percent should line up somewhat with a player’s BABIP. The above list are the 10 cases where such a calculation least lines up with Hank Blalock barely edging out Brian Giles and David Ortiz. More on the individual players in a bit.

List #2: BABIP – ((LD%*.72) + (GB%*.21) + (FB%*.12))

Not so quick and not nearly as dirty, this compares BABIP to a player’s hit type breakdown multipled by the likelihood of those batted balls becoming hits. Again, there’s nothing Earth-shattering behind the theory that if a player hits 10 line drives, 20 ground balls and 20 fly balls, roughly 13 or 14 of those 50 batted balls should be hits. Brian Giles is the top of the bottom of this list.

List #3: Combination of List #1 & #2

I thought this was the best way to trim down the list to 10 guys to target as set-up for a comeback over the last 100 games or so. Here’s the list from bottom to top. (Should I say bottom to bottomest?)

10. Kelly Johnson, Atlanta Braves
BABIP: .270
LD%: 22.2%

Johnson’s batting line (.238/.300/.404) is down from his current career batting line of .269/.349/.435. Before this year, Johnson’s BABIP was .326 in 1,556 PAs. Johnson’s strikeout percentage is down slightly (16.0% compared to 19.2% career) which means he’s making some more contact than usual but that hasn’t resulted into improved numbers. His power is pretty much in line with his career numbers and extra-base hit % is up, too.

9. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
BABIP: .255
LD%: 20.5%

Sizemore is currently on the DL but I was already expecting him to return not only from the disabled list but back to his typical self. Before this year, Grady’s BABIP was .322. Not only is Sizemore’s batting line of .223/.309/.417 down considerably from his career numbers, he’s also striking out 22.1% of the time which is about 3% off his career strikeout %. He’s also making a little less contact this year when he does swing which if combined with an increase in BABIP could make Sizemore the star of the second half. (I picked him as the American League MVP so this might have a smidge of wishful thinking sprinkled in.)

8. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners
BABIP: .243
LD%: 19.2%

Although his BABIP was over .300 last year, over his career, Lopez’s BABIP doesn’t blow you away at .288. It is much better than the .243 he posted through Tuesday. At .245/.282/.409 compared to .269/.301/.399 for his career, it’s not like Lopez is way off his career batting line. His slugging is actually up and he’s on pace to set a career high in walks (not that that is saying much). One concern is the fact that Lopez’s infield hits are down which is something he usually does benefit from.

7. Orlando Cabrera, Oakland Athletics
BABIP: .252
LD%: 20.1%

His career .287 BABIP is not overwhelming but it hasn’t been lower than .270 for an entire season since 2000. Cabrera’s already limited power is down and he’s on pace to steal in the single digits for the first time since 2000 as well. At .234/.285/.298 compared to career numbers of .272/.321/.395, Cabrera would benefit from a BABIP that lines up more closely with his LD%.

6. Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks
BABIP: .228
LD%: 18.7%

Chris Young is terrible this year and really has nowhere to go but up. Although he made the list, there are plenty of other concerns beyond his “unlucky” BABIP. Young is striking out 28.8% of the time (a continuing career trend of that % going up) and his power has disappeared. In 2007, Young his 32 homers and followed that with 22 last year. This year, Young has just four homers but that has no effect on his BABIP. His .228 BABIP is way down from his .275 career BABIP. Even if Young isn’t amazing in the last two-thirds of the season, he should improve on his .177/.234/.308.

5. Jerry Hairston, Cincinnati Reds
BABIP: .267
LD%: 23.9%

Hairston’s numbers this year aren’t bad when looking at his Major League body of work. With a .250/.303/.430 batting line in 2009 compared to his .259/.328/.373 career line, he’s actually slugging much better this year. Hairston needs just one homer to tie his career high (eight as an Oriole in 2001) and based on the BABIP and LD% might be in line to have more fortunate outcomes at the plate. It’s funny that I drafted him with my last pick in this year’s fantasy draft because I wanted a guy who would be easy to cut. Now, I’m considering picking him up.

4. David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
BABIP: .257
LD%: 23.8%

Since the beginning of the year, I haven’t really thought Ortiz has looked right at the plate. Coupled with his increased strikeout %, total lack of power and awful on-base percentage is Big Papi’s nearly 50 point drop in BABIP from his career. Currently, Ortiz has a batting line of .196/.291/.319 with both his batting average and on-base percentage almost 90 points lower than career numbers and his slugging down over 200 points. Ouch! With a few homers finally under his belt and evidence of some unluckiness thrown in with his putrid start, maybe Ortiz is ready to rebound.

3. Jason Kendall, Milwaukee Brewers
BABIP: .257
LD%: 23.0%

Kendall’s BABIP is somewhat in line with the last two seasons (.267 in ‘08 and .261 in ‘07) but he is hitting line drives nearly 5% more often than he was the last two years. The last time Kendall posted a line drive % over 20% for a season, his BABIP was .326. That being said, if Kendall does turn things around, it is likely to only have a major impact on his .224 batting average with minor impact on his .313 on-base percentage and .273 slugging percentage.

2. Hank Blalock, Texas Rangers
BABIP: .252
LD%: 23.4%

If Hank Blalock can get back to his career .303 BABIP to go along with his early power, he might have an impressive two-thirds of a season ahead of him. His poor BABIP has impacted his batting average which is at .253, the lowest it has been since his rookie season in 2002. A BABIP boost would also help his weak .297 on-base percentage. Blalock’s .528 slugging percentage is impressive despite his poor average and his home run every 14-15 at bats would become a big season number if he can keep up that pace.

1. Brian Giles, San Diego Padres
BABIP: .215
LD%: 19.6%

No, Brian Giles did not go on a diet. That .194 is not his weight but is actually his terrible batting average in 2009. In his career, Giles has a .298 BABIP — 83 points higher than his 2009 effort — so it is safe to assume this will rebound. Any move in the right direction at the plate will help Giles’ .194/.277/.277 batting line which is an enormous drop-off from his career .291/.400/.503 batting line. Before this season, Giles had never hit below .263 for an entire year. If Giles reaches 600 ABs this year, he’d need to hit .294 the rest of the year just to get to .260. Based on his low BABIP, I wouldn’t rule it out.

I will be interested to look back at these guys and see how they performed after June 9th. It’s hard to imagine some of these guys not improving their numbers at the plate this year based on their careers and bad starts alone. Throw in the lopsided BABIP and LD% figures and that makes these players prime candidates for improvement in my book.