Measuring MLB’s Offensive Pro- and Re-gression

Posted by Bill Baer on Sunday, May 24, 2009 at 12:09 pm

With baseball’s second month on its way out, let’s take a look at which teams have taken several giant steps forward as well as those who have fallen flat on their faces transitioning from 2008 to ‘09. Most of the data comes from Baseball Reference, the closest thing to a time machine without actually being, you know, a time machine.

* Did you know that there’s not really a good antonym for “improved”? “Least improved” doesn’t work because it implies standing pat instead of actually getting worse. The English language has words for everything except this, apparently. I blame the English language for the clumsy title.

NL Most Improved Offense: Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 RPG: 4.32

2009 RPG: 5.41 (+1.09)

Despite having Manny Ramirez for two months, the Dodgers still finished the 2008 season with the National League’s fourth-worst offense. Andre Ethier was the only member of the Blue Crew to hit 20 or more home runs, and James Loney was the only one to cross the 90-RBI threshold.

Now, they have arguably the most productive outfield in Major League Baseball and three Dodgers are on pace to hit 20 or more home runs. Further, since losing Manny Ramirez to that 50-game drug suspension, the team has averaged 5.1 runs per game. Their average while Manny was on the team this season? 5.5.

They can thank Juan Pierre for more-than-adequately filling in for Ramirez in left field. Since playing full-time on May 7, Pierre has put up a 1.026 OPS that includes nearly one-third of his 25 hits going for extra bases (7 doubles, 1 triple). This is all in 75 plate appearances and 63 at-bats.

NL Most Regressed Offense: Chicago Cubs

2008 RPG: 5.31

2009 RPG: 4.51 (-0.80)

The ‘08 Cubs had above-average offensive production at every position last season except shortstop and right field, but even then, both of those guys (Ryan Theriot and Kosuke Fukudome, respectively) had an OPS+ of 90 or better, so they weren’t that far off anyway. Even one of their pitchers was able to crank out four home runs and knock in 14 runs: Carlos Zambrano. This Cubs roster scored nearly .4 runs per game more than the second-best NL offense, the Philadelphia Phillies.

This year’s squad is much less potent. Only two members of the starting lineup have an above-average OPS+, Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano. Moreover, those two are the only ones showing any kind of power. Hard to believe, but of the Cubbies with at least 100 PA, Ryan Theriot has the third-best SLG at .442.

In their defense, they have had to deal with a gruesome injury to third baseman Aramis Ramirez, and first baseman Derrek Lee hasn’t looked like he’s been at 100% at all. The bench has done a decent job of filling in, but not enough to prevent the offense from slipping below the league average.

AL Most Improved Offense: Tampa Bay Rays

2008 RPG: 4.78

2009 RPG: 5.76 (+0.98)

This isn’t much of a surprise since they are getting incredible production out of their infield, particularly first base (Carlos Pena, 151 OPS+), shortstop (Jason Bartlett, 158 OPS+), and third base (Evan Longoria, 162 OPS+). Ben Zobrist has been incredible as well (164 OPS+). Those four have really been anchoring the offense, along with Carl Crawford and his 106 OPS+ and leading the Majors in stolen bases, stealing 26 in as many opportunities.

For as great as the infield has been offensively for the Rays, they have been getting awful production from their catcher (Dioner Navarro, 37 OPS+), center fielder (B.J. Upton, 54 OPS+), and designated hitter (Pat Burrell, 75 OPS+). How they’ve managed to lead the league in offense with three dead weights in the starting lineup is incredible.

Consider last year, when they were a league-average offense, their worst regular contributor was Jason Bartlett with an 82 OPS+. It’s unlikely that Bartlett will maintain his blazing start in the first 45 games, but his improvement has been the biggest change in the Rays’ offense.

Additionally, the Rays led the league last year — as they do this year — in stolen bases. However, in ‘08, they also led in total number of runners caught stealing. In ‘09, they’re below the league average of 10 with 9 CS. As we have seen with the Philadelphia Phillies, it’s not the total number of bags you steal, it’s how efficient you are in your attempts.

AL Most Regressed Offense: Chicago White Sox

2008 RPG: 4.98

2009 RPG: 3.90 (-1.08)

What happened to the White Sox? It isn’t age, as the oldest players in the lineup (Konerko, Dye, Thome) are the only ones producing. It isn’t a poor approach at the plate, as their poorly-producing infielders are nowhere to be found among the leaderboards in the FanGraphs plate discipline section.

It may be a bit of bad luck, as only two of the regulars have a BABIP above the league average of .299. Josh Fields (51 OPS+), is right below the league average, so his poor production is even more mystifying. Chris Getz (57 OPS+) is at .272.

The only infielder who’s been really unlucky is Alexei Ramirez (53 OPS+), with a .229 BABIP. Carlos Quentin has a 95 OPS+ despite a .194 BABIP.

It may be the way they’re hitting the ball. Both Ramirez and Getz have poor line drive rates at 13.4% and 12.7% respectively. Center fielder Brian Anderson (74 OPS+) is at 12.5%. A player who hits a lot of line drives has a much better opportunity for his hits to fall in than do those who hit a lot of ground balls or fly balls.