Posted by Bill Baer on Sunday, May 17, 2009 at 5:30 am

In previous articles here at BDD, I’ve harped on the fact that the tougher drug policies have done little to decrease offense. There were claims made popular by the mainstream media last season around this time that offense was down and we have Bud Selig’s tougher policies on performance-enhancing drug use to thank. Then hitters started hitting as the weather warmed up, making the claim — as MSM claims often become — wrong.

Have a look at the average OPS in the Majors for each month last season:

• March/April: .733 OPS
• May: .736
• June: .750
• July: .762
• August: .759
• September/October: .756

Warmer weather equals more offense. Perhaps down the road, I’ll find out exactly how much temperature correlates with hitting, but for now, we can at least presume a positive relationship. 2007 numbers follow almost the same exact pattern except OPS increases in August until the end of the season, so it’s not like it’s a one-year thing.

Taking a look at this year’s stats… and wouldn’t you know it, offense is on the rise! And it hasn’t even warmed up yet!

I thought we had cracked down on PED users. Oh, we have — drug suspensions have been decreasing with each passing season. The total number of players suspended for violating the drug policy in 2008 and ‘09 combined (7) is less than the number suspended in ‘07 (8); there were 12 players suspended in 2005. But that hasn’t had any effect on offensive production.

The following chart will show you what offense looked like since MLB’s drug policy got tough:

Jeez, a decrease in offense every year since 2006? A rousing success for tougher drug policies, right?

This chart will show you what it looks like with 2009’s pace included:

Given that we’re just now beginning to enjoy warmer weather, we would expect that the offense will continue to pick up. In April, MLB had an average OPS of .762 and May so far (excluding Saturday’s games) has an OPS of .760. The last time those months were that potent was… back in 2006.

Further, no team has played its 40th game of the season, yet we have 16 players already into the double-digits in home runs. 10 home runs in 40 games prorates to 40.5 HR in a 162-game season. So, we have 16 players on pace for at least 40 dingers. Here’s the top-ten list:

• Adrian Gonzalez, SDP: 15 HR, 37 G (Pace: 66 HR)
• Albert Pujols, STL: 13 HR, 35 G (60)
• Raul Ibanez, PHI: 13 HR, 35 G (60)
• Carlos Pena, TBR: 13 HR, 37 G (57)
• Justin Morneau, MIN: 12 HR, 37 G (53)
• Jay Bruce, CIN: 11 HR, 34 G (52)
• Alfonso Soriano, CHC: 11 HR, 34 G (52)
• Ian Kinsler, TEX: 11 HR, 36 G (50)
• Evan Longoria, TBR: 11 HR, 36 G (50)
• Jason Bay, BOS: 11 HR, 37 G (48)

We had two — count ‘em, two: Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn — cross the 40-plateau last season. Five in 2007, and 11 in 2006.

So far, we have ten on pace for at least 48! With the offense expected to pick up, the possibilities are endless.

In the discussion on my “Josh Hamilton Is Not A Hero” article, I kept asking for evidence that steroids were performance-enhancing. It’s not the first time I’ve asked for evidence nor will it be the last time.

Intelligent, skeptical discussion is few and far between on this matter. Most of us simply accept with blind faith that steroids are just like the mushrooms in Super Mario Bros. where you simply put the substance into your body and you instantly transform into this guy.

We need a more honest, scientific approach to the matter rather than knee-jerk character assassination, which is what players like Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez experienced.

We need more consistency in the policies, as well.

What constitutes “performance-enhancing”? Would MaxSight contacts qualify?

Are we really concerned about the players’ health? If so, why is Raul Ibanez allowed to shove a wad of chewing tobacco in his mouth while he’s in left field at Citizens Bank Park?

Answering these and many other questions, and reacting to the answers may involve either adding more and more substances to the list or removing the drug policy altogether. And hey, maybe even an apology to Bonds and A-Rod.

One thing is for sure: what we have right now isn’t working, no matter where you stand on the so-called issue. If you like ridding the sport of athletes who inject themselves with anabolic steroids, then you can’t like the fact that offense hasn’t been affected. If you dislike telling adult athletes what they can and can’t put in their bodies, then you can’t like the fact that has been no correlation between the tougher policies and a decrease in offensive production, yet the policies stay in tact with progress moving at glacial speed.

Progress starts with the paying customer. Businesses (Major League Baseball is one, of course) will always follow the money, and people speak with their wallets. That’s the way it was during the McGwire-Sosa chase of 1998, and that’s the way it will always be. Right now, the paying customers don’t like ‘roiders, so MLB is cracking down on ‘roiders. If baseball fans didn’t care about steroids, then neither would Selig.

Why are the politicians involved? Well, that’s easy: follow the money; the health industry has the second-most powerful lobby in the United States. Pharmaceuticals are a big part of that industry.

The paying customer — the casual fan — does not put in a lot of time and effort into researching the cause and effects of steroid use. They hear “steroid bad” and accept that on blind faith. A progressive attempt to fine-tune the drug policy would be to help educate casual fans on what steroids can and cannot do (note: they do not make your pop flies travel an extra 75 feet). A more educated fan base might realize the error of its ways and call for an end to cries for asterisks and lifetime bannings and Scarlet Letters.

Maybe I’m just idealistic. After all, we are talking about a country that has, historically, persecuted people for the most inconsequential of differences, be it gender, race, religion, sexual orientation, tax bracket, etc. ‘roider is the new queer, at least in baseball anyway. We humans are a cruel lot.

All I know is balls are flying out of the park again in grand style, and I’m loving it. And I could care less what is coursing through the players’ blood streams because there’s no evidence that anything in there — besides the blood itself — has any effect on his ability to play the game of baseball at a higher level.

I’m enjoying the game of baseball right now. I feel sorry for those that are letting the so-called steroids issue mar their enjoyment of the sport — it’s a shame. There is so much to love about the game right now, like the upstart Texas Rangers, or the Phillies-Mets rivalry, another dark horse in the AL East (the Blue Jays), Adam Jones, and on down the line. By creating this controversy and fanning the flames, Bud Selig, politicians like George Mitchell, and the mainstream media are actually cheating a large segment of the baseball fan base out of enjoying this great game.

That’s the real crime in all of this.