Posted by Rob McQuown on Wednesday, May 13, 2009 at 12:20 pm

Last week, I started to write about the possibilities of an impending collapse by the Royals, but couldn’t find a good balance for a full analytical piece and went with some “fresh” commentary on the old standard “Casey At the Bat“. At the time, the Royals were 16-11, and widening their gap over the Tigers….

But now, oh how fast things can change! The Tigers have caught the Royals after a rough 4-game losing streak punctuated by lefty Joe Saunders out-dueling the amazing Zack Greinke, despite a Royals lineups which – before then – had treated LHP roughly. To add injury to insult, Joakim Soria – the pitcher with arguably the best nickname (“Mexicutioner”) and the best curveball – is confirming Will Carroll’s ominous feelings by going to the DL.

The team is still 18-15 after yesterday’s drubbing by Oakland, and their third-order expected record is 18.6-14.4, so it’s hardly smoke and mirrors. Or is it? Frankly, the team is a bit of an enigma at this point. Some scattered comments:

- Supergenius manager Trey Hillman seems to have gotten over the $9 Million cost of Kyle Farnsworth quicker than some managers might have done, and if/when Soria is healthy, he shouldn’t see many 8th innings any more.

- Farnsworth (and his usage) is somewhat to blame for the team’s W-L being below expected, but so is Greinke. Not that anyone is complaining, but concentrating so much run prevention in so few games skews the stats slightly. This may be one of the only times where the argument that a starting pitcher is worth less because he pitches only every 5th day has some merit, and it took an historic start by Greinke to happen. Oh, and he’s easily theteam MVP (and a contender for league MVP) anyway, of course.
- The Updated Depth Charts show that the Royals should go just 58-72 the rest of the way. Maybe that will improve when PECOTA takes the hot starts by Callaspo and Teahen into account, but it’s not clear that the team will be able to get even the projected 10 VORP from their 3rd+ starting pitchers.
- The team has 6 hitters who have amassed 3+ VORP so far: Callaspo, Crisp, Teahen, Bloomquist (8.7 VORP), Jacobs (4.4 VORP), and Guillen. Callaspo is young, and possibly underrated by PECOTA, but his BABIP is extreme, indicating that there’s no significant chance he’ll keep this up. None of the other players is under 27, with several being well into their declining years.

- Brian Bannister is the #2 pitcher (by VORP), and has a .233 BABIP and a relatively low K/G rate. Expect him to return to Earth with a “thud”.

- On the “glass half full” side, Alex Gordon, David Dejesus, and Mike Aviles have combined for -14.6 VORP. The Depth Charts suggest they will contribute 26.9 VORP the rest of the way.

- Gil Meche is pitching better than his (already respectable) ERA, with an atypical .352 BABIP.

It’s difficult to take a team seriously which has no standout offensive players, and whose #4 contributor on offense is Willie Bloomquist, while #5 isn’t particularly close to him. Add to that the struggles of the #4 and #5 SP, and the fact that the bullpen behind Soria and Cruz is led (in VORP) by Jamey Wright and Robinson Tejeda.

But there’s a basic truth about team-building that has held for decades, even though Billy Beane has tried to get away from it, with some level of success. That is that it’s always easier (read: cheaper, more efficient, more options, etc.) to upgrade a “bad” or “terrible” part of a team to “adequate” than it is to upgrade an “adequate” position to “star” (or “superstar”). So, having stars and superstars significantly extends the “upside” of a team.

If the Royals are able to stay near the top of the division while they sort out which of their “suspects” have anything left (Ponson, Wright, Ramirez, Tejeda, etc.), which “solid” players have become useless (Aviles?, Dejesus?), how healthy their stars will be (Gordon and Soria), and whether their young players will emerge this year (e.g. Callaspo, Hochevar), they could be in a good spot. They can shop for 1 or 2 pieces to replace some of their deadwood, with the full expectation that such deals will dramatically improve their team.

If Dayton Moore needs a suggestion, there are a couple teams near our Nation’s Capitol which may be hanging “CLEARANCE” signs soon…

Please feel free to leave comments below. Questions for the author may be submitted to Rob McQuown at rmcquown@baseballdigestdaily.com or robmcquown@yahoo.com. Past articles for this author can be found under “Staff Writers” at the Baseball Daily Digest site.