Posted by Jeff Lubbers on Wednesday, May 13, 2009 at 12:33 am

If Barry Zito Tweets it, it must be true.

While the baseball world was reacting to the news of Manny Ramirez’s suspension, Barry Zito was busy letting everyone know (via Twitter, naturally) that the Giants’ time had come: “Manny’s gone for 50 games. time for the Giants to capitalize.”

In the 5 days since the suspension was announced the notion of the Giants overtaking the Dodgers in the N.L. West has gained steam and given some mainstream legitimacy beyond Zito’s 140 characters with Tom Verducci’s story on just that possibility.

The only problem, of course, is that it simply isn’t going to happen (and not just because I’m trying to make amends for foolish predictions in the past).

Anyone reading beyond the headline of the Verducci story (not to mention anyone taking a look at the reliable Postseason Odds report over at Baseball Prospectus) realizes the improbability of the Giants overtaking the Dodgers, as Verducci lists all of the Giants’ offensive deficiencies without giving much reason to believe that a division title for San Francisco could actually happen.

Through games of May 12 the Dodgers lead the league in run differential, yet even with the Dodgers the N.L. West has the second worst collective run differential in all of baseball (behind the A.L. West). The gap between the Dodgers and Giants in run differential is far greater than the gap between any other first and second place team.

As a team the Giants are pretty much performing as expected – with a respectable defense and an offense that’s mediocre at best. Not a single Giants player is individually underperforming what was realistically expected. (While Randy Johnson will reach 300 career wins in the next month he is clearly in the decline phase of his career.) Additionally there is not a single Dodgers’ player who appears to be over performing to the extent that a return to normalcy will derail the Dodgers’ chances as the year goes on.

The notion of the Giants overtaking the Dodgers has an underlying tone of Ramirez and the Dodgers getting their just deserts from chemically enhancing. However, while the headline, “Dodgers Will Maintain Division Lead Without Ramirez Due To Mediocre Division, Upsetting Steroids Vigilantes” may not have as much of an appeal to it, it will remain the story of the N.L. West for the next two months.