Posted by Michael Street on Tuesday, May 12, 2009 at 11:01 pm

Kenshin Kawakami came into Atlanta this year as a part of their attempt to revamp their rotation. With John Smoltz departed to Boston and Tom Glavine on his last legs (or last shoulder ligaments), the once-proud tradition had now faded into mediocrity.

Determined to reverse the decline, Atlanta brought in ace Derek Lowe and inning-eater Javier Vazquez to supplement their budding star Jair Jurrjens. They also signed Kenshin Kawakami to be their #4 starter, hoping he’d bring some of his bulldog tenacity to the bottom of the rotation.

So far, he hasn’t been too fantastic, but some of that has been just bad bounces. Kawakami’s actually not been as bad as his record indicates—he’s just had some hard baseball luck.

Kawakami won his first start of the season, a 6 IP effort against the Washington Nationals where he gave up 3 ERs on 4 H, 4 BB and 8 Ks. (You can read more about that start in my earlier Pacific Perspectives). Atlanta won 5-3, and Kawakami’s eight strikeouts seemed to bode well for the Japanese ace.

April 16 vs. Florida Marlins

His next time out was against the 8-1 Marlins, at the time one of the hottest teams in baseball. In the second inning, Jorge Cantu ripped a ground ball past Omar Infante at 3B for a single. Kawakami got the next batter, Dan Uggla, to ground to short for a tailor-made ground ball. Yuni Escobar fed Kelly Johnson beautifully, but Johnson dropped the ball and both runners were safe.

Kawakami retired Jeremy Hermida on a flyout, but he fell behind 2-0 on Cody Ross, who hammered the inside fastball over the left field fence. His fielders had made one mistake, Kawakami had made another, and Atlanta now trailed 3-0. He seemed to settle down after this, though, and it wasn’t until the sixth that Florida struck again.

Now trailing 3-2, Kawakami walked Uggla, then grooved one to Hermida, who smoked the ball into the gap for an RBI triple. Ross plated him on a sac fly, and that was the last run that Kawakami gave up that day. He got the next two hitters to ground out, then left the game. His final line: 6 IP, 4 ER, 5H, 3 BB, 7 Ks. Not pretty, but he’d been solid most of the game, and Johnson’s error opened the door to two of those runs.

April 21 @ Washington Nationals

Game Three was a return engagement with the Nats. Yoked to an early 3-0 lead, Kawakami began the second inning by giving up a leadoff double to Elijah Dukes on a high fastball. Dukes was eliminated trying to steal third, while Austin Kearns worked Kawakami for an eight-pitch walk.

Jesus Flores followed Kearns’ lead by seeing five pitches from Kawakami; when he finally got one down the pipe, he ripped it deep into left field, just inches away from a home run. Kearns scored, but Kawakami settled down to work out of the inning.

He retired the side in order in the third and fifth, and walked two straight in the fourth with one out, but worked out of that, too, with a groundout and a strikeout. In the sixth, however, the wheels came off.

Leading off the inning, Adam Dunn ripped a low fastball over the centerfield fence. There’s no shame to giving up a dinger to Dunn, but it seemed to shake Kawakami a bit. He fell behind 3-1 to Dukes, worked the count full, and then Dukes rocketed a tough shot to Chipper Jones at third. Jones was handcuffed and Dukes reached first.

Kearns, the next man up, lifted a low breaking ball to left field, where Matt Diaz misplayed it for a triple. Dukes scored an unearned run, and Kawakami was yanked; Jeff Bennett, in relief, allowed Kearns to score. Once again, Kawakami had pitched well, but had suffered from mistakes, his and his teammates’. Final line: 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 2K.

April 26 @ Cincinnati Reds

His fourth start was ugly, though it didn’t start that way. Only two batters reached in the first three innings, one on a walk and another on a HBP. In the fourth, Joey Votto reached on a one-out double, then advanced to third on a wild pitch. Kawakami retired Brandon Phillips and looked like he might get out of the inning unscathed. But Jay Bruce rode a high, outside four-seamer over the left-field fence for a two-run shot.

In the fifth, Roberto Hernandez singled through the right side of the infield and Paul Janish, squaring around to bunt, took a pitch off his right shoulder. With two on, Micah Owings ripped a ball up the middle, but the ball clipped Hernandez on the left heel. Instead of a double-play ball, Hernandez was out and Wily Taveras came to the plate with runners at first and second.

Taveras grounded a slow roller to the left of shortstop Yuni Escobar, who couldn’t get it in time to nail the speedy Taveras, so the bases were loaded for Laynce Nix. Nix couldn’t cash anything in, ripping a 1-2 pitch into right field, where Jeff Francoeur gloved it and rifled it home to hold the runners.

Once again, Kawakami was on the brink of success, but Joey Votto stepped to the plate and smoked a hanging breaking ball into right field. This time, Francoeur couldn’t reach it, and all three runs scored. Brandon Phillip, up next, took an outside pitch almost over the right field wall, bringing in Votto.

With Jay Bruce down 1-2, Kawakami laid in a belt-high outside fastball, which Bruce promptly planted into the right field bleachers for his second home run of the day. Final line: 4.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 1 K.

May 5 vs. New York Mets

Kawakami had his next start pushed back a few days to rest his shoulder, making some wonder if he’s been hiding an injury. Against the Mets, he worked in and out of trouble, allowing runners in every inning—it was only a matter of time before one of those came back to bite him, and he’s lucky his day wasn’t worse.

In the first, he escaped runners at the corners with two outs and by getting David Wright to strike out. He loaded the bases in the second inning—one on an error—but again wriggled off the hook when Dan Murphy swung at a high 3-1 pitch to fly out to deep center.

Carlos Beltran led off the third with a single, stole second, then came around to score when Kawakami hung a breaking ball to David Wright, who smacked it within a few feet of the top of the fence. Ryan Church flied out for the second out, but Ramon Castro worked Kawakami for nine pitches before doubling home Wright.

In the fourth, Kawakami allowed Dan Murphy to reach via a one-out walk, then gave up a single to Carlos Beltran before fanning Carlos Delgado and David Wright, no small feat. Ramon Castro doubled again in the fifth, but he was the only runner to reach, and Kawakami finished the game with a decent enough line: 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 7 K.

May 10 @ Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta pegged Kawakami to an early 1-0 lead, and Kawakami responded by mowing them down easily in the bottom of the first. But in the second, he made Ryan Howard look foolish on a few outside breaking pitches before filling the count. Howard then lifted one of those outside curves into deep right field for a stand-up double to lead off the inning.

Kawakami worked Ibanez outside, too, getting him to pop up, and then he walked Matt Stairs on four straight pitches, possibly to set up the double play. He fell behind Pedro Feliz 2-0 and ran a fastball in on his hands, but Feliz fisted it out into left to score Howard. With the score tied, Kawakami settled down and fanned the next two batters to end the inning.

The score stayed knotted until the sixth, with only three batters reaching in three innings, two of them on walks in the fifth. This should have been a sign that Kawakami was losing his stuff, since one of those walks was the opposing pitcher.

Facing Howard again to lead off the sixth, Kawakami fell behind 2-0, and Howard ripped another outside breaking ball past the shift for another leadoff double. Once again, Kawkami worked him away nicely and again got him to pop out. But he gave Stairs an outside fastball on a 1-1 count, and Stairs drove it the other way for an RBI double.

Kawakami then struck out Feliz, walked Carlos Ruiz, and struck out Greg Dobbs, pinch-hitting for Myers. The Braves gave him the lead with a two-run single from Casey Kotchman in their half of the seventh, and Kawakami’s night was finished. His final line: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 6 K. Not a bad night, except for the high pitch count.

Outlook

He’s been averaging about 18 pitches an inning, which is not an efficient way to get business done, pointing to something typical of Japanese pitchers. In Japan, NPB pitchers aren’t on pitch counts. If anything, they’ve got the freedom to throw as many pitches as they need to. It’s not unusual for a starter to throw some more in the bullpen when his night is done, or even get used as a reliever one of his “rest” days.

So Kawakami needs to get used to the stricter pitch count on MLB teams, where the seasons are longer and the batters punish mistakes more. NPB pitchers also are more likely to walk a guy or pitch around him, and a stud like Kawakami has likely been in the habit of doing so in Japan. Tom Seaver used to do this—walking guys he didn’t want to face to get to the guy he knew he could put away—but Kawakami’s not Tom Seaver (who is?).

That’s not to say he’s a bad pitcher. He’s done well enough in his first handful of starts, and his last two have seen the ball bounce his way a little more than it did in his first few games. He’s walked a tightrope at times, but only the Cincinatti game saw him get truly shelled—and even that was partly the result of some bad breaks.

That’s baseball, and it’s true of all pitchers, including Kawakami: sometimes a guy makes a play behind you, sometimes he doesn’t. His BABIP (the best way we have to measure this kind of luck/defense combination) so far this year is .337, a pretty high mark (though every pitcher has his own level). That’s most likely to drop in the future as some of those balls bounce his way.

Then again, Kawakami is also responsible for his own fate, as he’s the one falling behind hitters, tiring himself enough that he starts to get more hittable in those late innings. He’s got to assume some blame, but he’s a smart guy who’s going to make adjustments. We’ve seen that in each game, as he makes a mistake and gives up a run or two, then bears down to finish the inning without further damage.

Next week, we’ll look at Koji Uehara’s first handful of starts. Uehara’s had much more success than Kawakami, in spite of pitching higher in the order, and that’s probably going to continue. But I’d look for Kawakami to continue to settle down to an above-average hurler, even if he’ll never be the ace in MLB that he was in Japan.