Baseball’s Best Bets (May 7, 2009)
Posted by Brian Joseph on Thursday, May 7, 2009 at 4:08 am
If only they were all as easy as last night. First, the Cubs jumped all over the Astros and won 6-3. Then, Toronto scored an early touchdown against the Angels and added six more to win 13-1. The third game was the charm as the Dodgers broke open their record-setting win against the Nationals and cruised to a 10-3 win. If only 3-0 nights were all this easy. Thanks to BDD’s Rob McQuown for the assist on a perfect day as he talked me off the Twins yesterday.
Tonight’s not so easy and while I’m very tempted to jump on the Jason Marquis bandwagon (apparently the aisles are roomy and it’s not all that crowded), the Rockies aren’t that good and are a big favorite at -140. Sure, Marquis owns the best ERA amongst active pitchers at Coors Field and is 5-0 with a 2.72 ERA there but as last night proved with the Padres and Jake Peavy, bad teams find ways to lose.
Another tempting pick is the Rangers on the road. The Rangers are turning out to be the best case scenario I thought they might be and the Athletics are leaning toward that worst case scenario I also thought they could be. However, a young pitcher like Trevor Cahill could easily wake up and toss a gem, even against an offensive juggernaut like the Rangers. We’ll see if I regret backing off those two picks.
TODAY’S PICKS
Milwaukee Brewers (EVEN) over Cincinnati Reds
THE BET: 100 Units / Win = +100, Loss = -100
Let’s get the Brewers while they’re hot and take Braden Looper who has a lifetime 5-2 record and 3.45 ERA against the Reds and a batting line against current Reds of .230/.274/.330 in 110 PAs. Reds starter Micah Owings has a small sample of PAs vs. current Brewers and it is U-G-L-Y at .333/.375/.684. Plus, Owings has only made it through six innings twice in his last 12 starts. With the Reds depleted bullpen that’s a nother plus for the Brew Crew. Looper didn’t have a great game against the Reds back on April 15th when I bet his Brewers to beat the Reds with Owings on the mound… but the Brewers did win 9-3. I’m betting history to somewhat repeat itself. Especially with the Brewers averaging 10 runs a game in their last three.
YESTERDAY’S RECAP
Season-to-Date: 37-22, +1,069 Units, +1,431 Units Unadjusted
Yesterday’s Winners
Chicago Cubs (-148) over Houston Astros (Cubs, 6-3)
Toronto Blue Jays (-158) over Los Angeles Angels (Blue Jays, 13-1)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-191) over Washington Nationals (Dodgers, 10-3)
Yesterday’s Losers
None















