Posted by Brian Joseph on Tuesday, April 21, 2009 at 3:13 am

I was never sold on Andrew Miller but I ignored that yesterday and went one game too far in my swimming with the Fish. Miller left with an injury that landed him on the DL and Ross Ohlendorf owned the Marlins’ lineup and delivered BDD’s BBBs a winless night at 0-1 with -116 Units.

The full slate of action on Tuesday has a lot of intriguing match-ups but two picks rise to the top including the first over/under bet of the year. But before that, let’s take a look at some of the other picks discarded after some consideration:

Indians (-175) over Royals — It’s tough to lay such a big number when you look at these two teams and their ‘09 starts. Sidney Ponson pitches for the Royals and current Indians have hammered him to the tune of .379/.440/.545 but I’m too concerned about the Indians bullpen right now to risk such a big vig.

Angels (-106) over Tigers — Historically, the Tigers do not do well against the Angels in Anaheim. But the Angels aren’t playing well and Armando Galarraga has built on his ‘08 success. Plus, Galarraga has made three career starts vs. the Angels and his team was victorious in all three. Also, Angels starter Jered Weaver has a batting line of .383/.436/.638 in 56 plate appearances against current Tigers. By the end, I was pretty close to going the other way here but Detroit’s 7-25 in their last 32 meetings in Anaheim has me keeping my distance.

Rays/Mariners Over 8.5 — Neither Andy Sonnanstine nor Jarrod Washburn have pitched well against their opponents. Washburn has looked like a different pitcher in ‘09 than in ‘08 so I’m just being cautious here.

Cubs (-222) over Reds — Rich Harden against the worst-hitting team in baseball? The Cubs bullpen will still have to pitch three innings (at least) to nail it down and that’s a concern.

Padres (-117) over Giants — Jake Peavy is 8-4 with a 3.67 ERA at AT&T Park and has a .231/.283/.355 batting line against current Giants. However, Matt Cain has a better batting line against current Padres (.187/.275/.317) and the Padres are travelling coast-to-coast after their game with the Phillies was rained out on Monday night. That hurts their chances.

TODAY’S PICKS

Texas Rangers (+197) over Toronto Blue Jays
THE BET: 100 Units / Win = +197, Loss = -100

I vowed a long time ago to never bet against Roy Halladay but something has me liking the Rangers here. Well, a couple of things. First, Halladay’s hitting line against all of baseball is .254/.300/.374 but against current Rangers it is .287/.322/.441. Also, there’s Rangers starter Brandon McCarthy who has a .170/.304/.213 batting line against current Blue Jays (in just 57 PAs). The Jays are 6-4 when Halladay starts against the Rangers and 2-1 at home so maybe the numbers are swayed a bit by the number of times he’s had to pitch in Arlington. It’s a low-risk, high-reward bet and after hitting two of those over the weekend, I can’t pass this one up.

Philadelphia Phillies/Milwaukee Brewers OVER 10
THE BET: 100 Units / Win = +100, Loss = -110

Manny Parra’s only start against Philadelphia last year at Citizens Bank Park ended after just an 1-1/3 inning and the final score was 7-3 but Parra’s opponent had Cole Hamels on the mound. This time Jamie Moyer pitches for the Phillies and he hasn’t impressed so far. He did beat the Brewers twice during the regular season but has a .347/.407/.551 batting line against current Brewers. The Phillies bats are heating up, neither starters have pitched well this year, both bullpens have been shaky… you do the math.

YESTERDAY’S RECAPS

Season-to-Date: 18-15, -102 Units, +260 Units Unadjusted

Yesterday’s Winners
None

Yesterday’s Losers
Florida Marlins (-116) over Pittsburgh Pirates (Pirates, 8-0)