Apologies To Mr. Garza, But Boy Was I Wrong….

Posted by Eric SanInocencio on Monday, April 20, 2009 at 4:51 pm

If there’s one thing you learn from playing and watching baseball, it’s how to accept failure. Not only accept, but learn from the experience while making an adjustment so that it doesn’t happen again. Sadly, that trait doesn’t often translate to those who cover the game, the second guessers that refuse to use the same powers of reflection on columns or opinions they had during any given season.

Only because of sites like the now retired FireJoeMorgan.com did we ever see anyone held accountable for some of the more ridiculous claims made. The blogosphere is even harder to police, with members throwing out opinions at every site on the net, but rarely taking the time to admit when one of their “this is going to happen, trust me” lines is disproved or turns out to be horribly wrong.

Today, I point the high powered lens at myself. Having written for a few different sites during my short foray into baseball blogging, I’ve made some outlandish accusations (Carl Pohlad/Johan) while chastising those in power that seem to make bad decisions (Bud Selig).

Most times the goal of these opinions was to create banter, almost a conversational atmosphere that encourages your readers to participate. Well, judging by comments made, one of my most popular stories was one that at the time involved a blockbuster trade of two high-ceiling prospects.

Back in November of 2007, the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays finalized a deal that sent two first round picks, including a top-overall selection, packing to opposite sides of country. Six players were involved, and the mammoth move galvanized two fans bases and the entire industry just as general managers were getting ready to head to
Nashville, Tenn., for the Winter Meetings.

It was an exciting day to be a Rays blogger. You were forced to make a quick reaction, scan the players received and come up with reasoning as to why the team you were covering “won” the deal or not. Instant analysis is the name of the game, and despite being at my regular job that morning, I cranked out 1300 words about the trade.

Two years later, I can only say this. I WAS WRONG. Who am I kidding? I was way off. I couldn’t have missed this more than a Johan Santana change up in a 2-0 count. I’ll just let my opening paragraph speak for itself.

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“As of tonight, this deal appears to be completed. Due to concerns over Juan Rincon’s elbow, the Twins substituted minor league pitcher Eduardo Morlan. Morlan’s upside as a reliever is very high and sweetens the pot to some degree, but I still feel this doesn’t give you enough established talent for a perennial power hitter.”
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Now, mind you, at the time Delmon Young was viewed as a can’t miss talent, a prodigious hitter that would be a perennial .300-30-100 guy as early as his mid-20s. I mean, he did hit .288 with 93 RBIs that season (2007) as a 21-year old. There seemed to be nowhere to go but further up, despite Young’s propensity to swing at everything thrown at him (.316 OBP that same year).

The power was sure to come too, because his ridiculous minor league totals (51 HRs in his first two years) proved that there was 30 homer potential amongst his five tool package. Young was supposed to the Rays right fielder for at least six years, pairing with the BJ Uptons and Carl Crawfords of the world to give

Tampa Bay the most athletic outfield in all of baseball. That all changed on one November day, as Young was now the Twins prized prospect, with Minnesota appearing to find that stellar bat to place in between the M&M brothers (Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau).

Young was the answer to all Twins fans were searching for, a powerful, cheap and exciting player that could anchor right field until his free agency in 2013. Equipped with good speed (75 SBs in the minors) and a rifle arm, this change of scenery was supposed to unlock all the ability possessed by the former top overall selection.

Despite some well chronicled attitude issues (remember this?), I remember thinking at the time, “Why are they getting rid of him? He has to be the most valuable player in this deal.” I was also hung up in the fact that the big piece the Rays were getting back has issues of his own, and was a pitcher nonetheless. Here’s what I wrote about the two different positions.

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“First off, I am usually not in favor of trading an extremely productive position player for a pitcher. To me it is just simple mathematics. A position player has a chance to affect every game he plays in, while the hurler can only influence the contest that he is on the mound. So, by that logic, in order for the trade to be worth while, the pitcher has to be significantly better than the hitter coming back. I just don’t feel Matt Garza is.”
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A spirited debate then broke out on the site about whether my math was right, and even though some showed numerical figures that appeared to prove me wrong, I’m not sure that I don’t still agree with this statement. Either way, the whole premise behind this formula I attempted to create was my opinion that Matt Garza wasn’t a good enough pitcher for the supposed trade-off you were losing from a positional player.

Again, no one ever questioned Garza’s ability, but he didn’t exactly have a clean record himself. His fiery attitude on the mound often led to questions about his maturity, and other than a short stretch of dominance in 2006 he was far from a polished product. Up to that point, he had hurled 133 innings as a major leaguer, allowing 158 hits and 55 walks. Not exactly stellar numbers.

The other players certainly favored the Rays (Jason Bartlett over Brendan Harris, Eddie Morlan over Jason Pridie), but to me the center of this deal was Young/Garza. It appeared as if there was much more risk on the Tampa Bay side of the ledger, giving up a seemingly consistent hitter for a pitcher that hadn’t quite figured it out at the big league level. Here was my summation of the deal from the Rays perspective.

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“To close out my analysis, I have to say that while this haul is close to being good enough, it doesn’t quite measure up for me. You are trading a known commodity in Delmon Young for the potential greatness of Matt Garza. While I agree that the upside Garza has rivals anyone in the Rays system, he isn’t there yet. The contracts are a wash, so what this trade will basically come down to is whether Garza can become the 1-2 punch with Kazmir to headline the Rays rotation.”
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Funny how this was even a debate just two years ago, seeing as how you can clearly say now that Tampa Bay “won” this deal in a landslide. Not only has Garza cemented himself as one of the best young arms in the majors, but shortstop Jason Bartlett added great value to a Rays defense that was one of the best in the league in 2008.

Bartlett’s stellar defensive played actually got him named the team’s MVP by the local writers from the area.

Garza’s influence on Tampa Bay’s magical run is even more paramount, with the now 25-year old hurler posting an ERA+ of 120 in 2008. Despite worries about a big jump in innings, Garza became the second best starter (behind James Shields) on a Rays team that made the postseason and the World Series for the first time ever in the history of the franchise. He won both of his starts against rival Boston in the ALCS, throwing 13 frames and allowing only two earned runs. He is even off to a good start in 2009, upping his strikeout per nine ratio to 8.2.

Young on the other hand is still searching for that Hall of Fame hype bestowed upon him early in his career. He is now fighting for at bats with Minnesota, one of four outfielders the Twinkies rotate around during the course of the week. His numbers have stagnated, despite in increase in OBP (.336) last year. No longer is he viewed as the once in a generation hitter he was pegged as just 24 months ago.

What we learn everyday is that even when this game appears easy to understand, you will never know everything about it. It is always changing and evolving, with new ways to measure and comprehend the transactions that take place on the diamond.

In this case, Tampa Bay gave up very little to gain everything. Even if at the time, idiots like me thought it was the other way around. Guess that’s why I’m still writing at this computer.