Posted by Brian Joseph on Friday, April 3, 2009 at 4:15 pm

10 writers from BDD and Jeremy Tomasulo who helped us out with the Rockies preview made our own predictions for the upcoming year. Now, we’re no Sports Illustrated when it comes to predictions (take that however you want to) but fresh off of our impressive run in last year’s postseason, we’re ready to put our two cents out there for everyone to enjoy… or mock. Also, following our predictions is a graph based on CHONE win projections with each team’s chances of reaching X amount of wins. Thanks to Bill Baer for his work here.

Three things you can count on in life these days — death, taxes and the Mets collapsing in September. Based on our writers’ predictions, the Mets should survive this September’s collapse… good thing for them there’s a few games in October to make up the ground they should lose in September. As a group, nine of th 11 writers chose the NL East runner-up as the Wild Card making last year’s World Champions the consensus selection to represent as the National League Wild Card.

1. New York Mets
Joe Hamrahi’s Season Preview from March 22

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 7/5

Admittedly, I’m a Mets hater. Time and time again last year I called them out to be frauds and felt they didn’t do enough at the deadline to make the postseason. I was almost wrong. If you’re a Mets fan, you should be a little irritated that GM Omar Minaya lied to you when he claimed the corner outfield and the bullpen were not problems. Five of the 11 writers picked the Mets to win the division which means they believe the additions of K-Rod and J.J. Putz and the rest of the restructuring of the bullpen was enough to get that September monkey off their back. These predictions came out before the Gary Sheffield signing that is supposed to be made official before Opening Day… but it’s doubtful that will change anyone’s mind either way.

2. Philadelphia Phillies
Bill Baer’s Season Preview from March 30

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 7/4

If you weren’t a believer in the Phillies in ‘08 then it’s unlikely you are buying in ‘09. It’s hard to repeat… I repeat, it’s hard to repeat. Ask any team not from the American League East since 1979. Besides the ‘92-’93 Blue Jays and ‘98-’00 Yankees, 23 teams have tried and failed to repeat as World Champions. Three of the 11 predictors call for the Phillies to miss the playoffs completely. Their Opening Day roster is essentially the same and when you look at the changes — Out: Pat Burrell, Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick, J.C. Romero, Geoff Jenkins, Wes Helms, Tom Gordon, Tim Lahey (Tim Lahey???)… In: Raul Ibanez, Joe Blanton, Chan Ho Park, Scott Eyre, Matt Stairs, Miguel Cairo, Jack Taschner, J.A. Happ (or Gary Majewski) — it’s hard to say this team isn’t better on paper than they were at the beginning of ‘08. Maybe it’s Cole Hamels’ health that has some feeling the Phillies are ready to fall.

3. Atlanta Braves
Timm Davis’ Season Preview from March 7

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 3/1

The oddsmakers think the Braves have a better shot at winning their division than the American League Champion Rays have at winning their second division title in the AL East. That has to say something about how much the rotation has improved from one year ago… unless, of course, you were one of those that felt the ‘08 rotation was the best in baseball. (You know who you are!) Last year’s expected rotation of Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton and Jair Jurrjens never came close to even the lowest of expectations. If the same happens this year with Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens and Tom Glavine (eventually), it could be another long year in Atlanta.

4. Florida Marlins
Bill Baer’s Season Preview from March 16

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 14/1

On every one of our predictions, the Marlins and Nationals were either fourth or fifth. The Marlins were a pleasant surprise last year. They improved by 13 games over the 2007 effort which was good enough to keep their attendance at a Major League low and actually drop by roughly 35,000 fans. So, no matter where the Marlins finish in the standings, it’s pretty safe to say that no one in the Sunshine State will care very much.

5. Washington Nationals
Jeff Lubbers’ Season Preview from March 1

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 18/1

This time last year, the Nationals were receiving a decent amount of support after winning 73 games in ‘07. Some were even calling for them to post a winning record. Washington did nothing to keep that support after posting a league-worst 59 wins. Since then, the team added Adam Dunn and loaded their rotation with a handful of promising, unproven arms. An improvement on last season is expected again… but at 59 wins there’s little room to go down. Now, if they could just find their way out of the NL East cellar and stay out, that would be progress.

CHONE Projections (Graph Created by Bill Baer)