Friday, February 10th, 2012

BDD ‘09 Predictions — American League West

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Posted by Brian Joseph on Thursday, April 2, 2009 at 6:42 pm

Los Angeles Angels Logo10 writers from BDD and Jeremy Tomasulo who helped us out with the Rockies preview made our own predictions for the upcoming year. Now, we’re no Sports Illustrated when it comes to predictions (take that however you want to) but fresh off of our impressive run in last year’s postseason, we’re ready to put our two cents out there for everyone to enjoy… or mock. Also, following our predictions is a graph based on CHONE win projections with each team’s chances of reaching X amount of wins. Thanks to Bill Baer for his work here.

Despite their regular season success, the Los Angeles Angels were bounced out of the postseason in the ALDS which kept the AL West absent from the World Series for the sixth consecutive year. Six writers selected the ‘09 Angels to return to the postseason with an AL West division title while four chose the Athletics and one chose the Rangers. The two favorites — the Angels and Athletics — have injury (Angels) and experience (Athletics) questions throughout their rotation but that didn’t stop most of the team from picking one or the other to wear the AL West crown. Here’s our predictions:

AL West Predictions ‘091. Los Angeles Angels
Eric SanInocencio’s Season Preview from March 26

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 20/33

This year’s Angels will not be able to rely on second half help from Mark Teixeira. It’s unlikely they will have five starters with at least 160 innings each and are possibly going to use more different starters in April than they did in all of 2008 (7). And it’s fairly safe to say new closer Brian Fuentes won’t break the Major League record set by K-Rod as a member of the Angels when he closed the door on 62 saves. However, all that didn’t stop more than half of us from selecting the Angels to show the American League how the west was won… again.

2. Oakland Athletics
Jeff Lubbers’ Season Preview from March 12

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 19/10

The Athletics may have found a cure for the American League’s worst offense but it’s their unproven rotation that is the major factor on whether this club will be successful or not. With last year’s ace Justin Duchscherer still injured, the A’s start the ‘09 season with a rotation of 25-and-unders. The four of us who picked them to win the division obviously have faith in the young prospects quickly maturing into their new roles. The rest of us, aren’t so sure which lands them second amongst the consensus.

3. Texas Rangers
Matt Sisson’s Season Preview from March 13

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 9/1

It’s hard to imagine the Rangers turning in a collective pitching performance as bad as the ‘09 season but their rotation is relying on a few of the same names that landed them the at the bottom performance-wise of all teams in baseball. The team gave up over half a run more per game than any other in the Majors so there is a lot of room for improvement. On the offensive side, Josh Hamilton is back to lead their high powered offense and has looked ready to build on his 2008 success.

4. Seattle Mariners
Timm Davis’ Season Preview from March 2

BODOG Odds to Win Division: 11/1

The oddmakers have little faith in the Mariners in ‘09 and neither do we. Only Rob McQuown was brave enough to put them second with the rest of us putting them third or fourth with six out of 11 placing them at the bottom of the West.

CHONE Projections (Created By Bill Baer)

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One Response to “BDD ‘09 Predictions — American League West”
  1. Rob McQuown says:

    I found myself wondering who Oakland’s 2nd-most-valuable player was going to be in 2009, and couldn’t figure it out. Oakland will be a real test of Beane’s belief that it’s best to try to win without superstars (at least if you believe Moneyball).

    Seattle’s a dog with fleas, and I can see Texas rebounding under the theory that it’s a LOT easier to upgrade a deficiency to “average” than to upgrade an “average” position to “star”. But pre-ulcer, I thought Seattle had a chance to push past Texas with their improved defense and – presumably – some decent contribution from Bedard. Since sending in my picks, Morrow has been removed from the rotation, and Ichiro has gone on the DL, so it’s already looking like I blew this one. :(

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