BDD ‘09 Predictions — American League East
Posted by Brian Joseph on Thursday, April 2, 2009 at 3:40 pm
10 writers from BDD and Jeremy Tomasulo who helped us out with the Rockies preview made our own predictions for the upcoming year. Now, we’re no Sports Illustrated when it comes to predictions (take that however you want to) but fresh off of our impressive run in last year’s postseason, we’re ready to put our two cents out there for everyone to enjoy… or mock. Also, following our predictions is a graph based on CHONE win projections with each team’s chances of reaching X amount of wins. Thanks to Bill Baer for his work here.
So, why the pictures of the Yankees AND Red Sox logos on the front page? Taking a look at our consensus picks, we like the Yankees to win the division and Red Sox to earn the AL Wild Card. Actually, all 11 sets of predictions had the Wild Card team in the American League coming from the East. Here’s our predictions:
1. New York Yankees
Kris Pollina’s Season Preview from March 21
BODOG Odds to Win Division: 6/5
The Yankees only slightly edged out the Red Sox in our picks with only two of the 11 calling for the Yanks to miss the postseason for a second straight year. It’s hard to argue even with the absence of A-Rod for the first month of the season. The Bronx Bombers open their new stadium with the addition of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira. That’s a trio worth the price of their overpriced admission.
2. Boston Red Sox
Matt Sisson’s Season Preview from March 28
BODOG Odds to Win Division: 7/5
While six of us chose the Yankees, five chose the Red Sox. By no means were the Yankees a unanimous choice to be capture the AL East crown. Like the Yankees, two of the 11 kept the Red Sox out of the postseason which would be only the second time in the last 12 years that the Red Sox did not finish in the top two in the East.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
Jason Pafundi’s Season Preview from March 29
BODOG Odds to Win Division: 5/1
Last year’s AL East Champ failed to earn much respect when it comes to capturing the division crown but did show up as the Wild Card for four of the 11 BDD writers. While some Rays fans seem to take offense to the notion of their young club finishing third, only one AL World Series representative in the last six years has won their division the next season. Also, expansion teams are only three for 11 in following up their first division crown with a second one the very next season.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
Andy Spear’s Season Preview from March 18
BODOG Odds to Win Division: 30/1
Manager Cito Gaston put together a respectable record as the team’s skipper after the axe fell on John Gibbons. Gaston’s Jays went 51-37 (.580) but it wasn’t good enough to move them higher than fourth in the division. We like them to finish there again although like the top of the division, five of us like them to finish in the AL East cellar.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Brian Joseph’s Season Preview from March 5
BODOG Odds to Win Division: 45/1
Less than a week remains before Jeremy Guthrie faces off with CC Sabathia at Camden Yards. If that isn’t enough to tell you why the O’s are our pick for the basement, how about the fact that the third through fifth spots in the rotation are still undecided. If you like offense, this team is one you’ll enjoy watching because they should be one of the highest scoring teams and also have some pretty hefty runs allowed numbers, too.
CHONE Projections (Graph Created by Bill Baer)
The blue jays are actually a savvy pick for al east if the young arms respond (CAN U SAY TAMPA?)). The plus is they have better offense than last year with a healthy Hill, Travis Snider, and hopefully a full season from Wells and better years from Rolen and Rios. The blue jays were 51-37 under cito gaston (93-69 over a whole season) with basically less offense than last year and the same pitching as this year except for burnett and the young arms have a chance to do as well as his 4.01 era by mid season. Cito is underrated manger with a ton to prove as only black skipper with two world series rings and never rehired again. As good as Joe Torre or better but because he was black rationalization was that he had great teams (Torre didnt” ? wat happened the last 6 years you were there Joe? Yankees spent a lot more than bjs in those years) There is major competition for the last 2-3 pitching spots if some young guns falter on bjs and they will still have best bullpen in baseball. Yankees should be 5 games better…maybe ….but the division is really a toss up. Texeria and CC should more than offset ARODS problems but Burnett love overdue for elbow problems Boston and Tampa have not really improved. Penny may help Sox but there are many holes and they are aging. Tampa will still compete very well but they havent improved much on the field (can you say Detroits young pitching guns that looked invincible for a decade 3 years ago)a nd keeping last years intensity may be hard with young team. You get can 50-1 odds vs bjs making playoffs. Bet a few hundred bucks if u have to take a flyer on and put a down payment on a house as the eastern elite will give u the sucker bet as they love to drink the Kool aid. Better than giving your money to Bernie Madoff!!! Any of u guys above do that? be honest